Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 20 Nov 2024 15:01:43
Jimmy
Added a month ago

0221 GMT - The slump in Webjet shares that followed the deferral of the Australian travel agent's first-half results could represent a buying opportunity, according to RBC analyst Wei-Weng Chen. He doesn't see evidence to suggest that the deferral is related to issues at Web Travel, the larger corporate travel-focused entity from which Webjet recently demerged. He thinks that the fact that Webjet shares have continued to trade while Web Travel's have been halted suggests issues aren't material for Webjet or related to the demerger. He chooses not to speculate on Web Travel's warning that it may have to restate prior-year earnings. RBC has an outperform rating and A$1.30 target price on Webjet shares, which are down 9.8% at A$0.83. ([email protected])

0028 GMT - ReadyTech's bulls at Wilsons are unconcerned by the Australian software provider's modest moderation to its revenue outlook. They tell clients in a note that the company's guidance for FY 2025 revenue growth in the low double digits likely means 10%-12%. This isn't a big issue for them since their prior forecast of 12.5% was at the lower end of what they took to be earlier guidance of 12.5%-13% growth, or low-to-mid double digits. The Wilsons analysts suggest that market expectations will be conservative due to uncertainty over timing of contract implementations, but say that they continue to be positive on the opportunities ahead. Wilsons trims its target price 1.1% to A$3.70 and stays overweight on the stock, which is down 1.05% at A$2.84. ([email protected])

0027 GMT - Technology One's elevated earnings multiple looks defendable thanks to factors including the enterprise software provider's long-duration growth prospects and low churn rates, UBS analysts say. They acknowledge potential concern over the company's valuation at 59 times cash Ebitda, but see plenty of reasons to maintain their buy rating on the stock. They anticipate near-20% annual growth in pre-tax profit over the next five years, aided by a customer churn rate below 1%. The company's rule-of-40 performance looks good compared with that of Australia-listed peers, while A$219 million in net cash could support further bolt-on acquisitions. UBS lifts its target price by 29% to A$33.80. Shares are down 1.4% at A$29.04. ([email protected])

2359 GMT - Technology One's solid annual result shows the Australian software developer well placed as companies globally upgrade enterprise resource planning tools, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They tell clients in a note that more than 50% of chief information officers anticipate upgrading within the next two years. Technology One's early success in the U.K. and stronger-than-expected fiscal 2025 outlook suggests that the Australian company can benefit from companies' shift to cloud computing, they say. MS lifts its target price 68% to A$25.50 and stays equal-weight on the stock. Shares are down 2.6% at A$28.69. ([email protected])

2334 GMT - Robust travel demand and falling fuel prices keep Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew G. Scott bullish on Qantas Airways despite the Australian carrier's recent share-price gains. The stock is up more than 50% since the start of July but Scott tells clients in a note that valuation remains attractive. He points to improved domestic revenue expectations for the current fiscal half, likely benefits from capex and a fuel-price tailwind in support of this view. Management also looks set to pivot from buybacks to dividends in the current fiscal year, which Scott says will draw retail and income-focused investors. MS raises its target price 24% to A$10.50 and stays overweight on the stock, which is down 1% at A$8.88. ([email protected])

2321 GMT - Technology One's medium-term revenue goal already looks conservative to its bulls at Wilsons. The broker's analysts tell clients in a note that the enterprise software provider's short-term target of A$500 million in annual recurring revenue by the end of its current fiscal half looks very achievable. They point out that the Australian company reported A$470 million in ARR over fiscal 2024, a 20% on-year rise. Given this pace, Technology One's aim to hit A$1 billion by 2030 looks conservative to them even at this distance. They say that enviable cash generation looks likely to fuel strong organic dividend growth, with extra payouts possible. Wilsons raises its target price 47% to A$32.69 and stays overweight on the stock, which is down 0.9% at A$29.18. ([email protected])

