Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 06 Feb 2025 15:02:01
Jimmy
Added a month ago

0345 GMT - SGH remains a buy for UBS analysts, who anticipate ongoing earnings momentum from the Australian engineering and construction group. They think that the stock's recent rerate to 20 times earnings on a one-year forward basis, compared with a 10-year average of 13X, has been underpinned by investors' greater appreciation of its proven earnings delivery and investment discipline. With operational discipline at the Boral business now under SGH's control and mining maintenance demand looking strong at its WesTrac unit, they forecast average annual earnings growth of 8% for the next three fiscal years. UBS raises its target price 24% to A$56.00. Shares are up 0.7% at A$49.32. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0045 GMT - Droneshield's bull at Shaw & Partners thinks that the security tech provider's long-term growth prospects are intact despite softer-than-expected December-quarter revenue. Analyst Abraham Akra tells clients in a note that quarterly revenue fell well short of his forecast, prompting him to trim his 2025 and 2026 revenue expectations by 20%. This reflects delayed tender activity and a decline in global conflicts, he explains. Even so, he keeps a buy rating on Droneshield, which develops drone-detection hardware and software. Shaw has a A$0.90 target price on the stock, which is down 1.5% at A$0.65. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0026 GMT - Pinnacle's bull at Wilsons Advisory believes that its opportunity in Australia's managed-accounts market has yet to be fully priced into its stock. Analyst Cameron Halkett tells clients in a note that he has conviction in the medium-term EPS growth potential from managed accounts offered by Pinnacle affiliate Pacific Asset Management. He points to Life Cycle's strong performance since becoming an affiliate in Pinnacle's most recent fiscal half as evidence of the opportunity on offer. It's possible that Pinnacle could deliver more than A$100 million in gross performance fees in its fiscal second half, Halkett adds. Wilsons lifts its target price 9% to A$28.95 and stays overweight on the stock, which is down 1.7% at A$25.60. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0000 GMT - Computershare could beat its full-year EPS guidance amid slower-than-expected interest-rate cuts in the U.S., Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note. They lift their forecasts for so-called management EPS by 3% in fiscal 2025 and by 6% in fiscal 2026, citing U.S. rates and better margin balances. The Australia-listed share-registry provider benefits from higher rates due to interest earned on funds held for dividends. Morgan Stanley now anticipates 10% growth in fiscal 2025 management EPS, which is about 3% ahead of company guidance. MS lifts its target price by 12% to A$31.10 and stays equal-weight on the stock, which is up 1.1% at A$35.17. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2345 GMT - Goldman Sachs analysts see mixed signals on Chinese demand for Treasury Wine Estates' Penfolds brand. Scanning e-commerce shopping channels for clues, they see the February price of Penfolds Bin 389 wine sitting close to where it was before the Lunar New Year celebrations. This is 17% lower than the prior month's tracking price and points to potentially weaker demand, they write in a note. However, the price of Bin 407 wine has increased on pre-Lunar New Year levels and is consistent with the prior month. They reckon this as evidence of strong retail demand. GS has a buy rating and A$13.00 target price on Treasury shares, which are up 0.75% at A$10.73 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2341 GMT - The retirement of REA Group CEO Owen Wilson suggests to Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed that the Australian real-estate advertiser is unlikely to make another near-term takeover tilt at U.K. counterpart Rightmove. Ahmed points out that the six-month restriction period that followed REA's unsuccessful move for Rightmove expires in late March. Wilson is scheduled to retire in 2025. Ahmed writes in a note that he does not see guidance for higher costs as a big negative given that the increase is revenue-related. Citi has a buy rating and A$230.00 target price on the News Corp-controlled classifieds group. Shares are down 2.3% at A$246.02. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2328 GMT - Bell Potter junks its sell call on Platinum Asset Management, but says the trend for revenue and costs continues to look difficult. Platinum ended talks with Regal Partners over a takeover worth about A$0.90/share late last year. Its stock is currently below A$0.69. That ramps up pressure on Platinum's board to deliver more value than the approach it turned down, analyst Marcus Barnard says. "With revenue still falling, new growth initiatives yet to deliver and the shares trading well below Regal's offer, the company has a lot to prove," Bell Potter says. It moves to hold, from sell. