Pinned straw:
I haven't done detailed numbers as I haven't been in FEX for ages but diluting ~30% to most likely at least double production should be accretive as longs as IO stays above USD90/t for 62%. CZR's last study (late 2023) had $110m in capex with an NPV8 of $256m at USD90/t. Spot is USD100-105/t atm so NPV probably +/-$500m atm(?). So say capex of $140m (~25% inflation), opex up 5-10%, and taking of the acquisition price, net NPV on deal basis maybe $300-400m post tax. In theory, deal would be most accretive if FEX can internally fund it and probably would require no divs for a bit longer. Raising the capex in equity would likely make it much less interesting.