0400 GMT - Australian wealth manager AMP offers a compelling investment case after its improved flows surprised investors over the past few quarters, according to its bulls at Morgan Stanley. Analysts Andrei Stadnik and Richard E. Wiles say they prefer the stock over Insignia and Challenger, pointing out that AMP is trading at just 12 times underlying price-to-earnings. They write in a note that AMP is delivering more consistently these days on costs, revenue margins and flows, while reducing one-off items. They lift their underlying net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 2% and 4%, respectively, to reflect stronger funds under management and administration. The target price rises 12% to A$1.90 and MS stays overweight on the stock, which is up 4.7% at A$1.7775. ([email protected])

0339 GMT - Australian engineering services provider Civmec keeps its bull at Bell Potter despite what analyst Daniel Laing says is a challenging outlook for iron-ore prices. Laing points out that the federal government's annual review of major resources and energy projects indicates that investment in major iron-ore projects remains relatively stable. He reminds clients in a note that Civmec said in November that tendering activities were at historically high levels across all its business segments. Laing adds that there are 31 publicly announced iron-ore projects with an estimated value of A$39.7 billion, with further upside likely. Bell Potter trims its target price 2.9% to A$1.70 and maintains a buy rating on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$1.335. ([email protected])

0328 GMT - Netwealth loses its bull at Canaccord Genuity, reflecting what analyst Paul Buys tells clients was a strong recent run of upgraded analyst forecasts. Buys lowers his recommendation to hold from buy, which he says is based on the Australian wealth manager's shorter-term valuation against rather than any specific concerns. He lifts his net profit forecasts for the next three fiscal years by 5%-8% and tells clients in a note that feedback from advisers suggests that Netwealth is continuing to gain market share. He can't see any obvious near-term catalyst to disrupt Netwealth's recent positive momentum. Canaccord Genuity lifts its target price 12%. Shares are up 1.4% at A$30.32. ([email protected])

0318 GMT - Michael Hill International will find it hard to offset its second-quarter decline in jewelry sales with cost cuts, Citi analyst James Wang warns. He acknowledges that the Australia-listed company has identified A$5 million in cost savings, but tells clients in a note that the scale of the sales decline makes things difficult. After what Wang says was a promising first fiscal quarter, sales across the first half fell 1% on a year earlier and missed the average analyst forecast by 4%. Michael Hill typically breaks even or makes a small loss in its fiscal second half, Wang adds. Citi has a neutral rating and A$0.57 target price on the stock, which is down 3.7% at A$0.52. ([email protected])

0255 GMT - Insignia's chances of wrapping up a takeover by one of its private-equity suitors look to be increasing, according to UBS analyst Shreyas Patel. He writes in a note that the prospect of a deal for the Australian wealth manager are growing with the presence of multiple bidders and evidence of gradual flow improvements. The current offers of A$4.60 a share imply only a modest control premium to the stock's five-year average price-to-earnings, he adds. UBS lifts its target price by 14% to A$4.60 and stays neutral on the stock, which is up 0.9% at A$4.56. ([email protected])

0108 GMT - Rio Tinto's initial estimate of 3-4 weeks of downtime for the EII car dumper suggests that 3-4 million metric tons of iron ore shipments could be impacted in 1Q 2025, RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker says in a note. "The Pilbara is mine-constrained, not port-constrained, so we think CY25 shipments are likely to be made up in 2H," Peker says. "However, from a product quality and equity volumes perspective, the impact from downtime at EII is more meaningful than the headline number would suggest in 1Q," as the EII port is solely used to ship Rio's Pilbara Blend lump and fines, not its lower-grade products. Peker reckons a risk premium may now get priced into iron-ore markets, particularly for mid-grade products such as Pilbara Blend.([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0106 GMT - Kogan.com's bull at RBC Capital Markets is pleased with the online retailer's top line in a trading update that sparked a sharp sell-off of its Australia-listed shares. RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen tells clients in a note that fiscal first-half gross sales, revenue and gross profit were stronger than he had anticipated. Ebitda missed his forecast by 7.3% but he reckons that this is only down to increased marketing spend and now-resolved tech issues. He is looking at the update positively. RBC has an outperform rating and A$6.00 target price on the stock, which is down 13% at A$5.175. ([email protected])

0050 GMT - The impact on Treasury Wine Estates' sales and margin from weaker U.S. premium-brand volumes should be offset by the U.S. dollar's recent appreciation against its Australian counterpart, Goldman Sachs analysts say. While pointing out Nielsen data suggesting that Treasury's premium brands ceded U.S. market share over the 12 weeks to Dec. 28, they call clients' attention to the strength of the greenback. The Australian dollar's slip to about 62 U.S. cents from 66 in early November is positive for both sales and margin, they write in a note. GS cuts its target price by 14% to A$13.00 on a lower valuation of Treasury's Penfolds and U.S. luxury brands but keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are down 0.8% at A$10.385. ([email protected])

0023 GMT - Kogan.com's first-half trading update doesn't appear to offer anything that might scare off its bear at Citi. Analyst James Wang writes in a note that the online retailer's adjusted Ebitda for the December half was 7% lower than the average analyst forecast, and calls out the Black Friday and Christmas period as a particular disappointment. Wang points out that Ebitda fell despite a rise in revenue, which he speculates might be down to higher marketing costs or difficulties around the launch of its Mighty Ape marketplace offering. Citi has a last-published sell rating and A$4.50 target price on the stock, which is down 15% at A$5.09. ([email protected])

0015 GMT - Wesfarmers' exposure to new growth drivers turns Goldman Sachs analysts bullish on the Australian retail and industrial conglomerate. Raising their recommendation on the stock to buy from hold, GS analysts write in a note that the group's expansion into health and lithium will start to contribute positively to sales and earnings from fiscal 2026 or fiscal 2027. They see its more established Bunnings hardware and Kmart retail units delivering 8% on-year EBIT growth in fiscal 2026. GS raises its target price 13% to A$78.70. Shares are up 3.1% at A$74.55. ([email protected])

2324 GMT - Pantoro's 2Q report was a mixed bag for Bell Potter. Gold production of 19,438 oz fell short of the bank's 20,993 oz forecast, while all-in sustaining costs were a tad higher. Still, analyst David Coates said the lower-than-forecast mill head grades and low stockpile ore feed grades that drove the miss weren't unexpected, given Pantoro is ramping up operations at its Scotia underground mine. "Despite the lower production and the significant capital investment into mine development and exploration, Pantoro has continued a trend of adding cash to the balance sheet quarter-on-quarter which is positive," Bell Potter says. It retains a hold call on Pantoro's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2227 GMT - Ampol gets a new bull in Goldman Sachs despite a weaker-than-expected update yesterday. Ampol's unaudited Ebit and Ebitda for 2024 missed Goldman's forecasts by 10% and 4%, respectively, although the bank was cheered by consistent earnings from its Convenience Retail division. Goldman Sachs doesn't expect Ampol to pay a final dividend for 2024, partly because the Australian refiner and marketer's debt load is above targeted levels. "Despite the earnings miss we upgrade Ampol to buy," Goldman Sachs says, citing its attractive valuation. The bank expects Ampol's EPS to rebound 20% this year as the Lytton refinery in eastern Australia operates more smoothly and Ampol makes good on a A$50 million cost-cutting program. Ampol ended Thursday at A$29.69. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2223 GMT - Santos's output guidance for 2025 exceeds bull Goldman Sachs's forecasts. Santos expects to produce between 90 million and 97 million barrels of oil equivalent this year, supported by the Barossa natural-gas project which is targeted for startup in 3Q. Goldman Sachs had tipped 92 million BOE, so the guidance represents a 1.6% beat at the midpoint of the range. The bank says Barossa output can help to offset the impact of a forecast decline in crude-oil prices, supporting Ebtida of US$3.6 billion this year. Santos ended Thursday at A$7.13, up 12% since hitting a low in December. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2215 GMT - More record net inflows for Netwealth in 2Q have breathed fresh life into its share-price rally, but Jefferies remains cautious. Netwealth's stock is up more than 70% in a year, with the 2Q update alone triggering double-digit gains. Netwealth's quarterly net inflows totalled A$4.5 billion, while its funds under administration rose by A$6.2 billion. Still, analyst Simon Fitzgerald thinks Netwealth will require elevated inflows and new records in order to maintain its positive share-price momentum. "With the stock trading on a 68x FY 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, we view the balance of risk and reward tilted to the former," says Jefferies, reiterating its underperform call. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2158 GMT - Ampol could resume paying special dividends to shareholders in a year's time, Jefferies says. Ampol endured a tough 2024, dealing with soft crack spreads and outages at its refinery in Australia's Queensland state, but yesterday's 4Q update pointed to a recovery in its Lytton Refiner Margin. Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas says Ampol's other businesses continue to perform well, highlighting the strong performance of its Convenience Retail division despite fragile consumer confidence and sales of illicit tobacco. "Ampol is well positioned for 2025, with crack spreads improving and refinery turnaround and inspection delayed to 2026, which should enable special dividends to resume in February 2026," Jefferies says.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires