0347 GMT - The impact of the Los Angeles wildfires on QBE looks manageable for the Australian insurer, UBS analyst Kieren Chidgey says. The investment bank's U.S. insurance analysts estimate a US$20 billion industry loss from the fires, which Chidgey reckons could mean a US$65 million loss for QBE, which has less than a 1% share of the California market. This is comfortably within its capabilities and would leave QBE with ample catastrophe headroom through the remainder of its 2025 fiscal year, he writes in a note. UBS has a buy rating and A$23.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.7% at A$19.42. ([email protected])

0246 GMT - Yield-driven investors are likely to remain attracted to Australian insurers in the short term on the chance of higher-than-expected interim dividends, Macquarie analysts say. They point out that weather over the recent December half was very positive for IAG and Suncorp, without natural catastrophes that can hit Australian customers. They write in a note that this creates upside risk to ordinary dividends. Macquarie prefers IAG over Suncorp due to the latter's lack of reinsurance. Macquarie raises its target price on IAG by 8.75% to A$8.70 and on Suncorp by 5.9% to A$18.00. IAG is up 1.0% at A$8.485, while Suncorp rises 0.5% to A$19.27. ([email protected])

0200 GMT - Newmont has one of the strongest medium-term Ebitda growth outlooks among top gold stocks, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. In a note, they say Newmont's tier-1 operations support a five-year Ebitda compound annual growth rate of roughly 6%, versus a global peer average around 2%. The analysts initiate coverage on Newmont with a US$47.20 target on the miner's NYSE stock, a A$76.20 target on its ASX stock, and a buy call on both. Newmont's recent asset sales and improving cash generation should help it reduce debt and increase returns, say the analysts. The miner is also positioned for strong production growth. The analysts estimate a CAGR of roughly 5% on a three-year horizon, above most of its peers. Newmont is up 0.5% in Sydney at A$64.10. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0113 GMT - Electronics and entertainment specialist JB Hi-Fi looks to Macquarie analysts like it is the Australian retailer best-placed to benefit from the increasing importance to consumers of the Black Friday shopping period. The analysts tell clients in a note that the period is seen by consumers as a chance to pick up deeply discounted premium goods, and by retailers as a window in which to shift obsolete stock, acquire customers and maximize revenue. They don't think that the growth of Black Friday has increased the amount that consumers are spending over the year, and say that total trade over November and December was down 0.2% on year. ([email protected])

0054 GMT - Transurban may need to forgo some near-term free cashflow as a result of toll-road renegotiations with the government of Australia's NSW state, Morgan Stanley analyst Rob Koh reckons. He thinks that the most likely outcome is a protracted process, possibly without agreement. This would preserve the status quo. However, Koh concedes that an in-principle agreement on the government's aim of providing motorists with pricing relief remains possible. Koh tells clients in a note that the ASX-listed road operator is only likely to agree to changes that are neutral for asset value, but that there could be a short-term impact on cashflow. MS has an equal-weight rating and A$13.33 target price on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$13.645. ([email protected])

0013 GMT - Premier Investments' bulls at Morgan Stanley see the Australian retailer's challenges as structural rather than cyclical. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that Premier's fiscal first half has been more challenging than they had anticipated, but that they stay overweight on the stock. Supporting factors include growth optionality, catalysts from the demerger of its apparel brands, its strong balance sheet, track record and what they see as cyclical tailwinds. Little of this is factored into Premier's share price, they say. MS cuts its target price by 5.1% to A$37.50. Shares are down 4.1% at A$26.64. ([email protected])

2357 GMT - City Chic's latest trading update leaves Citi analyst James Wang feeling less optimistic about the Australian clothing retailer's chances of meeting its annual revenue and earnings guidance. He tells clients in a note that the women's apparel specialist needs to grow 2H sales by 20% on-year to hit its revenue guidance, something that looks difficult against the current consumer backdrop. He reckons there could be some improvement in 2H and likes the inventory position, but points out that City Chic's fiscal 1H is typically a bigger contributor than the second to its annual result. Citi has a buy rating and A$0.25 target price on the stock, which is up 15% at A$0.11. ([email protected])

