Forum Topics PME PME Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Two words keep me away from buying more of arguably the best business on the ASX - Competitive Response.

PME remind me of the old Bezos mantra of "Your margin is my opportunity."

Also the Innovator's Dilemma where Clay Christensen laid out the blueprint for a disruptor to launch a lower spec product at a lower price point where the incumbent will not want to go for fear of cannibalising their core market. Then build up from there.

With tech moving so fast and AI seemingly able to spin up applications with dizzying speed, there has to be some serious tech led (if not current competitors w added AI capability) incursion into their market. The Margins are just too attractive.

That said, plain speaking Sam seems to think they remain not only years ahead of their nearest competitor but that gap is widening.

I am expecting a credible competitive response to hit the news at some point and give a big shake to the winner takes all bull case.

Or some other hiccup, even if outside the company's control - this could be a cyber incident, a short report, etc, etc.

Shares hitting an air pocket could then be compounded by the momentum from passive funds buying it on the way up slamming into reverse.

When the squawking heads start talking about falling knives, the opportunity could really arrive.

I will then hopefully be able to add to my now tiny position after I sold most of it under $200.

Disc: Held

edgescape
Added a month ago

For the record, Bezos has tried many things to eat into market share into many businesses and failed

Amazon recently closed down their electronic fitness product Halo recently, which I think would have contributed to the positive momentum of Strawman favourite Catapult.

But back to PME, Unless I'm mistaken or missed something, I feel their business is quite sticky and it will be hard to move to another customer once they become familiar with a product.

That's because moving involves migration and this is a huge undertaking both in time, training and effort.

9749fa37e0e684bd7d7e1fc4e1bb57086ca8fa.jpeg

Even though I don't hold PME, I will readily defend here because there are too many bear cases which resulted me in a missed opportunity to purchase when the price was still reasonable.

26

Strawman
Added a month ago

You're right to highlight the massive switching costs for PME customers @edgescape. And given the recent discussion on Hemler's "7 powers", i'd add network effects, counter-positioning (at least compared to legacy solutions) and process power. And, as time goes on, branding too. It certainly helps explain the margins, ROIC, earnings growth and share price.

Would love to jump back on this rocket, but I'm with @Slomo in that I'll wait for a better buying opportunity. That's been a regretful stance through to now, but whatever i could've/shouldv'e/would've done previously, i find things a tad too ambitious for me to allocate any decent amount of money to right now.

20

Slomo
Added a month ago

@edgescape, definitely sticky. I don't think they've lost a customer - ever or for a very long time. Excellent evidence of Switching Costs in the 7 Powers vernacular.

However, they only have 7% of the market so far, so maybe it's not captured yet? Probably is just a matter of time but there's room for a well resourced competitor to chase high margins in a large and growing market. Not likely Amazon though.

Re Amazon trying and failing to eat the lunch of others - I'd say this is a feature not a bug.

@Strawman, I'd say branding is big deal for PME already.

I'm used to thinking of branding from a B2C perspective. But I think the reference sites concept you mentioned in @CanadianAussie's interview is a huge factor for PME - they've got the biggest and best in the US.

This is likely a good fit for Helmer's Brand Definition "The durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller."

(not identical but differentiated by huge industry acceptance).

Agree Network Effects (trained radiographers), Counter Positioning (streaming) and Process Power (installations) are Benefits and Barriers (i.e. Powers) for PME too.

Helmer looks for at least 1 but ideally 3 of the 7 Powers to be present from memory. We've come up with 5 here without trying too hard.

Value is a whole different assessment, that's the only place PME falls over as an opportunity for me.

16

edgescape
Added a month ago

Hey @Slomo

Still bitter from pulling the 38 dollar buy when @Strawman slammed a price target of 30 bucks!

13

Strawman
Added a month ago

haha, there's a lesson in that @edgescape

10

edgescape
Added a month ago

I didn't understand much at the time when I looked at PME.

I tried not to fall into the same trap when I did my own analysis of GTK, checked all the posts here and looked past the very high PER. Although this did take awhile because I had to really look under the hood which was not done here and elsewhere. I do have to thank that Morgan Stanley report for helping dive deeper though.

GTK though is lesser quality because they have the problem of convincing others to move off competitor software platforms that also happen to be sticky.

11