Forum Topics IGO IGO Company Strategy

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

14-Sep-2024: Update: I haven't looked at IGO in detail for a few years. I used to hold them, and made money on them in prior years but have been out for a couple - and their share price has been declining progressively since mid-July 2023 (last year) when they were almost $16/share to a recent low of $4.71 (intra-day on Wednesday - 11-Sep-2024 - i.e. Wednesday of this past week). They closed yesterday at $5.39, i.e. close to a 3-year low (they were last down at these levels in late 2020).

There have been some headwinds, including:

  1. IGO's then CEO & MD, Peter Bradford, sold their 30% of Tropicana - a world-class gold mine in WA - for a very attractive price (to Regis Resources - RRL) and took IGO further into battery metals via lithium JVs with Chinese company Tianqi Lithium Corporation (Tianqi), and lithium has since collapsed, highlighting that Tianqi have the best end of that deal, at IGO's expense;
  2. Peter Bradford unfortunately passed away in October 2022 and their new CEO/MD, Ivan Vella was eventually announced as Peter's replacement but didn't take over the top job until December 2023, so there was a leadership vacuum there for a while dispite there being people filling the CEO role on an interim basis between Bradford and Vella;
  3. IGO's other main commodity, Nickel, also went off a cliff, in terms of price, and IGO's prior acquisition of Western Areas - which came with its Forrestania nickel concentrate producing operation plus their Cosmos nickel development project - turned out to be a very bad move - as with the benefit of hindsight, they overpaid and failed miserably in terms of DD because the book value of those assets were subsequently written down by hundreds of millions of dollars. In short, the WSA acquisition was a disaster for IGO. The MD/CEO of Western Areas up until the sale, Dan Lougher, turned up as the new boss at gold miner St Barbara shortly after the WSA sale to IGO, and Dan oversaw the divestment of all of SBM's Leonora assets to Genesis Minerals (GMD), and then retired once more, after a very short stint at SBM. In that case, GMD got the better end of that deal by a good margin, but SBM were in a very poor negotiating position because of their debt and the fact that they were about to breach banking/lending covenants (on June 30, 2023) if they didn't complete that divestment for cash and pay off that debt. But this point is about the nickel price collapsing right after IGO paid top dollar for Western Areas, another nickel miner;
  4. Apart from the lithium price being so low, the lithium hydroxide plant in Kwinana (just south of Perth in WA) that IGO own a stake of alongside Tianqi is only running at a fraction of its nameplate capacity due to numerous issues; and
  5. IGO's return on expenditure on exploration has been fairly dismal as well.

So, they held a strategy day on Thursday (12th Sept) and here's their presso from that: IGO Strategy Day Presentation.PDF

In short, they are still committed to battery metals, but want to get into copper now, even if it means buying a minority stake in an overseas copper project.

The market was somewhat impressed clearly, as IGO's SP rose +6.8% on the day, to $5.48, but then slipped back a little (-1.64%) to $5.39 on Friday. It probably pays to put that +6.8% rise on Thursday into the context that they'd just hit their lowest share price since late 2020 the previous day ($4.71 intraday on Wednesday 11th Sept), so the base they were coming off was mightly low.

The MoM poddy lads discussed this IGO strategy day presentation for around 17 minutes on Thursday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T1TA53yD-k&t=2024s

I'm not tempted - IGO is a $4 billion company that was a $12.4 billion company on 7-Oct-2022 when their share price was $16.38 and they had the same number of shares on issue (757,267,813 shares), so they are now a reasonably large ship that may be hard to turn around, especially as they're tethered to these JVs, including the major one with Tianqi, the Chinese lithium "major" who can't get their lithium hydroxide plant to run @ Kwinana. AND they want to do more deals like that, except in copper. Hopefully not with a Chinese company this time.

Not a company I'm following now, but I did have another look at them based on the MoM coverage of IGO's strategy day, and... yeah, nah, not for me now. Not this year anyway.

Chagsy
Added 4 weeks ago

@Bear77 I think IGO is getting interesting again now.

It has one of the lowest cost Li mines in the world and 1/2 a billion in cash with no debt

It probably only has to not do something stupid in the next 12-24 months to get a massive re-rate as the Li price recovers - which it will. Like all commodities: feast or famine.

