Forum Topics HUB strong underlying flows continue
Solvetheriddle
Added 12 months ago

HUB Strong flows

HUB continues to generate flows above my expectations and is likely to surpass its target platform FUA of $115-123B for FY26

Q324 net flows $3.5 includes $0.8B EQT so $2.7 underlying

Q424 Net flows $5B includes $3.8B EQT so $3.2B underlying

Q125 Net flows $4b all underlying

Q225 Net flows $5.5B $4b underlying and $1.5b EQT

EQT has $0.9B to complete this half.

MTM has been $3.1b plus $1.8B= $4.9B so far in FY25. But who knows what is to come, I assume 6% ongoing pa.

Platform FUM is now $98.9B

Plus EQT to come, add last year’s net flows plus 30% growth, which is $5.9B plus 30%, which gives $7.7B.

This means FUM finishes around $107B for 2025 and at a $4b net flow rate for the next year per quarter gives $123B. then +/- Market flows. So the target looks beatable.

Of course could be wrong, but just to remind everyone HUB gains the advisor group, then has to win over the individual advisers who then migrate their clients over time, so there is a ready backlog of activity.

HUB are bettering my numbers from underlying flows, the most critical part.

Will wait until the results to change my valuation. currently $55

as an aside the PARS number was also better and saw some + momentum, long time coming.

Disc Top 10 holding, last buying at $23.50 so happy to average up if oppty arises on this one.


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occy
Added 12 months ago

I ummed and ahhed several years back about selling Netwealth for Hub24, or just selling half my stake and and doing so. I had a strong aversion to be being too overexposed in one area in my portfolio instead of doubling my allocation in one sector. As time goes on I continue to be smacked in the face that concentration really is the way to supercharge returns (or potentially losses of course). It's something that I continue to wrestle with, backing myself and accepting the higher risk or being content with less risk but steadier returns.

Either way both companies are fantastic, disciplined well run company's that continue to gobble up market share.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 12 months ago

@occy i have come at it the other way, i consider NWL a better book of business and a more conservative, family-run biz than HUB. i do usually prefer more conservative businesses but NWL has traded at a steep premium. HUB is more aggressive and at their investor day, you got a sense of their grand plan in advisor land. if it pays off it will be worthwhile but could lead to more volatility and drawdowns. however, any idea to switch HUB to NWL will now take a huge tax hit, so just have to ride it out. hold both? maybe but struggle with the idea, i already own enough stocks

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edgescape
Added 12 months ago

@Solvetheriddle

You should put this under the HUB24 link

Otherwise the post will just get lost again

Nevertheless a welcome pop today after a week long downtrend. Didn't have enough to load up last week unfortunately.

Proves this is still a high quality business for this sector compared to the little challengers out there.

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edgescape
Added 12 months ago

In addition to make a point that @Solvetheriddle post on HUB24 will get lost, if you enter HUB in the search box, the page asks to enter more than 3 letters instead of returning search results

@Strawman any chance you can fix that search restriction and put this thread in the appropriate place.

Btw I am not trying to pick on anyone but some organisation writing posts can go a long way for the rest of us


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Strawman
Added 12 months ago

I'll see what we can do @edgescape

Needing more than 3 characters to search seems overly restrictive.

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