Forum Topics NTD NTD Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

NTAW Holdings is on the verge of collapse it seems:

1) CEO bails out (or pushed out) on December 13, 2024.

2) December 18, 2024 - Announcement of downgrade AND advising the company will breach its financial covenants in connection with its debt facilities.

3) January 9, 2025 - Receives notice of termination of Dunlop distribution agreement. This follows the acquisition of Dunlop brand and distribution assets in 2023/24. Apparently, NTAD has no right on the Dunlop Brand, which is controlled by Goodyear. They have sold the rights to the brand to Sumitomo.

Dunlop brands were planned to be the biggest seller for the business. It is unclear how they will repay the $86 million in borrowings.....


PortfolioPlus
Added 3 months ago

I missed the tell tail ‘Hansel & Gretel’ bread crumb droppings on this one…going back to the clusterf#@k ERP installation which cost $4m & was utterly useless…followed by a succession of acquisitions at the top of the cycle…overpaid and the inability to capture synergies because of their ridiculous Silo style business model where some 13 businesses operated independently. Bob Jane…the public knows and can even sing the jingle…National Tyre & Wheels..never heard of it.

Then, there is the overpaid CEO, and what an underperforming, arrogant goose he was. Saw his performance at an AGM a few years back and immediately thought, I must sell here…but didn’t pull the trigger till 6 months ago. So yeah, Porty is a goose as well. At least I have avoided the latest carnage.

I cannot see a survival here…the very best result will be a slow, painful slog out of the quicksand…but maybe the Smith and Jones families are up for the fight. They are certainly 30 feet underwater right now.

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Scoonie
Added 3 months ago

Rapstar and PortfolioPlus had a look at this. NTAW????  Did not initially recognise the name, however now see this is the old National Tyre and Wheel.  What a mess. When you see a school, person or company change its name there is a reason – and its always not a good reason.   

I see where the CEO Peter Lewd-mann (“lewd: crude and offensive in a sexual way”) hasn’t skipped his cornflakes, pulling in $1,008,000 last year. He even got a $200k cash bonus. As a commercial lawyer I can only think this bonus must have been paid for his careful drafting of the Dunlop Distribution Agreement.  

Pity the founder Terry Smith and his wife and any genuine shareholders caught up in all this. However have about as much sympathy for the smartypants at Collins St Value Fund as I do the CEO.

I guess out of it all at some point there will be a business break up and some gritty mechanic in the western suburbs of Sydney or maybe in somewhere in North Queensland will buy a piece of the shambles and do just fine. 

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