0303 GMT - Australian data-center operator NextDC shouldn't experience any material impact from chip restrictions announced by the U.S. government, Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed says. He concedes that there could be implications for NextDC's planned Asian expansion but points out in a note to clients that Asia accounts for just 8% of his fiscal 2030 Ebitda forecast. More positively, Ahmed sees a scenario in which hyperscale customers prioritize near-term investment into mostly unrestricted countries such as Australia. Citi has a buy rating and a A$20.00 target price on NextDC shares, which are down 0.6% at A$16.00. ([email protected])

0243 GMT - Breathing-tech provider ResMed doesn't get enough credit from the market for its operational cost control, UBS analyst Laura Sutcliffe reckons. Dual-listed ResMed is scheduled to report its December-quarter financials at the end of January and Sutcliffe thinks its core operating profit will come in about 2% ahead of the average analyst forecast. This is even though her revenue forecast is in line with average expectations. As for U.S. device sales, she tells clients in a note that app downloads suggest that its market share remains steady above 80%. UBS raises its target price on ResMed's U.S.-listed securities by 2% to US$255.00. The stock closed 0.2% lower at US$247.33. ([email protected])

0106 GMT - Beach Energy didn't lose Goldman Sachs as a bear, despite delivering a slightly stronger 2Q result than the bank had expected. Beach sold 6.8 million BOE in 2Q, approximately 4% above GS's forecast and 12% higher than consensus expectations. Goldman Sachs retains a sell rating on Beach, partly due to delays in the company's Waitsia Stage 2 development in Australia. Beach expects first gas sales in 4Q of FY 2025. "We remain cautious of commissioning progress and eventual plant performance given the constant quality control setbacks the project has faced, though assume the project starts up in line with company expectations mid-2025," analyst Henry Meyer says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0101 GMT - Fortescue's 2Q iron-ore output is a tad above market expectations, but its realized prices are a miss, says Jefferies analyst Mitch Ryan. "No material operational updates were provided and guidance remains unchanged," he says in a note. As such, Fortescue's stock should continue to take its near-term cues from iron-ore prices, which are likely to soften further, he reckons. Jefferies has a hold rating and an A$20.00 target on Fortescue. The stock is down 1.9% at A$18.66. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0044 GMT - Australian mall owners' price-to-earnings multiples could expand this year, reckons JPMorgan. The bank is optimistic about the local consumer early in 2025, forecasting private consumption growth of 5%. "This positive outlook for retail sales is assisted by the prospect of rate cuts, strong discretionary income growth, savings rates which have rebounded and population growth which is tracking at 2%," analyst Richard Jones says. Not much new retail space is likely in 2025 and JPMorgan believes the penetration of e-commerce has stabilized. That's all good news because price-to-earnings multiples of retail REITs are positively correlated with sales, the bank says. JPMorgan has overweight calls on Vicinity Centres, GPT, Scentre, and Charter Hall Retail REIT, among others. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0039 GMT - GrainCorp's bull at Macquarie sees potential for the stock to re-rate if the company confirms a positive earnings trajectory at its annual general meeting. An analyst note from the investment bank outlines an expectation that the strong start to the current winter harvest will help GrainCorp increase its export program. Export volumes are key for delivery on earnings and the Macquarie note points to industry data suggesting that farmer selling has accelerated in January. Macquarie trims EPS forecasts by less than 1% but keeps an outperform rating on the stock. The target price remains A$9.85. Shares are down 0.1% at A$7.305. ([email protected])

0038 GMT - Consensus expectations for Woodside Energy's dividend look light to UBS. That's despite likely cuts to forecasts following Woodside's 4Q production report yesterday. Analyst Tom Allen says investors appear to underestimate the financial accounting benefit from Woodside's recent asset-swap deal with Chevron. That deal involves Woodside handing Chevron its 13% interest in the Wheatstone liquefied natural gas project in Australia. In return, Woodside is acquiring Chevron's nearly 17% interests in the North West Shelf LNG and oil projects. The deal benefits Woodside's depreciation and amortization assessments, UBS says, and "supports a dividend beat (versus consensus) at the FY 2024 result." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0029 GMT - UBS thinks the market hasn't appreciated the benefit that Beach Energy will get from realizing higher prices from uncontracted natural-gas volumes in eastern Australia. When recognized, it could drive consensus expectations for Beach's cash flow materially higher, analyst Tom Allen says. UBS projects Beach achieving a free cash flow yield of 20% in FY 2026, rising to 30% in FY 2027. "A key driver of which is our view that Beach's realized gas prices can exceed consensus expectations from FY 2026 by 15-20%," UBS says. It retains a buy call on Beach. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0024 GMT - Netwealth shakes loose its bear at Citi on a stronger-than-expected second quarter. Analyst Siraj Ahmed raises his recommendation on the Australian wealth manager to neutral from sell, telling clients in a note that net custodial inflows of A$4.4 billion were 19% ahead of his forecast. On an underlying basis, flows were 5% stronger than he had anticipated. Ahmed raises his net flow forecasts, helping drive Ebitda forecast increases of 2% for fiscal 2025, 5% for fiscal 2026, and 6% for fiscal 2027. Citi lifts its target price by 6.2% to A$30.70. Shares are up 4.0% at A$30.58. ([email protected])

0018 GMT - Santos's capex guidance for 2025 comes as a bit of a shock to Citi. The Australian energy company has signaled sustaining capex of US$1.2 billion-US$1.3 billion this year, with similar guidance for spending on major projects. Citi had expected combined capex of US$1.73 billion, given Santos completed the commissioning of wells at the Angore gas deposit in Papua New Guinea in 2024. Santos's guidance "suggests the capital intensity of the base business is higher than we had expected," analyst James Byrne says. Citi retains a buy call on Santos, which is up 0.6% at A$7.17. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0005 GMT - Lovisa's increased store rollouts keep the Australian jewelry retailer firmly on course to meet Macquarie analysts' annual target. The analysts tell clients in a note that they think the chain will comprise 960 stores this month, up by 60 since the start of Lovisa's current fiscal year on July 1. They still anticipate 101 new stores across fiscal 2025, but now think that Lovisa is less reliant on second-half openings than they had previously thought. They reckon that Lovisa needs to open 56 stores in the June half, down from a prior forecast of 75. There is still plenty of scope for further expansion, they add. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$34.10 target price on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$28.22. ([email protected])

2300 GMT - Netwealth shares are likely to get a boost from the Australian wealth manager's better-than-expected second quarter, E&P analyst Olivier Coulon reckons. He tells clients in a note that Netwealth's net inflows of A$4.47 billion were well ahead of his A$3.87 forecast, and 2.2% ahead on an underlying basis. He thinks that the company's decision to increase the cash fee on its pooled cash account by 15 basis points is a material positive, so long as it doesn't affect inflows or drive more efficient cash management on the platform. It would lift revenue on the current funds composition by A$8.4 million, Coulon adds. E&P has a neutral rating and A$25.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$29.41 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2237 GMT - Bubs Australia's better-than-expected second-quarter margins aren't enough to turn Citi bullish on the infant-formula maker, but do offer analyst James Wang some encouragement about its outlook. Wang writes in a note to clients that Bubs' 48% gross profit margin was well ahead of his forecast of 40%. The company's expectation of A$2.9 million in first-half Ebitda compares with his previous forecast of a loss. With sales momentum improving, Wang brings forward the timing of what he says will be an annual earnings recovery to the current fiscal year. Citi lifts its target price 7.7% to A$0.14 and stays neutral on the stock, which is at A$0.12 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires