Forum Topics Highest conviction stock with great management you trust
laoshi
Added 2 months ago

Sorry for the slow reply but after confirmation of the FDA pivotal study announced today I am going to give OCC Orthocell my high conviction stock. I have been perplexed by how under appreciated OCC has been and I think it has been largely due to the biotech sector being out of favour.

It has 1 product already FDA approved (Striate) for dental repair with a $23M upfront exclusive license for distribution from BioHorizons, Remplir for nerve repair is already approved in ANZ and Singapore and successful trial results for OrthoATI for tennis elbow (applicable to other tendon injuries) and third product SmrtGraft for tendon repair.

Although I questioned the appointment of Kim Beazley to the board, the appointment of Fiona Wood was a good move and the strategic roll out of approvals in key markets has been successful.

If the sales of these products hit forecast Striate and Remplir could generate $300M in recurring revenue. The recent raise of $17M after a significant SP increase makes sense and the appointment of Senior US execs for Remplir all give me confidence in the management.

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GazD
Added 2 months ago

This is a bold call for your high conviction stock @laoshi and I’m 100% not being critical. Your conviction has prompted me to take another look…

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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Original post that started this thread:

By Duffshot38


Highest conviction stock with great management you trust


Got asked this question by a friend recently and right at the moment I struggled to give him a confident answer off the cuff.


Really curious on what others would say right now. Assume you were investing a chunk of capital today and had a 3 year horizon.




I've just repeated this to get it up the top of the thread where it belongs. Just a quick tip guys and gals - when adding to these threads, especially when responding to a question, please use the "REPLY" button, not the "Add New Post" button, because adding a new post places it at the top and stuffs up the sequence and people can't read the posts in the order they were written, whereas using the "Reply" button will place your comment or post below, where it should go.

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Rocket6
Added 2 months ago

I will (perhaps predictably) nominate Smart Parking. Shares aren't cheap at the moment, but I also don't think they are ridiculously expensive. I have owned for over five years and haven't sold a single share, only buying over that time. I would be comfortable adding to my position today if it wasn't already such a big part of my portfolio.

Big fan of management. They are pragmatic, have some skin in the game themselves and understand the industry very well.

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jcmleng
Added 2 months ago

Agree with the challenge in doing this as @Solvetheriddle articulated. High conviction on the prospects/opportunity is one thing, price is quite another, and they both need to make sense at the same time to open positions. While I have very high conviction on all listed here, the only one I would buy more off right now is AIM.

But a good exercise nevertheless!

CAT - decisive management-driven turnaround has been spectacular given the fall-from-grace basket case situation it was in, long growth runway ahead, laser focused on balancing profitability with growth

SDR - management clearly understands the industry, its TAM and the problems of that TAM, and is executing to fill the gap. Long growth runway ahead. Market does not seem to fully appreciate the industry problems and how SDR intends to solve them.

AVH - management really understands adjacencies to the core product, pivoted the strategy to embed the core product and tap the adjacencies, for minimal incremental effort/cost.

XRF - steady as she goes growth, very smart small but value adding M&A's, plain, simple "I'll-let-the-results-talk-rather-than-me" approach

AIM - super evangelistic CEO, deep moat, but upfront over-committing on expectations is a bit of a worry.

Discl: All Held IRL

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lyndonator
Added 2 months ago

Going by what I have been buying recently I guess my highest conviction would be either The Environmental Group (EGL) or AustCo (AHC)

AHC is very illiquid so hard to recommend to someone else, however they have steadily rising revenues and are sitting on a very reasonable P/E.

EGL seems to be in a good buying opportunity (assuming the issue they have with the contract in Singapore is a once off).

Similarly Audinate, could be a good buying opportunity as the bullwhip effect will swing back again (and I have used this to add more shares), however it is still looking pretty expensive from a P/E perspective.

I guess EGL would be my pick.

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