0256 GMT - BHP should consider swapping out its net debt target for one on leverage ratio as the mining giant enters a new era of growth, says Goldman Sachs analyst Paul Young. In a note, Young says BHP's net debt ceiling "appears conservative, as the company is growing Ebitda." BHP said Tuesday that it expects net debt to be around the top end of its US$5 billion-US$15 billion target range at the end of FY 2025. "In our view, setting balance sheet targets on a leverage ratio rather than net debt basis could be more appropriate as BHP enters a period of organic (and possibly inorganic) growth," says Young. GS has a buy rating on BHP. Its target drops by 1.5% to A$46.80. BHP is down 1.7% at A$39.94. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0238 GMT - Net debt of around US$12 billion will make it hard for miner BHP to give shareholders more than its 50% minimum payout this fiscal year, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They cut their FY 2025 dividend estimate by 13% to US$0.91/share. In a quarterly update, BHP estimated its net debt at Dec. 31 was US$11.5 billion-US$12.5 billion. It earlier reported net debt of US$9.12 billion at June 30. The analysts reckon BHP, which bid for Anglo American last year, will "remain patient" on M&A. They prefer the Australia-based miner over Anglo-Australian rival Rio Tinto on a 12-month horizon "but acknowledge risk to this view into the 1HFY25 result." Macquarie reiterates an outperform rating and target of A$42.00/share. BHP is down 1.5% at A$40.00. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0140 GMT - Recent U.S. respiratory data suggest Fisher & Paykel Healthcare can hit the top end of its revenue guidance range, says Forsyth Barr. That conclusion follows analysis of U.S. hospitalization trends in prior flu seasons, and what is likely to happen in the remaining months of FY 2025. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's guidance is for NZ$1.9 billion-NZ$2.0 billion in FY 2025. Forsyth Barr expects that bar to be cleared, forecasting NZ$2.014 billion of revenue. "While the U.S. flu data could modestly exceed expectations, Covid data is lagging behind last year, which acts as an offset relative to Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's guidance," analyst Matt Montgomerie says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0040 GMT - Hub24 shares still have room to run even after the Australian wealth platform operator's recent rally, according to its bulls at Wilsons. The broker's analysts stay overweight on the stock, which surged 11% in a single session this week after it announced strong December-quarter net inflows. They raise their medium-term net flows forecasts on Hub24's strong run-rate, and flag potential for further upside if the company can maintain its current momentum. Wilsons lifts its target price by 9.0% to A$80.00. Shares are up 3.9% at A$75.23. ([email protected])

0034 GMT - The financial discipline demonstrated by Wesfarmers in shutting down its Catch e-commerce business isn't enough to scare off its bears at UBS. Analysts James Meares and Shaun Cousins see positives from the move, such as the redeployment of digital capabilities to the Australian conglomerate's other retail divisions, but keep a sell rating on the stock on valuation. With Amazon a clear winner in the e-commerce category, Wesfarmers is making a more sound decision in relying on omni-channel operations with store networks and brand-aligned marketplaces, they say, and cite hardware chain Bunnings as an example. UBS raises its target price by 4.5% to A$69.00. Shares are up 1.5% at A$73.95. ([email protected])

0022 GMT - Australian wealth platform operator Hub24's strong operating momentum isn't enough to turn UBS analysts bullish on the stock. They acknowledge that the ASX-listed company's second-quarter net inflows were its largest ever and ahead of expectations, but point out in a note to clients that the stock is trading at a 20% premium to its five-year average price-to-earnings. This limited value appeal keeps them neutral on the stock. That said, their overall outlook for Hub24's fiscal second half remains strong. UBS lifts its target price 7.9% to A$75.50. Shares are up 4.2% at A$75.475. ([email protected])

0020 GMT - Iluka's 4Q result disappoints Citi analyst Paul McTaggart, with the miner's quarterly mineral sands revenue 17% below the bank's forecast. Aggregate sales volumes of zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile are 12% below Citi's estimates, and Iluka's realized zircon price is 11% below its expectations, McTaggart says. "On a positive note, unit cash costs of production of A$1,290/ton were below guidance," he says. Citi has a high-risk buy rating on Iluka, with a A$6.10 target. The stock is down 8.7% at A$4.86. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0015 GMT - Corporate Travel Management still warrants the buy rating Citi slapped on the stock back in August despite a stalling domestic Australian market, analyst Samuel Seow reckons. He tells clients in a note that he stands by his bullish view, pointing to data suggesting that international corporate travel is continuing to grow strongly. He believes this should offer better economics and margin mix to the ASX-listed company. Seow flags total U.S. passenger growth and early positive signs for volumes from airline earnings reports. Citi has an unchanged A$13.90 target price on the stock, which is up 2.05% at A$14.94. ([email protected])

2353 GMT - Resilience in Australian home-electrical retailing could help Harvey Norman could beat first-half earnings expectations, Citi analysts reckon. Opening a 90-day upside catalyst watch on the stock, they write in a note that while they understand that clothing and footwear retailers had to sacrifice margin to generate sales, they have not heard of similar concerns in other categories. They anticipate A$192.1 million in first-half Ebit from Australian franchisees, which is about 4% higher than the average analyst forecast. They support this view with an increased fiscal 2025 forecast for household spending capacity. Citi trims its target price on the stock by 5.5% but maintains a buy rating. Shares are up 1.5% at A$4.83. ([email protected])