2254 GMT - Auckland International Airport could upgrade its FY 2025 guidance at its 1H result next month, reckons RBC Capital Markets. Auckland Airport has signaled an annual net profit of NZ$280 million-NZ$320 million. The company raised NZ$1.4 billion of equity in September, and RBC thinks savings on net finance cost will support an FY 2025 guidance upgrade. "With the earlier-than-expected equity raise, we expect the development to be accelerated and for the FY 2025 capex guidance (was NZ$1.0 billion-NZ$1.3 billion) to be raised," says RBC, which rates Auckland Airport at outperform. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2242 GMT - Premier Investments' weaker-than-expected guidance caught Goldman Sachs analysts by surprise even though they were already cautious on the Australian retailer's apparel operation. Analysts Lisa Deng and James Leigh lower their annual Ebit forecast for Premier's Peter Alexander sleepwear brand by 12%, and for its Smiggle stationery chain by 23%. They tell clients in a note that the disappointing outlook for both signals a loss of operating leverage, and leaves them wondering whether the change is cyclical or structural. There is potential for further deleverage if sales are not restored, they add. Goldman Sachs cuts its target price on the stock 14% to A$27.85 and maintains a neutral rating. Shares are at A$27.78 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2234 GMT - Premier Investments' first-half guidance raises questions at Citi over whether the Australian retailer can sustain growth at its Peter Alexander sleepwear business. Analyst James Wang wonders whether he and others have become too comfortable in assuming Peter Alexander can keep growing revenue at the same pace. He warns in a note to clients that it is impossible to be certain without further disclosure by the company. Lower growth at Peter Alexander has implications for longer-term earnings and Premier's valuation multiples, he adds. Citi lowers its target price on the stock 17% to A$30.00 and maintains a neutral rating. Shares are at A$27.78 ahead of the open.([email protected])

2230 GMT - Contact Energy loses a bull in Forsyth Barr after investors piled into the stock ahead of its likely inclusion in the MSCI Standard Index. Contact's share price is up some 4.8% at NZ$9.20 since Dec. 20, and touched a high of NZ$9.80 just before the end of last month. That rally leads Forsyth Barr to downgrade Contact to neutral, from outperform. Analyst Andrew Harvey-Green says Contact's elevation to the index is likely to come at the expense of Mercury NZ. "Our analysis indicates that, all other things being equal, Mercury NZ's share price needs to increase to NZ$7.24 during the 10-day pricing period (starting 20 January 2025) to remain in the MSCI Index, which would be its highest share price since January 2021," Forsyth Barr says. Mercury NZ is at NZ$5.90 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2212 GMT - Toll road owner Atlas Arteria is likely to signal another year of distribution growth when it reports its annual result next month, reckons RBC Capital Markets. Atlas Arteria has signaled a total payout of A$0.40/share for 2024, and RBC thinks it will lift this to A$0.42/share in 2025 while acknowledging this isn't a consensus view. "We expect Atlas Arteria to defend its A$0.40/share 'floor' distribution and see potential for some further growth in 2025 following the recent restructure of its APRR holding and the associated Eiffarie debt amortization profile," says RBC, referring to the company's French business. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2206 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 looks set to pare its recent losses when the local share market open. ASX futures are up by almost 0.5% ahead of the Tuesday's session, suggesting that the benchmark index should claw back some of the 1.9% decline compiled over three consecutive losses. Ahead of the open, online vehicle classifieds group CAR said it was exiting tire sales following a strategic review. U.S. indices provided a mostly positive lead despite weakness in tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% and the S&P 500 gained 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4% for a fourth straight decline. ([email protected])

2202 GMT - Constellation Brands's 3Q result isn't great news for winemakers with U.S. operations such as Treasury Wine Estates. According to Jefferies, the result adds to the lengthening list of data pointing to weakness in U.S. wine. Analyst Michael Simotas says risks are building for Treasury Wine's Americas business. Still, Jefferies thinks "higher-priced wines are performing much better, and Treasury Wine's repositioning has left it with a much more premium portfolio than Constellation, implying it should perform better than the data suggest." It remains positive on Treasury Wine, citing potential upside from its DAOU and Frank operations in the U.S. and growth in its Penfolds business. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2150 GMT - The power outage that forced Viva Energy's Geelong refinery temporarily offline serves as a reminder of the fragility of refineries and the operating deleverage when such incidents occur, Jefferies says. In a note, analyst Michael Simotas says the plant's restart should be relatively straightforward and the impact on Ebitda will likely be modest. Still, it will compound planned 2H maintenance, making 2025 a weak year for refining, Jefferies says. "Refining is becoming a smaller contributor and we remain positive on Viva Energy given the resilience of Commercial and upside from Retail," the bank says. It retains a A$3.50/share price target on Viva Energy, which ended Monday at A$2.67. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires