0329 GMT - South32 will likely need to shutter its Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine in northern Colombia "given the depressed outlook for the nickel market," Jefferies analysts say. The asset is unprofitable based on their forecasts, the analysts say in a note. A closure of the operation would have a positive impact of around A$0.15/share on South32's net present value, they estimate. Results of a strategic review of the Cerro Matoso operations are expected next month alongside 1H earnings. Jefferies has a hold rating and A$3.40 target on South32. The stock is up 0.6% at A$3.50. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0329 GMT - Suncorp's first-half results should be strong enough to support the stock's recent strong momentum, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says. Citing the positive impact of benign weather on Suncorp's insurance margin, Pittaway projects Suncorp to report an estimated A$165 million of favorable variance. This is unlikely to affects its full-year underlying margin guidance, he says in a client note. He lifts his annual EPS forecast by 5% but maintains his preference for IAG and QBE over Suncorp. Citi stays neutral on Suncorp and lifts its target price on the stock by 7.3% to A$19.90. Shares are up 0.6% at A$19.70. ([email protected])

0258 GMT - Young Australians are more optimistic about their short-term financial outlook than consumers generally, which UBS analysts flag as potential good news for those retailers pitching to them. A UBS note to clients says a bank survey shows income stability boosting confidence of young Australians, while cost-of-living pressures seem to be less pronounced than for the average consumer. Spending intentions for those between 25 and 34 years old are rising significantly, the note says. Universal Store, Lovisa, Guzman Y Gomez, Accent Group, Premier Investments, Domino's Pizza, Collins Foods, JB Hi-Fi, KMD Brands and Super Retail Group are most exposed to youth consumers, the note adds. ([email protected])

0245 GMT - Bell Potter is "cautiously bearish" on Lynas Rare Earths, because of expectations neodymium-praseodymium prices will be lower for longer, analyst Regan Burrows says in a note. "LYC has already run ahead of pricing, we estimate the current stock price factors in a circa US$99/kilogram NdPr price into perpetuity," Burrows says. BP estimates a FY25 NdPr price of US$86/kilo. "Whilst LYC has strategic value, its revenue and earnings are still dependent upon a China derived price," Burrows says. The broker has a hold call and A$7.20/share target on Lynas, down from A$7.70 previously. The stock is down 2.4% at A$6.865. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0245 GMT - Megaport's recent step-up in hiring indicates to its bull at Citi that the Australian tech-services provider is on course to achieve its annual guidance. Analyst Siraj Ahmed reiterates his buy rating on the stock, telling clients in a note that Megaport's headcount is up by 20% on year. He reckons that this is a sign that revenue momentum is tracking at least in line with fiscal 2025 guidance. He also thinks there is an additional tailwind from currency movements, and sees potential for Megaport to beat fiscal 2026 expectations due to growth in data centers and new products. Citi cuts its target price 44% to A$9.00. Shares are up 3.6% at A$7.79. ([email protected])

0043 GMT - There is no obvious reason to expect Insurance Australia Group's good share-price run to stop now, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway writes in a note. He keeps a buy rating on the stock, telling clients that benign weather is likely to help the ASX-listed insurer's first-half performance. He sees IAG's profitability outlook remaining strong and is positive on investment returns. Although IAGs full-year allowance is higher than its modeled natural perils, Pittaway doesn't currently expect it to alter its annual guidance. Citi raises its target price 1.0% to A$9.55. Shares are up 0.6% at A$8.71. ([email protected])

0040 GMT - Gold Road's positive maiden study for the satellite Gilmour project adds incremental value and options for the miner near the Gruyere operation in western Australia that it owns with Gold Fields, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley. "The processing integration of Gilmour remains an uncertainty, but ultimately we find it a decent mining option that could add to GOR's regional value and flexibility," he says in a note. RBC has a sector perform call and A$2.30 target on Gold Road. The stock is up 1.5% at A$2.425. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0034 GMT - Nick Scali's bull at Citi isn't too concerned by the challenging U.K. market hinted at by a rival's trading update. London-listed DFS expects consumer caution to skew its annual profit toward its fiscal second half, but Citi Analyst Sam Teeger reckons that Australia's Nick Scali's near-term U.K. performance is more likely to be driven by store refurbishments and its scale. Teeger tells clients in a note that his main concern for Nick Scali centers on the potential impact of elevated interest rates on housing markets. Citi has a buy rating and A$15.31 target price on the stock, which is down 0.5% at A$15.05. ([email protected])

