Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 28 Nov 2024 14:57:42
Jimmy
Added one year ago

0335 GMT - Harvey Norman's stock price has caught up with where UBS analysts think it should be given the uncertain outlook for Australian consumer sales. They make only modest changes to their earnings forecasts following the appliance and homeware retailer's latest trading update, but lower their recommendation to neutral from buy. They tell clients in a note that the sales-growth acceleration they had anticipated due to an undemanding prior period has played out, and they are less bullish on the sales outlook from here. UBS keeps a A$5.00 target price on the stock, which is down 1.4% at A$4.83. ([email protected])

0315 GMT - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare loses its bull at Wilsons, where analyst Shane Storey points to gross-margin headwinds facing the medical-device maker over its next fiscal year. Storey tells clients in a note that the company's first-half result confirmed all the factors that have driven recent outperformance by its dual-listed stock. Its homecare unit has never been in better shape and tariffs don't look like a material threat, he adds. However, he sees rebalanced freight costs in fiscal 2026 and thinks that analysts are being too optimistic on margins. Wilsons trims its target price 0.2% to A$34.93 and lowers its recommendation to market weight from overweight. Shares are down 0.3% at A$34.48. ([email protected])

0309 GMT - Pro Medicus's proven ability to maintain a steady cadence of new contracts helps justify the imaging tech provider's premium valuation, according to its bulls at Goldman Sachs. The investment bank's analysts also see the Australia-listed company's A$24 million contract with NYU Lagone Health as evidence of the ability to upsell additional services to existing customers. They tell clients in a note that there is potential for Pro Medicus to renew or upgrade existing customers on favorable terms. GS lifts its target price 14.5% to A$221.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 10% at A$251.73. ([email protected])

0206 GMT - Web Travel's bull at Wilsons is pleasantly surprised by the travel booker's clarity on how it sees the path for revenue margins. Analyst Ben Wilson tells clients in a note that reiterated guidance for medium-term revenue margins of 6.5% and a fiscal 2026 earnings margin of about 50% lowers risk around forecasts. He acknowledges that hotel pricing remains open to uncertainty due to the high number of inputs, but keeps an overweight rating on the stock. Wilsons raises its target price by 6.7% to A$5.52. Shares are up 0.9% at A$4.845. ([email protected])

0137 GMT - IAG's A$855 million deal for 90% of RACQ's insurance underwriting business carries some risk of being blocked by Australia's competition regulator, Citi says. Upon completion of the deal, IAG will have exclusive rights to distribute RACQ-branded general insurance products in Queensland for 25 years. Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway notes that IAG's NRMA brand does not have a big position in Queensland. "The main risk would seem to be the combined concentration of IAG and Suncorp in the state post the deal," Citi says. "But, even so, this would not be as concentrated as some other industries suggesting there should be a good prospect of the deal being approved." IAG shares are 3.7% higher at A$8.48. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0030 GMT - Macquarie analysts aren't sure how Web Travel can drive operating leverage as the Australian travel booker grows total transaction value. They tell clients in a note that they expect Web Travel will be successful in growing total transaction value over the long term, but are less confident in its ability to improve leverage as it scales. They say that structurally lower margins make the corporate-focused business more reliant on cost control, while higher capitalization rates could reduce earnings quality. Macquarie raises its target price 7.8% to A$4.83 and stays neutral on the stock. Shares are up 0.6% at A$4.83. ([email protected])

0017 GMT - QBE remains Macquarie's pick of Australian general insurers after its September quarter boosted analysts' confidence in the success of its North American turnaround. Macquarie's analysts maintain an outperform rating on the stock, telling clients in a note that QBE's U.S. middle-market portfolio is rolling off faster than anticipated. This was positive given the North America hurricane season, they add. The analysts like the trajectory on catastrophe claims and QBE's reiterated guidance. Macquarie raises its target price 2.4% to A$21.30. Shares are up 1.7% at A$20.10. ([email protected])

0002 GMT - Rio Tinto's 2025 guidance--especially iron-ore shipments and unit costs--will be the focus for Morgan Stanley analysts at the miner's 2024 investor seminar next Wednesday. "We see minimal risks to 2025 consensus iron-ore shipments, while we are slightly above consensus on unit costs," they say. Consensus is for annual iron-ore shipments of 338 million tons, up 2% on year. The analysts also want to hear more about Rio's copper production outlook in light of operating challenges at the Kennecott operation. They expect an annual capex budget around $10 billion will be the new normal, and "will also look for more color on the company's M&A aspirations following the Arcadium acquisition." Rio's shares appeal at current prices, and is preferred over rival BHP, they add. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2253 GMT - Amcor's newest bull says the proposed acquisition of Berry cements confidence in the packaging company's earnings outlook. Macquarie upgrades Amcor to "outperform," from "neutral," after concluding that 8% compound annual growth in EPS to FY 2029 is achievable. Amcor has a medium-term target of making $650 million of annual savings from its takeover of Berry. In a note, Macquarie points out that Amcor has a good track record of wringing costs from acquisitions, illustrated by earlier deals for Bemis and Alcan. "We find that after a period of near-term consolidation, Amcor's share price did well during synergy realization period for both Bemis/Alcan acquisitions," Macquarie says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2239 GMT - QBE Insurance's latest snapshot of performance justifies the recent rally by its stock, Morgan Stanley says. QBE's shares have risen around 25% in value since late August. In a note, analyst Andrei Stadnik says QBE's 3Q update met expectations and showed pleasing progress on de-risking the U.S. portfolio with catastrophe costs running below budget. "We think this justifies recent 2x PE re-rating," MS says. "Yet QBE remains on 10.5x FY 2025 PE or below its 12x average. QBE needs consistent delivery to re-rate further." The next catalyst is QBE's annual result in February. MS says investors will be looking for a combined operating ratio outlook of at least 93%, plus potential for capital management. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2230 GMT - A particular positive in QBE's 3Q update is that the insurer's catastrophe claims are tracking in line with allowances for a second straight year, Morgans says. That has been achieved in a year of large claims for the insurance industry in general. QBE noted that industry losses could be more than US$100 billion, amplified by an active hurricane season in North America. "We think this gives greater comfort on the resilience and protections being provide by QBE's reinsurance program," analyst Richard Coles says of the 3Q update. Morgans retains an "add" call on QBE. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2218 GMT - Flight Centre's decision to repurchase A$140 million of convertible notes looks sensible to Jefferies. That's because it helps to simplify Flight Centre's capital makeup and reduces the potential dilution of its stock. "Given the 1.625% coupon on the repurchased notes is lower than the interest rate earned on cash, our net interest expense forecasts have increased by circa A$5 million annualized," analyst Michael Simotas says. "However, this was more than offset by the reduced dilution, resulting in circa 1% upgrades to diluted EPS." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

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