Forum Topics FBR FBR JV by February

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

It was starting to look like they would miss all their major Q4 milestone/promises - no Big Media Day, and not finishing their demonstration program. And then they made a 23rd Dec announcement that appears to suggest that all may be well in Florida.

True to form, it's a written rorschach test. After staring at the butterfly/monster I've decided it's genuine optimism awkwardly tempered by lawyers, rather than sleight of hand.

What does it say:

  • CRH Ventures have agreed that the demonstration program is complete, despite the still pending 10th home
  • I suspect this was to stop the slowly spreading dread that something was fundamentally off, rather than just late again
  • The 9th structure had been put up in a day, a major point in the machine's favour
  • At least 2 further 'demo' homes are in the works for the sake of major US builder Pulte and a newly engaged Florida builder, Neale Communities, a smaller company and perhaps better-sized to be an early adopter.
  • The 45 day JV option window starts on Jan 2nd
  • CRH Ventures and FBR have agreed to $500k stop-gap funding to allow for one or 2 new trucks to be delivered. Details not disclosed but perhaps under the same conditions as the JV funds (a loan to the JV from CRH).

There are some tea-leaves here. Why would CRH agree to a stop-gap funding measure unless they were leaning towards committing to the JV? Are there any January events or conditions that would sway their decision?

What it doesn't say:

No apologies or explanation about the missing-in-action Big Media Day or the 10th home timeline.

Anyway, the market maniacs liked it and the downrampers have raised the white flag.

Perhaps they are trying to coordinate a media day for January and hopefully another real home demonstration while trying not to get over-shadowed by the Donald. Imagine if he got involved though!

January is now officially the end of the beginning

If the JV is signed by February, then FBR no longer have to worry about funding, and can focus on the complicated logistics of getting machine supplies coordinated and enticing builders to give the Hadrian-X some game time. CRH Ventures only have to fund the machines as they come on line, and that would only be once the active ones are earning cash.

My bet: 70/30 the JV gets signed in February



lastever
Added a month ago

15 calendar days to go in the JV window. Simultaneously FBR today restated that 'FBR and CRH' intend 'in the next month' to complete:

  • at least one home for major US builder PulteGroup
  • one for Neal Communities, prominent in SW Florida

Interesting trivia: There is some kind of family connection between Pulte and POTUS. Potentially a Federal Housing Finance Agency position...

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lastever
Added a month ago

Also want to post the conditions of the 'Potential JV' for easy reference.

Be glad to hear what odds anyone else would apply to the JV being signed based on this wording and the detail I highlighted:

"Upon commencement of the potential joint venture, a binding conditional purchase order for 20 Hadrian X® construction robots will be submitted to FBR at a price of US$2.0 million per unit.

Simultaneously, a US$40 million loan facility will be established by CRH Ventures that the joint venture entity can draw down on in tranches to pay for the manufacture and delivery of the Hadrian X® construction robots. FBR will also replace the unit used to conduct the Demonstration Program in the United States with a U.S.-spec unit at no additional cost to the joint venture.

Further to the announcement released to the ASX on 18 January 2024, FBR and CRH Ventures have considered the early stage cash requirements of the joint venture and agreed to make an initial combined working capital investment totalling US$0.5 million to cover loan facility repayments ahead of delivery of US-spec Hadrian X® units, with deposits for two Hadrian X® units totalling US$2.2 million immediately payable to FBR upon formation of the joint venture.

Another unit will be delivered as soon as possible after delivery of the initial two units, in addition to the replacement for the unit used to conduct the Demonstration Program. The remaining 17 units in the initial 20-unit purchase order will be delivered in tranches of 3 units after the joint venture meets the agreed performance milestones for each tranche.

Further conditional purchase orders of 39 Hadrian X® units and 40 Hadrian X® units will be submitted to FBR by the joint venture once defined metrics relating to gross margin and fleet utilisation are achieved (for more detail see ASX announcement dated 18 January 2024).

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lastever
Added 4 weeks ago

FBR have released a video reflecting on their demo program in Florida. It's a step up in production quality, has a relaxed vibe and contains some interesting hints, making reference to 'our partners'.

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Monday is the logical day for an announcement confirming the JV with CRH Ventures, since that's the end of the exclusivity option window.

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lastever
Added 4 weeks ago

Some kind of on-site media day happened yesterday after all, with the VP of sales of the Pulte Group as spokesman in front of a build in one of their estates. Pulte is the 3rd biggest homebuilder in the USA so that is a very helpful endorsement. He emphasised 'we haven't planned that much yet...we're testing it out today', but a division manager of Procurement also had some screen time on site.

I have only seen a Florida morning news report, but I guess there's a chance it gets broader play on the weekend. The real audience is the builders anyway, and they will notice.

Anyway, kudos to FBR for delivering on that promise.....a few months late...put with better optics than originally planned....

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wonkeydonkey
Added 4 weeks ago

impressive research I was struggling to find anything

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pdevries
Added 4 weeks ago

Thanks lastever for all the above information as a holder of the shares for a while now it has certainly been a rollercoaster ride. Look forward to something being announced soon and if it is Monday even better. If they do get the JV gives me a lot more reason to believe they will go even further over the years as they seem to have a lot of patents for robotics, which I have a sense will be the next AI.

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wonkeydonkey
Added 4 weeks ago

As previously announced by FBR on 18 January 2024, CRH Ventures was granted an option to enter into an exclusive joint venture. The period for exercise of the Option ended at 5pm EST GMT-5 16 February 2025.

FBR did not receive formal notice of exercise of the Option from CRH Ventures before the end of the option period. Accordingly, the Option has expired and, as a result, FBR is no longer subject to the exclusivity arrangements with CRH Ventures.

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wonkeydonkey
Added 4 weeks ago

I did have a lot of optimism that this option was to be picked up however perhaps should of read more into final comment on the video by VIP of sales of Pulte group who said "we haven't planned that much yet, we are just testing it out", not a strong endorsement

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lastever
Added 4 weeks ago

Yup. Ouch. I guess CRH Ventures were never under much pressure to sign by an arbitrary deadline, so why would they?

Probably should have understood that earlier. The signs were there and I misread them through confirmation bias:

  • the talk of plan Bs at the AGM
  • the general vibe of the execs (which is something I am committing to memory, having chatted with one of them)
  • the pissweak insider buying
  • the timing and vibe of the 'Florida retrospective' video
  • the hard-to-decipher comments from the Pulte exec last week.

They are desperate for cash now which weakens any negotiating positions.

I'm not smart enough to see how this plays out in the short term. Pulte presumably want to continue playing around with the tech. CRH Ventures are apparently taking a watch and see position. Either of those could swallow it whole if they wanted, and they or Brickworks could take a stake at a better price this week. Are any seasoned speculators watching this who care to speculate?


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