Forum Topics AD8 AD8 Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

The trend is your friend.

I sold out mid last year at around $17 when the web traffic fell off a cliff.

The commentary on Strawman a few months ago was all fairly positive - in the expectation business would pick up once backlog inventory cleared.

The web traffic seems to be trending up... I'm back in between $7 and 8.

(Web traffic volume measured through free websites is not always a good indicator of how a business is going. It is more complicated with audinate because it has a second website getdante.com)

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Bear77
Added a month ago

Hi @cbirtles - can you clarify please why the web traffic is important? Is it prospective investors' interest that you are monitoring, or potential customers? Because my understanding was that virtually all of Audinate's sales are to OEMs, who already know about Audinate and how to order from them. I would have thought that the majority of web traffic is likely to be people doing some research (DD) on the company, looking at it as a prospective investment, but that the share price would be a better indication of investor sentiment than web traffic, i.e. when people are buying and the share price is rising, that suggests that investor sentiment towards Audinate and Dante is improving. What have I missed?

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cbirtles
Added a month ago

It’s pretty redimentary, You make a good point though, the getdante.com website has more product information than the investor webpage. Curious the uptick in visits.

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Bear77
Added a month ago

Could even be driven by some pumps on HC or elsewhere. But I'm thinking that's unlikely to be customers or prospective customers, particularly if it's their investor webpage, so not really a fundamental indicator of much, certainly not of increasing sales. I still feel the market is waiting to see AD8's reports - like 2 of them perhaps - a half year and a full year report - indicating that they have returned to the sort of sales growth they were exhibiting a couple of years ago. It will take something like that to turn the market's frown upside down when it comes to a company they perceive as ex-growth - for now at least. You and I know they're NOT ex-growth, however the market wants to see the numbers, so I think there are better places to park my investable capital than AD8 until they turn that corner again. And it will happen, they do have a massive growth runway, no argument, but that growth slowed down due to the overstocking issues associated with Covid and chip supply issues and the market needs to be satisfied that has all worked through and is no longer an issue before it's going to get excited about AD8 again, IMO. And my view is that the market is going to want to see that in their reported numbers, not just in positive outlook statements.

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thunderhead
Added a month ago

Good comments here JC.

The question, as always, is what's priced in, and that's a tough one to gauge. The re-rate could be rapid if they show they have turned the corner, but equally, there is a risk of the market throwing another tantrum if they disappoint (whether it is justified or not!).

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Bear77
Added a month ago

Very true TH. I would doubt they would double from here on just one positive report this month. But they could. I personally feel the market is going to need two, so for the next 6 months I think personally that there is more likelihood of sideways or further downward share price movement, so I remain on the sidelines with AD8 until I see a share price uptrend that looks sustainable to me.

I have no idea what their report this month will be like, but I remain bullish on them longer term. I just don't want to have direct exposure to them while they remain in this SP downtrend.

Just my own thoughts. I could be wrong. They might rally hard on this month's report, as you say.

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Aaronfzr
Added 4 weeks ago

Agreed, let the market tell us when the bottom is in then ride the upside. I don't hold, but my wife does, happy for us to watch from the sidelines until they show us the tide is turning

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