I am not too sure that they can be trusted to "not do something stupid" though. That cash will be burning a hole and someone will have a really clever idea about how to put it to good use, like buy a Copper mine in Mali.

It's definitely on the watch list for me. I managed to do quite well out of the last Li bull run with this one and hope to do the same again.

C

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Bear77
Added 4 weeks ago

I remember the MoM lads analysing a conference call that IGO had recently @Chagsy, a month or two back - I think it was their strategy day presentation in September - and they (IGO) were talking about searching for some more JVs to enter into, in different metals. I remember coming to the opinion at the time that the strategy they were outlining was not one that I liked much, particularly as they seem happy enough to partner with Chinese companies like Tianqi which may muddy the waters in terms of future lithium sales to the USA or Japan or anybody else who wants to rely less on Chinese controlled companies or even part-Chinese-owned suppliers.

IGO are also happy to be the junior partners in JVs, for instance they only own around one quarter of Greenbushes (49% of TLEA which owns 51% of Greenbushes, with Albemarle owning the other 49%) and 49% of the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery (100% owned by TLEA which is 49% owned by IGO) and there have been some massive problems at that refinery, which brings into question just how much expertise Tianqi actually have if they can't get a hydroxide refinery running at capacity within a period of years, i.e. well beyond their original estimates.

Point is, IGO want exposure to these metals but are happy to take non-operating junior stakes in these JVs and leave the decision making to others, so in some respects IGO have chosen to NOT have too much control over their own future.

An example of where these JVs can impact your decision making capacity is MinRes' recent decision to put Bald Hill (spod mine) on C&M despite it having lower costs than Wodgina and Mt Marion. That decision is explained by Bald Hill being the only one of those three lithium mines that MinRes own 100% of. Wodgina is 50% owned by Albemarle who previously owned 60% of both Wodgina and Kemerton but now, following multiple changes to their joint venture agreement, MinRes and Albemarle own half each of Wodgina, and Albemarle owns 100% of Kemerton. That deal that Chris Ellison made to relinquish MinRes' stake in the Kermerton lithium hydroxide refinery for an increased stake in Wodgina spod mine and a massive cash payment from Albemarle was another smart move by CE because he could see just how much trouble ALL of the lithium refineries in Australia were having, and he realised that MinRes might have to take a massive write-down on Kemerton soon, as Albemarle did shortly after increasing their Kemerton ownership to 100%. However, MinRes only own half of Wodgina and that means that Albemarle have to agree before they can mothball Wodgina again. MinRes' third spod mine, Mt Marion, is once again only half owned by MinRes with the other half being owned by Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. (Ganfeng), another Chinese lithium company, so again MinRes can't mothball Mt Marion without Ganfeng agreeing.

The reason why these larger global vertically-integrated lithium corporations often want to keep producing lithium in Australia from these JVs even when the costs are higher than the price of spodumene is because they have offtake agreements and they need the spod for their refineries and/or because they have to supply a certain amount of lithium to other parties under existing contracts, so their decision making has other inputs than that of companies like IGO or MinRes.

That's why JVs have drawbacks or downside, especially when you're the junior partner, as IGO seem to always be.

Peter Bradford, when he was leading IGO, had a more sensible strategy I thought, although he also made his fair share of mistakes, however Ivan Vella has inherited a company with a perfect storm of headwinds, including being exposed to both nickel and lithium at the worst possible time, and then having to make massive writedowns on the Western Areas assets that IGO acquired for far too much. Real issues with their DD on WSA actually, but that's old news.

I'll have a look at IGO occasionally @Chagsy but I'd want to buy them AFTER the metals they are mining - or are directly exposed to - start rising at a decent clip, not before. And even then, only if they represented the best exposure to those metals, and I doubt they will, purely because they are junior partners. It's like buying Gold Road (GOR) for gold exposure - non-operating partners at Gruyere and owners of 17.85% of De Grey Mining (DEG). While GOR own half of Gruyere, a producing gold mine, and have cash, and DEG shares, they don't actually OPERATE any mines, so they are really passive players in gold, as IGO are in lithium. They have exposure, but very little in the way of control. Not sure if you need a highly paid Board and management team if you don't operate any assets to be honest. All they need to do is make wise capital allocation decisions, and IGO have a poor track record of that to date.

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