Forum Topics KOV KOV KOV valuation

Pinned valuation:

Last edited 3 months ago
Justification

Why I like the business:

  • Strong brand recognition for quality workmanship
  • Dividend yield of around 7% at current price (nearly 10% gross)
  • Consistent revenue since 2017 and is able to win contracts with quick turnarounds to maximise profits.
  • Current value equates to 13.5% ROI under McNiven, with expected ROE of 20% (slightly less than last year)


Recent H1 Update

  • Revenues - Down 1.1% to $51,125m
  • NPAT down 28.5% to $4,088
  • EPS down 34.8c
  • $670k one off costs to rectify Galvanising issue + engineering claim, some of which will be reclaimed via insurance
  • Ezystrut (main business) had some margin contractions initially due to increased staff, freight and occupancy costs.
  • 1.1m spent on trucking equipment to inhouse freight operations, WA live and SA going live in second half
  • Kettle change will be required in 2025 (est. outage 2-3 weeks according to chatgpt)
  • FY 2025 expected to exceed FY24 profit


Reading between the lines here, even with the slight decrease and outage, it appears that they have won a lucrative contract, and the price savings for in-housing freight will further improve margins.

Traditionally final dividend is much higher at the end of the year, and likely to be close to or similar to the 35-40c paid over the past few years.

Not a sexy business, but happy to be a beneficiary IRL since it bottomed at $2. Expecting them to continue this growth going forwards.


Est NPAT = $11.2m

EPS = 0.953

PE = Historic 9-12x depending where you are in the dividend cycle

Value = $9.5 to $12.5 range

Expecting it to reach $11.5 pre dividend payout but normalise back down to the $11 range.

Bear77
Added 3 months ago

I worked for Korvest in their EzyStrut division on Prospect Rd, Kilburn, here in Adelaide, for about 3 months between working for FH Faulding and Coke, so almost 20 years ago @SudMav - and you're right, far from a sexy business, and the pay was low, however they did have an enterprise agreement, which most companies tend to do, and by the sound of it they have agreed to give their workers a decent pay rise recently since they're calling out employee expenses as one reason for some margin compression, although you'd hope they could claw that back through price increases since they don't have a lot of competition in that segment as I understand it, and their cable trays are generally considered to be pretty good in terms of quality and durability, they're welded properly, mostly by robots, then they galvanise them all themselves.

Wait a sec, didn't I already share this with you, that I once worked for them...

Yep, I did - 5 months ago: https://strawman.com/forums/topic/9703

Ah well, interesting about the margin compression.

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PortfolioPlus
Added 3 months ago

I agree, not a sexy biz, and never likely to be a market leader. But a solid performer that will go the distance in any economic climate and the ff divs will ensure the SMSF fraternity (and I’m one) can afford a juicy steak or two rather than mince or worse, Pal dog food.

Hey Bear, currently in your home town enjoying Writers Week & the Fringe festival…not to mention the wine tours…thank you KOV, GNC & SXE.

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SudMav
Added 3 months ago

Enjoy @PortfolioPlus - SA is such an amazing place to live and the wineries are great!

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SudMav
Added a month ago

@Strawman - Not sure if you have tried to in the past, but would it be possible to reach out to Chris Hartwig to see if he would be keen to have a chat about KOV?

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