It was starting to look like they would miss all their major Q4 milestone/promises - no Big Media Day, and not finishing their demonstration program. And then they made a 23rd Dec announcement that appears to suggest that all may be well in Florida.
True to form, it's a written rorschach test. After staring at the butterfly/monster I've decided it's genuine optimism awkwardly tempered by lawyers, rather than sleight of hand.
What does it say:
- CRH Ventures have agreed that the demonstration program is complete, despite the still pending 10th home
- I suspect this was to stop the slowly spreading dread that something was fundamentally off, rather than just late again
- The 9th structure had been put up in a day, a major point in the machine's favour
- At least 2 further 'demo' homes are in the works for the sake of major US builder Pulte and a newly engaged Florida builder, Neale Communities, a smaller company and perhaps better-sized to be an early adopter.
- The 45 day JV option window starts on Jan 2nd
- CRH Ventures and FBR have agreed to $500k stop-gap funding to allow for one or 2 new trucks to be delivered. Details not disclosed but perhaps under the same conditions as the JV funds (a loan to the JV from CRH).
There are some tea-leaves here. Why would CRH agree to a stop-gap funding measure unless they were leaning towards committing to the JV? Are there any January events or conditions that would sway their decision?
What it doesn't say:
No apologies or explanation about the missing-in-action Big Media Day or the 10th home timeline.
Anyway, the market maniacs liked it and the downrampers have raised the white flag.
Perhaps they are trying to coordinate a media day for January and hopefully another real home demonstration while trying not to get over-shadowed by the Donald. Imagine if he got involved though!
January is now officially the end of the beginning
If the JV is signed by February, then FBR no longer have to worry about funding, and can focus on the complicated logistics of getting machine supplies coordinated and enticing builders to give the Hadrian-X some game time. CRH Ventures only have to fund the machines as they come on line, and that would only be once the active ones are earning cash.
My bet: 70/30 the JV gets signed in February