Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 21 Nov 2024 15:00:13
Jimmy
Added 4 weeks ago

0354 GMT - Westpac joins economists pushing out their forecasts for a maiden interest-rate cut in Australia. It now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting rates in May, later than its prior forecast of February. "Similar to the pattern in some peer economies, we expect the initial moves to be somewhat front-loaded, with consecutive cuts in late May and early July," says Luci Ellis, Westpac's chief economist. This represents a change to Westpac's previous expectation of one cut per quarter. Still, Westpac continues to expect rates to reach a floor of 3.35% by the end of next year, down from 4.35% now. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0325 GMT - Packaging company Amcor's share price may not get a quick lift from its acquisition of Berry, reckons Morgans. The rationale for Amcor's all-stock offer of $14.7 billion makes sense and the financial metrics look solid, analyst Alexander Lu says. But the size of the transaction means the market may not reward Amcor any time soon, Morgans says. "We think the stock is likely to be rangebound in the near term until management can show that they are executing well," Morgans says. Amcor is targeting some $650 million of annual savings by the third year of ownership. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0321 GMT - Morgans agrees with Santos that backfilling existing LNG infrastructure is the best way to add value. The difficulty is in getting there, analyst Adrian Prendergast says. Gas fields supplying the GLNG facility are due to become depleted by the end of this decade, while operations in the Cooper Basin need significant innovation to unlock the Patchawarra, Granite Wash and deep coals to the north, Morgans says. GLNG is the larger hurdle to cross. Santos's answer appears to be to push forward with new gas from the Beetaloo/McArthur River. "An exciting growth project in years past that ended up taking a backseat to the heavy balance sheet load created by simultaneously developing Barossa and Pikka," Morgans says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0155 GMT - Nick Scali's freight issues look unlikely to be material for the Australian furniture retailer, analysts at Jarden write in a note. They add that A$18.6 million worth of products are being held up by freight delays, but only a small proportion of this is at risk of spilling over into 2H from 1H. They see some one-off costs related to China's dock storage costs, but note that these should not impact Nick Scali's underlying net profit. Jarden reiterates its buy rating on Nick Scali shares and keeps a target price of A$15.88 on the stock. Shares are up 0.7% at A$13.94. ([email protected])

0155 GMT - News Corp's Australia-listed securities are recommended by Jarden analysts as a better way of getting exposure to REA Group than buying direct shares in the real-estate advertiser. They tell clients in a note that the current valuation of News Corp-controlled REA implies that the market values the media conglomerate's remaining assets at between A$13.52 and A$17.02 per share. This compares with Jarden's estimate of A$20.64. Jarden lifts its News Corp. target price by 8.8% to A$49.80 and maintains an overweight rating on the stock, which is down 0.1% at A$48.49. News Corp owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. ([email protected])

0138 GMT - It isn't clear to Citi analyst Mathieu Chevrier whether Sonova's share of the hearing-implant market is at the expense of Cochlear. He tells clients in a note that Sonova called out solid market-share gains as well as overall market growth in reporting 18% on-year growth in 1H sales. The increase is well above the 10% volume growth anticipated by Cochlear over its 2025 fiscal year, but Chevrier isn't sure what is behind the difference. It could be that overall market growth is unusually strong, or that the share is shifting from Cochlear or privately held Med-EI. Citi has a neutral rating and A$305.00 target price on Cochlear shares, which are down 0.3% at A$296.99. ([email protected])

0040 GMT - Netwealth's growth in funds under administration looks priced in at the stock's current valuation, says Bell Potter analyst Hayden Nicholson. He tells clients in a note that the 3.9% rise in funds under administration between Sept. 30 and Nov. 18 largely involved an acceleration in net fund flows. This reflects the catch-up of transitioning client accounts and balances, he says. He acknowledges the wealth manager's confidence in its full-year outlook but makes no changes to his funds-under-administration or EPS forecasts. Target price rises 6.9% to A$27.80 on the healthy near-term outlook, but Bell Potter keeps a hold rating on the stock. Shares are down 0.5% at A$29.43. ([email protected])

0038 GMT - Wesfarmers' Kmart chain is growing share of Australia's department-store market while experiencing margin compression amid consumer caution, Goldman Sachs analysts write in a note. They tell clients that Kmart's everyday-low-price strategy and value focus are driving sales as customers trade down to lower price points in response to cost-of-living pressures. The GS analysts keep their group sales forecasts largely unchanged following Wesfarmers' latest trading update, but trim Ebit forecasts for the next three fiscal years by 4.4%, 3.8% and 3.3%, respectively. GS raises target price 4.4% to A$69.50 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$70.18. ([email protected])

2316 GMT - Accent Group's appointment of former Sports Direct CEO Dave Forsey to its board is seen by its bull at Citi as a possible sign that the U.K. sportswear retailer could be moving closer to launching in Australia. Citi analyst Sam Teeger points out that Forsey is Asia-Pacific general manager for Sports Direct owner Frasers. He adds that footwear retailer Accent's latest trading update is slightly softer than expected, telling clients that gross margin is being sacrificed in order to drive sales. Citi has a last-published A$2.57 target price and buy rating on the stock, which is down 10% at A$2.275. ([email protected])

2307 GMT - Nick Scali's brand and order volumes could suffer as a result of the Australian furniture retailer's problems with one of its freight forwarder, Citi analyst Sam Teeger warns. The ASX-listed company has been waiting on products in containers stranded due to the freight forwarder's financial problems, and Teeger points out in a note that customers are already writing negative online reviews about delayed deliveries. Teeger thinks Nick Scali's fiscal 2025 profit could take a A$3 million hit from direct costs, delays and canceled orders. Citi trims its target price 3.9% to A$15.31 but keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are at A$13.84 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2156 GMT - Packaging company Amcor's medium-term target of making $650 million of annual savings from its takeover of Berry looks achievable to Jefferies. Half of those savings are likely to come from cutting jobs and the benefits of greater scale in manufacturing. Amcor also expects to save some $60 million in lower net interest costs. "We have long doubted Amcor's ability to deliver above low-single-digit top line growth given consumer packaging is a mature, low growth industry," analyst Henry Copley says. "The merger of Amcor-Berry helps challenge that belief, increasing exposure to the higher margin healthcare market, and diluting exposure to the challenged North American beverage segment." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2148 GMT - PWR Holdings, a provider of cooling systems to motorsports including Formula One, gets a new bull in Citi despite hitting a recent speed bump. Analyst Jack Dunn thinks it's understandable that investor optimism has been dented given the loss of three niche EV programs and a softer aftermarket, among other issues. PWR's stock fell as much as 1/3 in value after Wednesday's update, closing at A$6.85. "We view the share price reaction as overdone," Citi says. It highlights Aerospace and Defence as the key driver of long-term growth for the company. PWR expects revenue from that business to be up 67% in 1H of FY 2025. Citi moves to buy, from neutral, but lowers its price target by 13% to A$9.45/share. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0421 GMT - WiseTech's relatively slow hiring activity so far in fiscal 2025 can be interpreted in two ways, Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed says. He tells clients in a note that the more positive interpretation is that the logistics software provider's annual Ebitda guidance is conservative. This is Ahmed's view, and he sees upside risk to guidance. On the other hand, it could be seen as indicating a softer revenue outlook. Undercutting this possibility is the fact that the volume of WiseTech's job listings started to pick up from October, after lagging prior year trends in the September quarter. Citi has a last-published buy rating and a A$124.50 target price on the stock, which is flat at A$138.875. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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