Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 31 Jan 2025 15:03:32
Jimmy
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0401 GMT - Australian payments provider Zip regains its bull at Citi on a share selloff that analyst Siraj Ahmed says was overdone. Ahmed raises his recommendation to buy from neutral, reversing the switch he made back in October, telling clients in a note that Zip looks well-placed to resume revenue growth in Australia and New Zealand operating over the fiscal second half. He also thinks that operating expenses should moderate over the period after a season peak in the second quarter. Citi cuts its target price on the stock 9.1% to A$3.00. Shares are up 0.2% at A$2.445. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0353 GMT - ResMed's chief executive says he was always confident that the emergence of weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic would benefit his breathing-tech company. In 2023, ResMed's stock lost about 40% of its value in less than two months as analysts worried that medication would reduce demand for devices used to treat conditions including sleep apnea. Instead, ResMed CEO Mick Farrell says medication improved awareness of sleep apnea, lifting the number of patients seeking treatment of all forms. ResMed's stock has almost doubled in value since September 2023. "I was happy to be in the conversation with cardiovascular disease, stroke, COPD [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease], sleep apnea and all these chronic diseases. I knew it was huge for awareness." (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0036 GMT - Origin Energy's tax guidance looks high compared to consensus estimates, Jarden says. Origin had previously signaled that FY 2025 tax would be significantly higher than the A$628 million paid in FY 2024. Origin earlier quantified that the annual tax bill would likely be around A$1.0 billion. Analyst Nik Burns says that's some A$324 million higher than consensus forecasts, and expects the market to revise projections for Origin's cash flow in FY 2025 as a result. Origin is down 4.5%. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0028 GMT - Installment-payment provider Zip's adherence to its annual operating-expense guidance helps keep Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel confident on the stock. Samuel reckons that weakness in second-quarter revenue margins is due to seasonal factors, and points to U.S. consumer resilience and the potential for interest-rate cuts in both Australia and New Zealand as further reasons for his confidence. He tells clients in a note that the market was disappointed in Zip's 18% on-year growth in operating expenses, but observes that the company remains comfortable with its 6%-10% guidance for the full fiscal year. Besides, he says, Zip needs to spend if it is to grow. Jefferies has a buy rating and A$3.80 target price on the stock, which is up 3.7% at A$2.53. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0007 GMT - Brambles' already attractive valuation looks even more appetizing especially if the pallet giant continues to buy back shares and the macro environment helps accelerate growth, Macquarie analyst Peter Steyn says. He reiterates an outperform rating on the stock, telling clients in a note that a stabilizing macro environment should provide a good backdrop to the Australia-listed company's aim to lift new business growth by 1%-2% annually in revenue terms. Steyn says that capital absorption from lumber-price volatility and supply chain disruption is now unwinding, and that returns on capex look likely to be sustained and extended. Macquarie lifts its target price by 19% to A$21.20. Shares are down 0.15% at A$19.79. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2336 GMT - IGO and Tianqi Lithium recently agreed to stop work on a second lithium hydroxide plant at the Kwinana refinery in Australia. Jefferies thinks the first processing unit will also be mothballed over the next 12 months. The bank assumes the full carrying value of Kwinana at A$1.29 billion. "On current market prices and at current throughput rates we do not see Train I as economically viable on a standalone basis," analyst Mitch Ryan says. "As such we assume that both Trains will be placed into care and maintenance in the coming 12 months." Jefferies estimates a full writedown of IGO's share in Kwinana at A$640 million, which it describes as conservative. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2328 GMT - Base metals miner Sandfire Resources's net debt appears to have peaked, Jefferies says. Sandfire's net debt totaled US$288 million at the end of December, down from US$345 million three months earlier. That was supported by cash flow from the Matsa project in Spain and the Motheo operation in Botswana. "With FY 2025 set to see a full year of Motheo and Matsa delivering consistent production, we expect to see ongoing debt reduction over the course of FY 2025," analyst Mitch Ryan says. Jefferies expects Sandfire to be net cash by the end of December next year. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2326 GMT - Mineral Resources's net debt rose again in 2Q, but the company could be at a tipping point that allows pressure on its balance sheet to ease over time. MinRes reported net debt of A$5.7 billion in 2Q, up from A$5.0 billion in 1Q. Still, Jefferies notes the Onslow iron-ore mining operation has become cash flow positive. That should help MinRes to bring its debt burden down in coming years. "MinRes is approaching a step-change in iron ore earnings, and with it the ability to de-lever its balance sheet," analyst Mitch Ryan says. "That said, the medium-term risk from elevated debt in a falling iron ore and soft lithium environment prevents us from turning more constructive." Jefferies retains a hold call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2322 GMT - Beach Energy is approaching a time for deals, suggests Macquarie. Net debt fell to A$389 million in 2Q, from A$555 million in 1Q, and is set to improve again as management agree to the sale of a fifth liquefied natural gas swap cargo from the Waitsia project in Australia. Beach retains liquidity of some A$631 million. "We expect Beach will be seeking other acquisitions," Macquarie says. Scrip deals could now work, given Beach's share price is up more than 40% since its September low, the bank adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2303 GMT - Citi thinks Karoon Energy's shares could rise over the next 90 days as the company mulls a deal for the floating production storage and offloading vessel at the Bauna field in Brazil. Analyst James Byrne thinks a deal could boost Karoon's net present value and EPS. Eliminating the cost of leasing the vessel would more than offset any increase in depreciation and amortization, Citi says. That's because "the D&A would be spread over a longer period and with a higher resource base, seeing consensus EPS sharply higher in our view," Citi says. Also, the bank expects an update on the Neon deposit's resource. That would be positive as Karoon's stock doesn't appear to include any value for Neon, Citi says. Karoon ended Thursday at A$1.535. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2253 GMT - ResMed's solid 2Q update looks likely to be viewed positively by the market, RBC analyst Craig Wong-Pan reckons. He points out in a note to clients that, while the breathing-tech provider's gross margin was a touch softer than the market had been looking for, it did not go backward compared with the prior three months. Revenue was slightly stronger than both the average analyst forecast and Wong-Pan's expectation, while net income was more than 4% ahead of the analyst average forecast. Device revenues were also ahead of expectations in both the Americas and rest-of-the-world, he adds. RBC has a last-published sector-perform rating on ResMed's U.S.-listed stock. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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