Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 25 Nov 2024 14:57:09
Jimmy
Added a month ago

0332 GMT - Megaport's uncertain earnings outlook costs it a bull at Jefferies, where analyst Roger Samuel is still waiting on operational improvement from the telco-services connectivity provider. Samuel lowers his recommendation on the stock to hold from buy, telling clients that the improvement he had been looking for by the end of the current fiscal year now looks unlikely. He sees ongoing strategic hiring in sales staff as a good move but writes in a note that operating leverage will be hard to achieve in fiscal 2026 without an acceleration in revenue growth. Target price falls by 24% to A$8.40. Shares are down 1.3% at A$7.47. ([email protected])

0307 GMT - Megaport's bull at Macquarie sees potential for the Australian tech-services provider to beat its annual revenue guidance on the proportion of orders fulfilled as direct sales. Macquarie's analysts point to the company's incremental investment in new sales staff, telling clients in a note that this suggests upside to revenue thanks to the higher gross margins on direct sales. They also say that recent results from listed U.S. partners suggest a slightly more buoyant operating environment, but warn that it is too early to see any sales impact on Megaport. Macquarie trims its target price 4.7% to A$10.20 and keeps an outperform rating on the stock. Shares are down 2.0% at A$7.42. ([email protected])

2343 GMT - Autosports Group keeps its bull at Wilsons despite its first-half profit guidance falling short of analysts' expectations. The broker's analysts are cheered that the Australian vehicle retailer appears to be past the worst regarding sacrificing margin to maintain revenue. The margin sacrifice was larger than anticipated, but they remain positive on sales momentum across used vehicles and see potential for Autosports to benefit from industry consolidation. Wilsons cuts its target price by 16% to A$2.86 but stays overweight on the stock, which is down 1.75% at A$1.965. ([email protected])

2334 GMT - The Greenbushes lithium mine jointly owned by IGO, Tianqi and Albemarle has the most competitive costs of any major Australian hard-rock operation, even when calculated using different measures, Macquarie analysts say. Pilbara Minerals' Pilgangoora mine has the second-lowest C1 unit costs, which remain at a low level with sustaining capex included, the analysts say in a note. By contrast, Mineral Resources has cash costs that are estimated to be above current spodumene prices when sustaining capex is included, they say. The miner has flagged measures that could help to reduce costs. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2321 GMT - GQG Partners' exposure to Adani Group will likely play out over the medium-to-long term as an investment mistake, Morgans analyst Scott Murdoch reckons. He sees the initial direct impact on funds under management and earnings as negligible, but warns the recent underperformance of GQG's emerging markets fund will be exacerbated by its holdings in the troubled Indian conglomerate. He tells clients in a note there is a risk of short-term reputational damage from the Adani exposure, but sees GQG well placed over the longer term to benefit from improving markets. Morgans cuts its target price by 20% to A$2.47 and lowers its recommendation to hold from add. Shares are up 0.5% at A$2.22. ([email protected])

2243 GMT - The share-price pullback that followed WiseTech Global's guidance downgrade is deep enough to lure a new bull to the logistics software developer. Morgans analyst James Filius says in a client note that the stock is trading at an increasingly attractive earnings multiple, and that its upcoming investor day looks like a potential catalyst. He says initial findings of WiseTech's review into founder Richard White appear to put a number of allegations to rest. WiseTech's comment that it will mitigate the impact of delayed revenue suggest possible product developments, Filius adds. Morgans rolls its valuation forward and lifts its target price 18% to A$135.30. It upgrades its recommendation to add from hold. Shares are at A$121.74 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2225 GMT - Morgans largely shrugs off Lovisa's sluggish recent record of store openings, touting the ultimate prize as enormous. Lovisa's store network has expanded by 27 in FY 2025 so far, bringing its total footprint to 927 stores. Analyst Alexander Mees is encouraged by Lovisa picking up the pace of openings in recent weeks. Still, it hasn't been happening fast enough to prevent Morgans from paring its FY 2025 forecast for net additions to 102 stores, from 142. Longer term, Morgans estimates Lovisa could have 4,000 stores or more in time and retains an add call on its stock. "We see a greater number of openings in 2H (63) than in 1H (39)," Morgans says. "But it is the long-term growth that really holds the appeal and more than justifies the stock's premium multiple." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2200 GMT - A2 Milk's maiden dividend policy creates a 2.5% yield that should grow over time, Macquarie says. A2 Milk says it plans to pay out 60%-80% of net profit as ordinary dividends, starting from 1H of FY 2025. "We think this signals confidence in ability to complete supply chain investment and maintain flexibility around growth and risk mitigation," Macquarie says. It can also broaden A2 Milk's investment appeal to yield investors, the bank adds. It retains a neutral call on A2 Milk's stock and trims its price target by 3.4% to A$5.70/share. A2 Milk ended last week at A$5.45. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2157 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Bell Potter doesn't think its guidance downgrade is at all bad given recent management turmoil at the logistics software provider. Analyst Chris Savage tells clients in a note that the product-launch delay that led to the downgrade only pushes back expected revenue into a later reporting period. The income isn't lost, he stresses. He says that other new products are on track. Savage rolls forward his valuations by a year and reduces his market-risk premium, lifting his target price by 13% to A$140.00. Bell Potter keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is at A$121.74 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2149 GMT - The potential for more China stimulus helps to underpin Citi's bullish view of A2 Milk. Analyst Sam Teeger highlights that China will be holding its Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December. Officials could outline further plans to boost the birth rate, an issue which China has acknowledged needs to be addressed in recent months. Citi thinks China's Two Sessions meeting in March could be another catalyst if it leads to more stimulus announcements. Citi raises its forecast for FY 2025 revenue growth to 7%, from 5.6%, reflecting the midpoint of A2 Milk's new guidance range. Still, it thinks guidance of mid-to-high single digit revenue growth may be somewhat conservative.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2147 GMT - The size of WiseTech Global's revised revenue and earnings guidance ranges suggests the logistics software provider's confidence in its outlook has declined, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel says. He points out in a note to clients that, as well as being lower than prior guidance, the top and bottom ends of its guidance ranges are now further apart. Samuel doesn't think a single product delay could be responsible for such a downgrade, and worries about delays to more products and the potential for headwinds in WiseTech's core business. He raises his target price by 18% to A$124.50 on higher long-term revenue growth assumptions, but keeps a hold rating on the stock. Shares are at A$121.74 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2142 GMT - Jefferies is less bullish about Lovisa's store rollout plans. Analyst John Campbell cuts expectations for Lovisa's footprint across FY 2025-2027, driving a 9.7% drop in the bank's price target to A$28.00/share. Jefferies now expects 79 net stores additions in the current year, down from 114. It highlights that finding quality store locations at the right rent is a constraint on Lovisa's growth. "Positively, Lovisa isn't opening stores just to meet expectations and we believe store economics are unchanged," says Jefferies. "But medium term, the only option is to accept lower store growth." Lovisa ended last week at A$27.19. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2133 GMT - For investors in Metcash, patience may be needed. Metcash is due to report its 1H result on Dec. 2. Jefferies thinks its outlook is key and likely to reflect challenges across all businesses. "Food is challenged by disinflation, consumer focus on value and illicit tobacco," analyst Michael Simotas says. Liquor is growing share but market conditions have deteriorated. Hardware/Total Tools is feeling the pinch of weak construction activity. "Valuation is undemanding but trends could get worse before they get better," says Jefferies, which retains a hold call on Metcash. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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