Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 10 Feb 2025 14:59:36
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0230 GMT - While Incitec Pivot's latest trading update is slightly negative for FY25 earnings, the market should largely look through it, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. "The key investment and valuation drivers remain on track," they say. Those drivers are the Dyno Nobel transformation measures, targeting roughly A$300 million EBIT uplift, and the FY25 timing of its planned fertilizers separation, they say. RBC keeps an outperform rating and A$3.90 target. Incitec is down 0.5% at A$2.955/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0143 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises' bulls at Goldman Sachs want to see evidence of improved same-store sales growth at the Australian fast-food franchiser. GS analysts are encouraged by how swiftly the new CEO has pivoted to refocus on unit economics, but tell clients in a note that this is just a first step. They think it is now critical for the company to provide investors with comfort that same-store sales growth has passed an inflection point, especially in the more challenging Japan and France markets. GS lowers its sales forecasts through fiscal 2027 and cuts its target price 4.7% to A$38.30. Shares are down 0.9% at A$35.60. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0103 GMT - Australia's BlueScope Steel is tipped to be a winner from President Trump's planned 25% tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum. The stock rises 2.8% to A$22.11/share, as the broader Australian market trades in the red. The U.S. is BlueScope's top region for growth. The steelmaker, which runs the North Star mini-mill in Ohio, is working to boost volumes there by another 10% following the completion of an expansion that increased output by nearly 50%. Trump says he plans to announce the 25% tariffs Monday. U.S. tariffs could help offset tough steel-market conditions for BlueScope, with spreads in Asia especially soft. BlueScope's stock hit A$22.365 earlier in Sydney, its highest since Dec. 2. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0026 GMT - The speed with which Domino's Pizza Enterprises' new CEO has plotted a recovery path allows the Australian fast-food franchiser to shake off its bear at Macquarie. An analyst note to the investment bank's clients shows the stock raised to neutral from underperform, with the pace of CEO Mark van Dyck's strategy overhaul cited as a significant positive surprise. The refined focus on franchisee sales is seen as the key positive, since it has implications for long-term network performance. Macquarie lifts its target price on the stock 25% to A$35.10. Shares are down 2.7% at A$34.96. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2357 GMT - Logistics software developer WiseTech Global should be a net beneficiary of the complexity that tariffs could add to global trade, RBC analyst Garry Sherriff says. He thinks that tariffs could spur demand for the Australian company's CargoWise platform, particularly its customs and compliance modules. Sherriff tells clients in a note that medium-term structural tailwinds remain in place but anticipates near-term negative sentiment from continued leadership uncertainty and local media coverage of personal allegations against founder Richard White. RBC has a last-published sector-perform rating and A$125.00 target price on the stock, which is down 3.5% at A$125.40. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2348 GMT - CAR Group's bull at Citi is concerned by the quality of the Australian vehicle advertiser's first-half result. Analyst Siraj Ahmed highlights A$16 million in below-the-line costs and higher-than-expected capital expenditure in a note to clients. The latter was 17% higher than Ahmed had anticipated, and now accounts for 11% of revenue. Overall, however, Ahmed sees the result as quite resilient given tough industry conditions in the U.S. and private buying normalizing in Australia. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$42.40 target price on the stock, which is down 6.8% at A$38.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2346 GMT - While JB Hi-Fi's 1H earnings were very strong, Jefferies expects a weaker gross profit margin to dominate the conversation. JB Hi-Fi beat EBIT expectations for every division in 1H and its January sales stayed robust. Still, JB Hi-Fi's gross margin of 22.12% was 19 basis points lower than a year earlier at the group level, with margins in its JB Hi-Fi Australia business falling below pre-Covid levels for the first time. Analyst Michael Simotas also notes JB Hi-Fi's cautious outlook given uncertainty in the retail market and ongoing competition, but says management is typically conservative. JB Hi-Fi is up 0.3%. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2338 GMT - Macquarie serves up two contrarian ideas for investors as Australia's corporate-earnings season extends into its second week. It believes the market likely fears a CSL miss, given the pharmaceutical company's stock hasn't yet arrested a share-price slide that began in July and some analysts have cut forecasts. CSL's stock is down some 13% since July 23. "It should benefit from the lower AUD and pharma tends to outperform after RBA cuts," Macquarie says. Many economists expect Australia's central bank to cut interest rates this month, which would be the first time since inflation ran hot in the pandemic's aftermath. Macquarie is also bullish about property company Mirvac, saying it would also benefit from rate cuts. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2234 GMT - CAR Group shares will likely underperform despite the Australian vehicle advertiser's reasonable 1H result, E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski reckons. He points out that December-half proforma revenue, proforma Ebitda and adjusted net profit fell short of analyst expectations by 2.5%, 1.8% and 2.7%, respectively. CAR also downgraded its annual revenue guidance for its North American Trader Interactive business to good from solid, he adds. Combined with the stock's strong run ahead of the result, this is likely to lead to a negative market reaction, Raykovski writes in a note. E&P has a neutral rating and A$34.80 target price on the stock, which is at A$41.03 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2222 GMT - JB Hi-Fi's shares are likely to remain in favor with investors after its 1H profit beats expectations and January sales look strong, Barrenjoey says. JB Hi-Fi reported a A$285.4 million net profit and A$419.9 million Ebit in 1H. Analyst Tom Kierath says Ebit exceeded consensus forecasts of A$409 million. January like-for-like sales growth of 7.1% at JB Hi-Fi Australia stores is outpacing Barrenjoey's forecast of a 6% increase in 3Q. "Given the beat and strong January we expect the shares to continue trading well," says Barrenjoey, which had a neutral call on JB Hi-Fi ahead of the 1H result. JB Hi-Fi's shares are up some 69% over the past 12 months. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2211 GMT - Sigma Healthcare is already showing early benefits from its merger with Chemist Warehouse, and Jefferies is optimistic that the good news will continue. Sigma upgraded its FY 2025 guidance for normalized Ebit to A$64 million-A$70 million, from a prior target of A$50 million-A$60 million. Jefferies expects A$67.2 million. "We believe margin expansion within Sigma can continue," says analyst David Stanton. Jefferies lifts its price target on Sigma by 4.9% to A$2.15/share, although that's below the current stock price of A$2.92 and the key reason why the bank stays at underperform. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2205 GMT - Jefferies doesn't expect AGL Energy's 1H result to be as strong as last year and investors should be OK with that. It forecasts 1H Ebitda of A$937 million, down from A$1.07 billion a year ago, because realized electricity prices eased over the period. Net profit also likely declined to A$270 million, says Jefferies, acknowledging that consensus hopes are some 12% higher than that. "However, the current pricing stability remains attractive, with the increased benefit from the increased flexibility of coal generators," analyst Anthony Moulder says. "With forward wholesale electricity prices remaining elevated for FY 2026, and with earnings and cash flows remaining supportive for further investment in grid connected batteries, AGL remains well-positioned." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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