I’m not generally interested in talks about the ‘Trump Trade’ in the financial media, but...

I think I may have found a potential opportunity among the noise.

I expect Trump to me more disruptive than the market seems to expect – especially in the first week / month as he looks to rush though appointments, orders, pardons and policies. Dictator for a day, you won’t need to vote again, retribution and all that.

I certainly think he has the potential to cause some big surprises and unleash some short term volatility and I want to be ready for potential opportunities from this in case they do eventuate.

Trump is generally thought to be good for (US) markets via deregulation, corporate tax cuts and tariffs.

But if he goes buck wild in the early days with his ‘yuuge mandate’, army of loyalists, project 2025 agenda, etc this could upend that narrative real quick.

Hopefully I am all lined up ready to act and then nothing happens but if not …

Timing

From inauguration on Jan 20th (maybe leading up to but more likely after).

ASX is usually on low volumes until after 26th Jan (could be different this year) – so potential for heightened volatility / lack of buyers.

What happens in Jan – Q2 & Q4 reporting for Appendix 4C’s (eg. 3DP), Mining companies resource updates (eg. MIN), regular voluntary quarterly updates (eg. DDR), confession season for 1H or FY Results in Feb.

Volatility in Jan could also set off some pre-emptive selling of stocks with more potential to disappoint in Feb.

Also if he looks to be successful at undermining the independence of Fed but I expect this may hit markets more slowly?

Approach

I am thinking most about stocks I want to hold for the long term with recent weakness that could fall heavily in a spooked / panicked market.

Any volatility might not last long as markets acclimate to the new normal.

I don’t expect highly valued Quality to sell off aggressively in the event of volatility but anything is possible.

I expect recent underperformers to potentially sell off in the absence if any updates to the contrary (uptick in underlying performance) or if they report poorly next time out.

Stocks & Events

DDR - 2 consecutive downgrades and no 31st Oct as @BullsWool noted – uplift expected from PC refresh cycle, AI.

AD8 - 2 consecutive downgrades with revenue and earnings going backwards in FY25 - uplift from bullwhip effect in next 12-18 months?

PWH – Earnings downgrades – investing now to grow A&D later (ST bad, LT good).

MIN – Very negative sentiment but declining risk (reduced debt from asset sales).

CHL – Revenue downgrades from botched M&A integration.

Stocks I’ve never held but find interesting

These are businesses I plan to do work on by end Jan-24.

EGL - @mikebrisy, @Rick and others on SM cover this well

LYL - @Bear77, @PortfolioPlus and others on SM cover this well

IEL - @mikebrisy, @Solvetheriddle and others on SM cover this well

Keen for any Straw people insights / rebuttals on this or stocks to add to the hit list...

Disc: Hold DDR, AD8, PWH, MIN