Forum Topics AFI AFI Discount to NTA

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

I found this Morningstar article to be a balanced look at the whole discount to NTA discussion re AFI.

Not ground breaking by any means, but worth a read

Imagine overseeing a return of over 28% in a year and beating your benchmark, only to see all of that relative gain (and more) wiped out by something that isn’t under your control.


That’s exactly what the story has been at AFIC (ASX: AFI) recently, as its investments have outperformed but its discount to pre-tax net tangible assets (NTA) surged to 10%.


Solvetheriddle
Added a month ago

I have written repeatedly about the issues with LIC's, (again) they are the extra risk investors take on by discount emergence/widening discount. the interesting aspect of this one (to me anyway) is that AFIC is huge, usually it is a small LIC problem as they can't fractionalized the costs, and have trouble financing the marketing effort (critical for LIC's), but AFIC can, so even the big fish are not immune. i have no interest in LICs after running one for several years, yuck!

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Mujo
Added a month ago

I think they throw up some interesting opportunities. The small one's are a lost cause due to the costs as highlighted, but the bigger ones do have a place. I do think the space is closed to any new LICs and they will become a relic of the past.

ASX Best Listed Investment Companies - Affluence LIC Fund - Affluence has done a decent job over the longer term. Not sure whether the benchmark is right for them but interesting in any case.

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Hackofalltrades
Added a month ago

Do you know what is causing the discount to NAV?


Magellan ended up addressing that situation by converting one of their funds into an open fund, would something like that be likely to happen here?

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ArrowTrades
Added a month ago

Don't think that will happen here, The post tax NTA is below the share price and any conversion will likely have tax implications. Plus they wouldn't want to as they have the money locked up.

The SP to NTA fluctuates. Why is it at a big discount?.. Well why was it ever at a big premium?

LICs are on the nose in general atm, and an index hugging product like this is probably not that exciting in a raging bull market of Tech and cartoon Apes.


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Mujo
Added a month ago

I think AFI gets looked at by the market as a yield play. Stupid I know but when rates get cut retail investors will look at the div yield compared to the cash rate and my guess is it will move back to NTA or to a premium then.

I actually saw Bell Potter once use dividend growth model to value AFI - nearly fell off my chair.

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Arizona
Added a month ago

@Mujo Yes that seems to be the view of Morningstar also. Interest rates will fall and the discount to NTA will close.

"AFIC is not your average LIC when it comes to its historical discount (it has often traded at a premium), but Andrew Mitchell and Steven Ng’s article that featured on Firstlinks in June showed a convincing connection between higher interest rates and higher LIC discounts on average."


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lowway
Added a month ago

Some interesting points raised by all after the post from @Arizona I was (yep, past tense) a large holder over a long period mid-2017 to late September this year. I know in that time I created a capital gain of approx 25% (no tax in my SMSF pension mode fund) and dividend yield in total of approx another 25% plus franking credits. So @Mujo I guess that is why some recommend this stock as a potential yield type play, although I had been on board more for capital growth. Started at ~$6 and sold for $7.47/share, so 25% over 7ish years is not earth shattering, but it was reasonably staple at least with a low (like everything else on 23 March 2020) of $5.34 lifting to a high on 21 Jan 2022 of $8.64 and then slowly downhill from there to now, with a bit of a defection upwards of late.

I found other places to get a better yield and other places to get some decent capital growth, but it was sort of ok for a lazy combination that did a bit of both without risking too much of my hard earned Super. No regrets and certainly one that acted as a portfolio backbone for some time while I pursued other investments. Cheers AFIC!!

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