Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 07 Feb 2025 15:00:17
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Added a month ago

0140 GMT - Investors should watch AMP's annual results announcement for any comments on the potential for further capital management outside of dividends, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They use a note to clients to flag opportunities including from monetization of non-core equity stakes and lower platform capital requirements. The GS analysts, who see flow risks around AMP's sale of its advice business and are cautious on AMP's ability to win flows, are keen for an update on December-quarter flows and margin outlook. Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating and A$1.54 target price on the stock, which is down 1.0% at A$1.7425. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0111 GMT - Goldman Sachs analysts are confident that Australian property advertiser REA Group can sustain double-digit yield growth past Owen Wilson's retirement as CEO. They think that the health of the Australian property market gives the News Corp-controlled company a strong hand as it enters pricing discussions for fiscal 2026. They point to low churn rates following recent price rises. The listings outlook into the medium term is more positive than GS had previously anticipated, they write in a note to clients. They lift their earnings forecasts through fiscal 2027 and raise their target price on the stock by 2% to A$273. GS keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 3.5% at A$263.90. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0105 GMT - REA Group is more likely to engage in capital management than to take another near-term tilt at U.K. property advertiser Rightmove, Macquarie analysts write in a note. They tell clients that the announcement that Chief Executive Owen Wilson will retire in the second half of 2025 doesn't appear to leave room for a revised proposal for Rightmove. REA cannot make another approach for Rightmove until late March due to U.K. takeover rules. Macquarie's analysts say that the health of the Australian property market makes this the perfect time for News Corp-controlled REA to hike prices, but see this as unlikely. Macquarie lifts its target price 1.9% to A$270.00 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock. Shares are up 3.7% at A$264.41. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0057 GMT - REA Group's bulls at UBS see the Australian real-estate advertiser facing a few potential second-half headwinds. Analysts at the investment bank maintain a buy rating on the stock, but warn clients in a note of potential impacts from geographic mix, a comparison with strong year-earlier volumes, and deferred activity due to the timing of public holidays and a federal election. Nonetheless, they still think that the News Corp-controlled company is operating a high-quality business and see platform and penetration tailwinds coming in fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027. UBS lifts its target price by 9.7% to A$294.00. Shares are up 3.8% at A$264.48. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2342 GMT - Appliances maker Breville's 1H result next Tuesday is likely to be topical, Morgan Stanley says. Analyst Joseph Michael thinks revenue could positively surprise but the risk of U.S. tariffs remains high. "We continue to like the long-term story (Overweight rated), but after the recent share price strength, the market will likely require a strong 1H and outlook to hold its multiples," MS says. Its base case is for a 1% upgrade to consensus expectations for revenue and EBIT. Breville's shares are up nearly 40% over the past year. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2336 GMT - Beach Energy's stock had rallied more than 40% ahead of its 1H result only for the company to disappoint again. Morgans downgrades Beach to hold, from add, because it sees 2H being tougher and says management still has important questions to answer. "A largely in line 1H result, with a dividend miss, continued troubles at Waitsia, narrowed FY25 guidance that could trigger consensus downgrades, and capex skew that puts pressure on 2H free cash flow generation," analyst Adrian Prendergast says. Beach expects first gas sales from its Waitsia Stage 2 project in Western Australia in 4Q, but the project remains tricky, Morgans says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2323 GMT - Location app developer Life360's expansion into pet tracking could lift user numbers by 9% and increase paid subscriptions by even more, Jefferies analyst Wei Sim says. Citing the findings of a Jefferies survey of more than 1,000 people in the U.S., he reckons that pet tracking could drive a 22% increase in paid subscriptions. The survey also suggests that introduction of advertising could reduce monthly active users by 0.9%, but increase paid subscriptions by 1.1% as users seek to avoid ads. Sim tells clients in a note that both ventures are value accretive, and likely to contribute more meaningfully from 2026. Jefferies lifts its target price 11% to A$30.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is down 1.2% at A$23.10. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2250 GMT - REA Group's net cash position could lead to capital management from the Australian real-estate advertiser, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel reckons. Keeping a hold rating on the stock, Samuel tells clients in a note that he thinks that REA can sustain double-digit buy-yield growth into the medium term due to the quality and quantity of leads it provides relative to rivals. He is untroubled by REA's increased cost guidance, pointing out that it's largely linked to revenue and the News Corp-controlled company's performance. Jefferies increases its target price 4.4% to A$248.20. Shares are at A$254.90 ahead of the open. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2232 GMT - Beach Energy's desire to pay a progressively higher dividend stokes doubt at Citi. Analyst James Byrne says a progressive dividend is inconsistent with a tight payout range and the nature of a commodity facing business with lumpy capex. Progressive dividends can work for exploration and production companies for a few years. Then the free cash flow runs out, Citi says, such as when as the energy price cycle turns. Paying out 40% of free cash flow in FY 2025 equates to a A$0.07/share final dividend. Beach's interim dividend was A$0.03/share. "With our FY 2026 free cash flow only supporting A$0.08/share in total (50% payout, US$61/bbl Brent) there isn't any room to be more 'progressive' on dividends if the overall FY 2025 payout is in the 40-50% range," Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2223 GMT - Risks posed by U.S. tariffs now appear largely priced into auto parts retailer ARB's stock, says Jefferies, upgrading it to hold from underperform. ARB's key factories are in Thailand and its largest market is the U.S. Analyst John Campbell notes the U.S. hasn't threatened tariffs on Thai imports, but Thailand's trade surplus with the U.S. could make it a future target. "This obviously poses a risk for ARB's export efforts into the U.S., which represent 40% of all ARB exports and 20% of our FY 2026 ARB group revenue" estimate, Jefferies says. Still, if tariffs are contained only to Chinese imports to the U.S. then ARB has a chance to expand margins or its market share, the bank adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1409 ET - News Corp has noticed a tangible increase in business confidence in the U.S. since November's election, CEO Robert Thomson says on a call with analysts. He attributes the improved sentiment to "the yoke of woke having been lifted." Thomas notes, though, that President Trump's tariff plans have shaken confidence some. This has in turn helped New Corp's business: "The uncertainty regarding the transactional tariffs is driving demand for Dow Jones Energy's insights and forecasting services as clients seek to understand the potential impact on global energy markets and investment opportunities," Thomson says. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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