2349 GMT - Gold miner Evolution offered up "a fairly neutral result" for 2Q, with production in line with market estimates, RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley says in a note. "All sites were broadly around expectations with no major issues called out by EVN," Barkley says. Production FY-to-date is tracking to the high end of annual guidance, however Evolution forecast softer output in 3Q because of some scheduled work at the Cowal and Ernest Henry mines. RBC has an underperform rating and A$4.30 target on Evolution. The stock is up 0.5% at A$5.69. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2336 GMT - JB Hi-Fi's bulls at Citi open an upside catalyst watch on the stock despite acknowledging that the entertainment retailer's valuation is already somewhat stretched. Citi analysts highlight JB Hi-Fi as the most notable example of stretched valuations among Australian retail stocks, but see potential for continued outperformance on earnings upgrades. They tell clients in a note that household spending capacity is set to rise in fiscal 2025 by more than they had previously forecast. Retail sales growth has already picked up and interest-rate cuts should encourage further spending, they add. Citi raises its target price by 29% to A$110.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are up 3.8% at A$101.755. ([email protected])

2329 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Bell Potter reckons that the logistics software provider is likely to reaffirm its downgraded annual guidance when it announces its first-half result, setting the stage for a stronger fiscal 2026. Analyst Chris Savage writes in a note that he expects a wider-than-usual revenue and earnings split between the two halves of the current fiscal year. Annualizing what he expects to be a strong June half through fiscal 2026, and accounting for increased penetration of new products, Savage anticipates a very strong growth in fiscal 2026. He sees Ebitda growth of 38% for the period. Bell Potter trims its target price 2.7% to A$136.25 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 0.9% at A$120.00. ([email protected])

2253 GMT - Australian wealth platform operator Hub24's 2Q was strong, but Jefferies thinks the stock's lofty valuation means it cannot afford to stumble. Hub24 reported a record A$5.5 billion in quarterly net inflows, around 10% higher than consensus hopes. "With Hub24 trading (at) 62x FY 2025 price-to-earnings and consensus ahead of Hub24's FY 2026 funds under administration target, we believe there is no room for an earnings miss," says analyst Simon Fitzgerald. Jefferies raises its EPS forecasts by 3-6% in FY 2025-2026, but retains an underperform call on the stock. Hub24 ended Tuesday at A$72.43. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2200 GMT - Jefferies welcomes Wesfarmers's decision to close its loss-making Catch business. It cites intense competition in marketplaces for customers and search traffic, while highlighting that global retailers have a large scale advantage. Analyst Michael Simotas said it's disappointing that the 2019 acquisition of Catch destroyed capital over time and that the business racked up losses. "But there have been ecommerce benefits to retail divisions and Catch's fulfillment centers will benefit Kmart's margin and customer experience," Jefferies says. One positive from Tuesday's announcement is the lack of commentary from Wesfarmers about its other divisions. That suggests little risk to consensus forecasts, says Jefferies, which rates Wesfarmers a hold. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2156 GMT - Deep Yellow still needs a A$430 million financing package to advance its Tumas uranium project, estimates Jefferies. "Current total pre-production capital is US$360 million, with an additional US$51 million in pre-production capitalized operating costs and A$30 million in working capital requirements," analyst Mitch Ryan says. "We see upside risk to these numbers." Deep Yellow is seeking to lock in more offtake deals. That would make revenues more stable, Jefferies says. But it also removes the potential benefit from any rise in uranium prices. Deep Yellow is expected to make a final decision on Tumas in March. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2150 GMT - Development of the Dorado oil project in Western Australia isn't likely to begin before 2026, assumes Euroz Hartleys. Carnarvon Energy, which owns 10% of Dorado, yesterday said a final investment decision on the project wouldn't happen in 2025 as planned and didn't offer a new timetable. Euroz Hartleys cuts its price target on Carnarvon by 53% to A$0.18/share, but retains a buy call on the stock. "Carnarvon has A$180 million of cash, no debt and a US$90 million Dorado development free carry," analyst Declan Bonnick says. "The cash alone is worth A$0.10/share, potentially a lower trading limit to the Carnarvon share price." Carnarvon ended Tuesday at A$0.12. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0521 GMT - The potential benefits to Kogan.com from Wesfarmers' decision to close Catch may be small, Citi analyst James Wang warns. He views the retail and industrial conglomerate's move as a net positive for online retailer Kogan but thinks that only a portion of Catch customers will migrate to rival Kogan. Wang writes in a note that web traffic and app usage data suggest that the customers that Catch has lost over recent months have switched to marketplaces other than Kogan. He adds that the closure of Catch points to stiff competition from Amazon, eBay and Temu. Citi has a sell rating and a A$4.50 target price on the stock, which closed 5.5% higher at A$5.92. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires