Forum Topics Highest conviction stock with great management you trust
raymon68
Added 2 months ago

Portfolio below- Gainers vs Loses

37 stocks here,

Checked the Gainers (green) 23,

Win loss ratio: 62% = 23/37 turns out this ratio is within general share selection expectations for a portfolio.

f85d966ff417b44ad41a8299f37b3468e172bc.jpeg

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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

There's 38 stocks @raymon68 - being 23 up and 15 down, so 23 out of 38 = 60.5% - still within expectations IMO, as the most the "losers" can fall by is 100% however the gainers can rise by well over 100%, such as EOL (+206.32%), SGI (+171.89%) and GNP (+140.13%) - all p.a. numbers now, from this month's report because we've gone over 12 months now.

Clearly those three companies I just mentioned (the first three in the table) are doing a lot of the heavy lifting here - i.e. if you removed just EOL we've got a significantly different outcome in TSR percentage terms. That would be a much bigger impact than removing the worst performer, AVH.

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rh8178
Added 3 months ago

Hi @Bear77 - thanks for the analysis - really interesting. From what I can see, the ASX 300 accumulation index has generated a 5.8% in the same time period. Fair to say, a handy outperformance. Of course, it's only 1 year, and not the point given it's a 3 year experiment, but a very good start!

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RogueTrader
Added 2 months ago

Very interesting @Bear77 ! I notice btw that one of my highest conviction stocks is also Seneca's "highest conviction pick for 2026" - XRF Scientific: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6i-eq-eZ00Y

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laoshi
Added one year ago

Sorry for the slow reply but after confirmation of the FDA pivotal study announced today I am going to give OCC Orthocell my high conviction stock. I have been perplexed by how under appreciated OCC has been and I think it has been largely due to the biotech sector being out of favour.

It has 1 product already FDA approved (Striate) for dental repair with a $23M upfront exclusive license for distribution from BioHorizons, Remplir for nerve repair is already approved in ANZ and Singapore and successful trial results for OrthoATI for tennis elbow (applicable to other tendon injuries) and third product SmrtGraft for tendon repair.

Although I questioned the appointment of Kim Beazley to the board, the appointment of Fiona Wood was a good move and the strategic roll out of approvals in key markets has been successful.

If the sales of these products hit forecast Striate and Remplir could generate $300M in recurring revenue. The recent raise of $17M after a significant SP increase makes sense and the appointment of Senior US execs for Remplir all give me confidence in the management.

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GazD
Added one year ago

This is a bold call for your high conviction stock @laoshi and I’m 100% not being critical. Your conviction has prompted me to take another look…

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Bear77
Added one year ago

Original post that started this thread:

By Duffshot38


Highest conviction stock with great management you trust


Got asked this question by a friend recently and right at the moment I struggled to give him a confident answer off the cuff.


Really curious on what others would say right now. Assume you were investing a chunk of capital today and had a 3 year horizon.




I've just repeated this to get it up the top of the thread where it belongs. Just a quick tip guys and gals - when adding to these threads, especially when responding to a question, please use the "REPLY" button, not the "Add New Post" button, because adding a new post places it at the top and stuffs up the sequence and people can't read the posts in the order they were written, whereas using the "Reply" button will place your comment or post below, where it should go.

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