Forum Topics Stock Market Returns
Magneto
Added 2 months ago

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Came across this on X, thought might be interest for everyone here!!! Australia hasn’t done too bad over last century

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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Not quite a century @Magneto as they only started including Australia in the 1940s there in those tables. However there has certainly been share trading here in Australia since the 1850s (170 years) and we've had at least one stock exchange here since the late 1850s or early 1860s depending on the source:

According to the National Museum Australia (see here), In the 18 October 1852 issue of the Argus, Edward Khull listed 14 companies in which investors could buy shares, which was the first stock listing in Australia and led to the formation of the Melbourne Brokers Association, which traded from rented space in the Hall of Commerce on Collins Street from 1859. It was Australia’s first stock exchange.

According to Market Index (see here), Australia's first stock exchange was established in Melbourne in 1861. Over the next few decades, additional regional exchanges were established in Sydney (1871), Hobart (1882), Brisbane (1884), Adelaide (1887) and Perth (1889). All exchanges traded independently of each other until 1937 when the Australian Associated Stock Exchanges (AASE) was established, bringing with it uniformed listing and commission rules. The following year, in 1938, the first official share price index was published.

So you could be right about the last century, it's just that those tables only show Australia for the past 8 decades.

Interesting that Australia outperformed the US in four out of those eight decades (50% of them) - it hasn't felt like that since I've been in the game (almost 30 years) - it has always felt like the USA was thrashing us - which has a lot to do with big Tech of course which has seriously outperformed in recent decades.

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Magneto
Added 2 months ago

Thanks @Bear77 just notice after posted it wasn't quite a century!!! Thought would sneak in unnoticed. Not sure if read this before from Alta Fox Capital years ago did a study of "the making of a mulitbagger" https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5aaacb57506fbe4636414126/t/651dc6626edc551193e83dfe/1696450148005/Makings+of+a+MultiBagger.pdf It has quite a lot of multi baggers from Australia featured.


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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Thanks @Magneto - I hadn't read through that previously - very interesting - can't say I agree with much on slide 45 however titled "Appen Takeaways", despite Alta Fox making a 4,611% TSR over 5 years (at the time) on Appen (APX). Their assumptions about Appen's future from there were wayyyy off.

Still, as long as they got out when they knew the thesis was busted. Lots of multi-baggers there indeed, and plenty to learn from what the market missed in each case.

I note PME made the list - slides 130 to 135 - with a  1,167% TSR over 5 years. And Pro Medicus' best years were yet to come at that point! That's the one that got away for me. Always looked way too expensive and just kept rising anyway. You can't pat all the fluffy dogs, eh!

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SudMav
Added a month ago

Thanks @Magneto I really like this holistic overview of the markets.

It really shows that everything is cyclical nature of market and how yesterday's hero can go right back to the bottom in the next decade.

Sometimes its a good thing to be at the bottom of the list, as it gives countries a real incentive to innovate and get better.

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