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2312 GMT - Comet Ridge's signal that a final investment decision on its Mahalo natural-gas project in Australia won't happen this year contributes to Bell Potter cutting its price target by 19% to A$0.21/share. Still, analyst Stuart Howe remains bullish about Comet Ridge, highlighting that Mahalo is one of the few development-ready projects capable of delivering near-term gas supply to eastern Australia. Comet Ridge expects preliminary design and engineering work at Mahalo to continue through this year. Only when this is completed will it make a final investment decision, or FID, with partner Santos. "We expect Comet Ridge's majority equity positions in the Mahalo projects and a strong gas market outlook to provide support for development funding across debt, equity and gas prepayments," Bell Potter says. "However, we also acknowledge risks to FID timing." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2303 GMT - Centuria Office REIT's 1H result suggests to Bell Potter that asset valuations are nearing a trough. It highlights that valuations of 37% of Centuria Office REIT's portfolio increased or stabilized in 1H. "This, along with improving office transaction volumes in 1H, suggest book values are close to 'the bottom'," says analyst Connor Eldridge. Bell Potter now estimates an expansion of 40 basis points in Centuria Office REIT's 1H weighted average capitalization rate over the next 12 months. Evidence that asset values are finding a floor "will alleviate balance-sheet pressure," Bell Potter says. It notes that Centuria Office REIT had gearing of 42.9% at the end of June, above its 25%-35% target range. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2244 GMT - Beach Energy's interim dividend falls short of market expectations, with Barrenjoey noting the payout doesn't align with the company's distribution policy. Beach declared an interim dividend of 3 Australian cents a share. While that was up 50% on last year it fell short of the 4 cents anticipated by the market. Analyst Dale Koenders points out that Beach reported free cash flow of A$431 million in 1H. "But this free cash flow then also implies a payout ratio of only 16%, below policy of 40-50%," Koenders says in his initial response to the result. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2239 GMT - Zircon prices are likely to remain resilient, benefiting Australia's Iluka Resources, says Macquarie. It expects the zircon price to stay above US$1,730/ton in the medium term and then rise in 2029 when the market tips into a deficit. "We also highlight that our supply forecast does not include production rationalization by major producers, which happened during the last zircon price trough in 2016," Macquarie says. Demand trends look positive. The continued push by the Chinese government to ensure property developments are completed supports demand for ceramics, which represents some 50% of zircon consumption, Macquarie says. It keeps an outperform call on Iluka. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2234 GMT - Air New Zealand looks a good bet to achieve the upper end of 1H profit guidance following a solid finish to the period, Macquarie says. Revenue per available seat kilometer, a key performance metric for airlines, rose 0.7% in 1H when currency swings and travel credits are excluded. That reversed a fall in RASK through November. Air New Zealand previously signaled expectations for a 1H pretax profit of NZ$120 million-NZ$160 million. "With a strong December set of operating statistics, we expect Air New Zealand to be at the upper end of this range," Macquarie says. "While 2H has challenges, we see stabilization rather than any further deterioration." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2231 GMT - REA Group's business model is strong enough for the Australian real-estate advertiser to sustain the departure of its chief executive, E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski says. He acknowledges that retiring CEO Owen Wilson is incredibly well regarded, but is confident in the business. He writes in a note that REA's fiscal first-half result looks good. The News Corp-controlled classifieds provider's solid start to its second half is slightly offset by higher operating-expense guidance, he adds. E&P has a last-published neutral rating and A$206.80 target price on the stock, which is at A$251.85 ahead of the open. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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