2255 GMT - Santos gets a new bull following the finessing of its capital allocation framework. Citi upgrades Santos to buy, from neutral, assessing that the energy company's decision to return at least 60% of free cash flow to shareholders from 2026 represents an upgrade to yield. "This is because the capex requirements to maintain targeted production of more than 100 million BOE are modest in the second half of the decade, so the higher payout percentage more than offsets the inclusion of growth capex in the formula," analyst James Byrne says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2251 GMT - Healius could return some A$300 million to its shareholders from selling its imaging business Lumus, reckons Citi. Healius in September said it would sell Lumus to Affinity Equity Partners for A$965 million, but didn't specify how much of the proceeds would be returned to shareholders. Analyst Mathieu Chevrier thinks it could involve Healius declaring a special dividend of A$0.40/share. "We upgrade to Neutral on recent share price decline, sale of Lumus which will make Healius debt-free, and a pathology cost base now likely more reflective of true business-as-usual costs," Citi says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2212 GMT - Capricorn Metals's latest assessment of gold reserves at its Mt Gibson project in Australia is very positive, says Bell Potter. Capricorn lifted its reserve forecast by 41% to 2.59 million oz of gold. "On our data, the increased reserve positions Capricorn as the holder of the largest all-Australian ore reserve base among the ASX-listed producers," says analyst David Coates. This gives Capricorn more confidence about its long-term production and cash flow, he adds. Bell Potter thinks Capricorn's stock deserves a premium valuation to peers and that this "presents a competitive advantage in respect of funding and M&A." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2207 GMT - Engineering contractor SRG Global's run of contract wins puts an earnings guidance upgrade on the horizon, according to Bell Potter. SRG's latest batch of contract wins are worth some A$700 million, bringing the value of all new awards and extensions in FY 2025 so far to A$925 million. That represents one of the largest contract updates in SRG's recent history, analyst Joseph House says. Bell Potter's new FY 2025 Ebitda forecast of A$128.5 million is 2.8% ahead of SRG's guidance. "We emphasize an upward bias to our updated forecast, outlining that management's historical guidance beats have typically ranged 3-15%," Bell Potter says. It retains a buy call on SRG's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2205 GMT - Technology One's strong growth prospects are already factored into the enterprise software provider's valuation, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the Australia-listed company's first-half profit and U.K. growth were stronger than they had expected. They think that Technology One's fixed-price software-as-a-service offering is resonating with budget-conscious customers, and reckon that annual pre-tax profit growth of 15%-20% should now be seen as normal. Goldman lifts its target price 12% to A$26.90 on a higher earnings multiple but stays neutral on the stock despite bullishness elsewhere. ([email protected])

2202 GMT - Santos's new returns policy is underpinned by a lower sustainable annual production target of 100 million-120 million barrels of oil equivalent. Goldman Sachs assesses what that means for its pipeline of potential projects. The bank assumes the Papua LNG project in Papua New Guinea is developed and online in 2030. In a note, analyst Henry Meyer expects Santos to defer its Narrabri gas project in Australia beyond 2030 and that its Dorado oil project is developed over 2027-2030. Goldman Sachs also assumes the second phase of Santos's Pikka oil project in Alaska will be developed as backfill for the Phase 1 facility there. "Project sequencing will remain subject to potential divestment of interests in Dorado, Pikka, and Narrabri," Goldman says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2143 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 looks set to pull back from a record in early trade amid continued uncertainty about the timing of local interest-rate cuts and a mixed lead from U.S. equities. ASX futures are down by 0.2% ahead of Wednesday's session, suggesting that the benchmark index will initially retreat from Tuesday's record close of 8374.0. The ASX 200 has risen for four consecutive sessions, adding 0.9% on Tuesday even as minutes from the central bank's latest interest-rate meeting warned of impatience over stubbornly high inflation. In the U.S., the DJIA lost 0.3%, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively. ([email protected])

0416 GMT - Monadelphous gave a more upbeat outlook for FY 2025 at its annual shareholder meeting versus three months ago, says Citi analyst William Park. The engineering group has secured A$1.5 billion of work so far this fiscal year, accounting for roughly 70% of full-year revenue expectations and providing "solid top-line visibility," Park says. "We are particularly encouraged by favorable mix shift in segmental contract awards," which should support improved margins, he says. Citi has a buy rating and A$16.20/share target on Monadelphous. The stock is up 3.5% at A$12.95. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

9