0021 GMT - Miner South32's quarterly production result should be a positive tailwind, albeit tempered by some higher cost guidance, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. "S32 delivered a reasonably strong December quarter production report with aluminum/alumina and Cannington leading the way and beat versus Citi expectations," McTaggart says in a note. He highlights South32's steady FY25 production guidance and notes an increase in working capital. South32 is up 1.2% at A$3.52. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2255 GMT - The potential for one of Pinnacle Investment's two new affiliates to have a transformational impact isn't reflected in the Australian investment manager's share price, according to its bull at Wilsons. Analyst Cameron Halkett sees an opportunity for Pinnacle to leverage Pacific Asset Management's technology to challenge Australia's asset consultancies in what he tells clients is the fast-growing managed-accounts market. He writes in a note that he anticipates future benefits as Pacific's operations mature. Wilsons lifts its target price by 29% to A$26.50 and keeps an overweight rating on the stock, which is at A$23.69 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2228 GMT - Jefferies sees steeper share-price gains for both wagering company Tabcorp after calling a bottom in the racing market. In a note, analyst Kai Erman says racing revenue likely reached a floor in 4Q of 2024. "This is an important catalyst for Tabcorp, and one of the main overhangs on earnings over the past 12-18 months," Jefferies says. The bank is also positive on PointsBet, partly because of its appeal as a takeover target. Jefferies expects PointsBet to report Ebitda of A$18 million in FY 2025, beating A$11 million-A$16 million guidance. Its price target on Tabcorp rises 26% to A$0.73/share, while its target for PointsBet lifts 29% to A$1.10/share. Tabcorp and PointsBet ended last week at A$0.64 and A$0.93, respectively. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2211 GMT - Ampol's Lytton refiner margin in 1H could be better than the market expects, says Morgan Stanley. Ampol has reported a 1Q LRM of US$1.48/bbl, driven by maintenance at its Lytton refinery and regional refining weakness. MS expects the LRM recovered to US$4.12/bbl across 1H as a whole, while acknowledging that consensus expectations are for US$3.94/bbl. "While we anticipate refining margins to moderate to more than US$10/bbl in 2025 with upside volatility, fuel and convenience could face ongoing headwinds," MS says ahead of a likely update from Ampol. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2206 GMT - The rise in China's birth rate should help improve sentiment toward The a2 Milk Company's major infant-formula market, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They warn that tangible impacts on industry volumes are expected to lag the recovery in birth rates, but nonetheless call it out as a likely positive for the Australia-listed producer. They tell clients in a note that China's latest births data implies a 5.8% on-year rise in the number of new babies in 2024. MS has an equal-weight rating and A$5.90 target price on the stock, which is at A$5.81 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2140 GMT - The issue that drove Lynas Rare Earths's 2Q production miss looks to be a one-off to Ord Minnett. Lynas had intended to source all of its rare-earths output in December from mixed rare earth carbonate, or MREC, produced at its new Kalgoorlie plant in Australia. However, that plan was roiled by impurities in the MREC that required more treatment. Lynas didn't get chemicals to rectify the issue until Dec. 25. "We are surprised that sampling and prior trials had not revealed the impurities, but do not expect the problem to reoccur following process changes," analyst Matthew Hope says. Ord Minnett has a buy call on Lynas and A$7.80/share price target. Lynas ended last week at A$7.03.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2114 GMT - Corporate Travel Management's share price has jumped 13% in a week, prompting Jefferies to downgrade the stock to hold, from buy. "Whilst we are feeling more comfort around FY 2025-2026 earnings, we still see Business Travel for the foreseeable future as being captive to macro and the learnings out of Covid," analyst John Campbell says. Both of those suggest relatively low growth in total transaction value, Jefferies says. "Corporate Travel may have upside from Project Work in FY 2026 but investors typically view this earnings stream as low multiple," it adds. Corporate Travel ended last week at A$14.29. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires