Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 29 Jan 2025 15:01:45
Jimmy
Added 2 months ago

0036 GMT - Accent Group's trading update indicates that the Australian foootwear retailer's heavy discounting has failed to sustain sales growth, E&P associate analyst Kade Madigan says. Madigan tells clients in a note that Accent's declining gross margin is consistent with external retail data suggesting that strong Black Friday trade was offset by weakness around Christmas. More positively, the fact that earnings were in-line with his expectations implies that Accent's first-half cost-of-doing-business was about 3% lower than he had forecast. He says this lower cost base should help offset the impact on analysts' forecasts of lower second-half sales and margin assumptions.(stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0026 GMT - Viva Energy's latest operational update was another disappointment to Jefferies. Viva signaled around A$750 million in annual Ebitda, some 9% below Jefferies' A$824 million forecast. Viva's earnings were hit by a refining outage, lower fuel margins in its Convenience and Mobility business, and illicit tobacco sales. "Pleasingly, Commercial & Industrial continues to deliver dependable growth, and this setback, while disappointing, doesn't change our positive thesis," analyst Michael Simotas says. "Viva has a best-in-class network, with opportunity to deliver material upside when converted to OTR." Viva bought gas station and convenience store owner OTR last year. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0023 GMT - Tuesday's share-price falls by data center operators NextDC and Infratil have created a buying opportunity in both stocks, says Jefferies. Investors turned skittish on news that China's DeepSeek had trained a sophisticated AI model at a fraction of the cost of its Silicon Valley rivals. However, analyst Roger Samuel thinks the impact could be a "net positive". When technology boosts the efficiency with which resources are used, prices fall and demand rises, he says. The world uses more resources as a result. "We think it is highly unlikely that Hyperscalers will reduce their capex spend on the back of efficiency gains," he says. "We think the case will more likely be that efficiency savings are re-invested to accelerate AI developments." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0015 GMT - Adore Beauty's bull at Citi is concerned by the Australian cosmetics retailer's sluggish online sales growth. Analyst James Wang writes in a note that sales momentum looks weaker once the contribution of Adore's recently acquired iKOU business is stripped out. Online sales since August appear to have declined by 8% on-year, he reckons. He adds that Adore's elevated cost-of-doing-business over its last fiscal half can be attributed to the iKOU acquisition, the change in CEO and store openings. Besides, he says, gross-profit margin widened enough to offset this. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$0.90 target price on the stock, which is flat at A$0.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0007 GMT - Whitehaven Coal sees an opportunity to review its capital allocation framework at the end of FY 2025, leading Jefferies to assess what that may involve. Whitehaven's dividend is currently anchored by 20%-50% of net profit from its New South Wales coal mines. Soon, though, Whitehaven will receive US$1.08 billion proceeds from selling a 30% stake in the Blackwater mine in Queensland to two Japanese steelmakers. Analyst Daniel Roden says cash flow from Whitehaven's new Queensland assets will initially be used for deferred payments to BHP Group and Japan's Mitsubishi, which sold them. He expects Whitehaven will then update its dividend policy, potentially adding in 20%-50% of net profit from the Queensland mines. Jefferies retains a buy call on Whitehaven. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2350 GMT - AGL Energy could raise its FY 2025 earnings guidance at its upcoming 1H result, says Macquarie, which upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral. AGL expects an underlying net profit of A$530 million-A$730 million in FY 2025, but Macquarie thinks there's scope to lift that to the upper half of the range because its power plants have operated well and gas volumes have rebounded. "Electricity prices are staying higher for longer in New South Wales, reducing the earnings pressure," Macquarie says. AGL's share price is up 1.8% today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2349 GMT - Australian footwear retailer Accent Group loses its bull at Citi on weakening sales growth and margins. Analyst Sam Teeger lowers his recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy, telling clients in a note that the rate of Accent's gross margin decline has accelerated over recent months. This is before incorporating any headwinds from the weaker Australian dollar, he adds. Accent's first-half EBIT was about A$1.8 million stronger than the average analyst forecast, but only due to an unexpected A$3.3 million one-off benefit from the reversal of a historical impairment. Citi lowers its target price by 1.6% to A$2.43. Shares are down 1.3% at A$2.35. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2346 GMT - Whitehaven Coal's output in its latest quarter is a robust beat to Citi's forecasts. Whitehaven produced 9.7 million tons of unprocessed or so-called run-of-mine coal in 2Q, in line with 1Q. Citi, which has a buy call on Whitehaven, had anticipated 2Q output of some 8.4 million tons. Whitehaven's shares rise 3.1%, having been on a broad downtrend since mid-October. CEO Paul Flynn says the miner is on track to "deliver firmly in the upper half of FY 2025 production and sales guidance" and at the low end of its target range for costs. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2336 GMT - Weakening retail demand appears to be the main driver of Autosports Group's guidance downgrade, Citi analyst Jack Dunn says. He concedes that the vehicle retailer probably experienced a negative impact from industrial action that caused delays at ports, but reckons that excess inventory and weak demand is probably the underlying cause. Dunn writes in a note that the June half is likely to be challenging for Autosports, with the vehicle market yet to bottom and interest-rate cuts yet to eventuate. Citi has a last-published neutral rating and A$2.10 target price on the stock, which is down 5.7% at A$1.65. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2326 GMT - The threat of U.S. tariffs could see protective-garment manufacturer Ansell face the re-emergence of uneven demand due to customer destocking, UBS analysts write in a note. They tell clients that they have become more optimistic about full-year sales growth at Ansell's healthcare unit, but that there are some risks ahead. They highlight the possibility that customers have built up inventory ahead of potential tariffs, which would eventually hit demand as they then use up the stock. Ansell needs to deliver on first-half analyst earnings expectations to continue recent support for its stock, the UBS note adds. UBS lifts its target price 12.5% to A$36.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$30.63. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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