Yes @stevegreenycom , Marcus is very loud and proud about his ability to "time the market".

Whilst I do enjoy listening to his podcasts, I don't subscribe to his timing the market strategies. Probably easy to do when your only using play money portfolios, but much tougher in real life with tax and other implications (not to mention simply missing the timing both ways).

Marcus is an interesting character! While I don't agree with 100% cash and always being in and out. Ive been trimming/selling to build cash especially from core ETF holdings then looking at every company individually. So I think the sediment is right.

The US administration is actively trying to break things, undermine separation of powers/rule of law and disregarding basic economics principles. To me it feels like everyone is waiting to see if it all does break. I'm not waiting, there is no way this ends well for the US in my opinion so have to take some risk off the table.

If you haven't already, take a look at Atlanta Fed GDPnow figure. Currently predicting -2.4% (annualised figure) GDP growth for the US in the first quarter. To note this figure becomes more accurate as more data for the quarter becomes available so not entirely reliable but not a great sign...

I dont know if he will be right or wrong, and dont care, but i bet if he is right you will never hear the end of it, and if he is wrong...........whats that swept under the carpet? lol

long record of multiple talking heads doing that

I was a fan of Roger Montgomery who also had an amazing crystal ball and intelligent narrative, such as predicting the over building of housing around 2018 triggering a downturn in retail from droves on unemployed chippies and sparkies. Then he predicted a tech crash in 2019 with unprofitable businesses like Xero (~$50) and WiseTech (~$20) etc. https://www.professionalplanner.com.au/2018/12/cash-might-be-king-in-2019/ .

What I like about Strawman is we have our portfolio performance on display.

I initially found Marcus interesting, but these days I avoid reading his material. He likes promoting a bold opinion. But I don't find his reasoning coherent. With most of his articles I got to the end and felt he'd used a lot of words to say very little. Or worse, what he did say seemed to contradict itself. He may have a good intuitive sense of the market. But for me, I don't find his communications valuable.

Well for those interested here is Marcus' post on X. Obviously he is talking up his own book after going 100% cash.

Quick observation - The big falls in our big stocks, particularly the banks yesterday (ANZ -2.1%, BHP -1.8%, CBA -1.4%, NAB -2.1%, RIO -1.8%, WBC -2.0%, WES -2.6%, WOW -1.5%), suggest that some large international fund manager(s) gave up on Australia (and the Australian dollar).

This would reflect a negative view on global growth, Chinese growth, and commodity prices. And you can't blame them. US brokers have been going negative on Australia this week, and some major fund managers (BlackRock, Bridgewater) have cut their exposure to Australian equities, with BlackRock saying they "viewed Australian equities as overvalued, considering their weaker earnings compared to international peers. If you look at the outlook for earnings growth for Australian equities, it is an outlier compared to other countries around the world—it really does have poor earnings growth and valuations are stretched".

UBS says Australian equities are "too expensive, given the softer outlook for earnings". The ASX is trading at nearly 18x forward earnings, above the 25-year average of 14.8x.

If a US (global) recession comes, and China lives with 20% tariffs for 12 months, commodities, the A$, Chinese growth, and the ASX are going nowhere.

I too saw where Marcus Padley from MarcusToday has gone the full cash. I guess in a world flooded with stock market porn, selling tip-sheet subscriptions is a tough game.  

And like a financially mutant version of Dirk Diggler, more and more outrageous acts are needed to get any attention.   The Dirk Digglear Story - Wikipedia

It’s tough earning a living, so good luck to him I guess.  

The other point to note for those following Marcus Padley is his opining in 2021 about the idea of a "one stock portfolio". His musing was if you only owned one stock you would learn everything you could about it, follow it, understand etc, so it should be "less risky".

And if it does well you do well. If something happens and it doesn't do well then you sell it.

Summary of it all here on the fool site - https://www.fool.com.au/2022/03/02/i-personally-only-own-2-asx-shares-fund-manager/

Sounds simple enough. What did he choose? Poisedin Nickel (ASX:POS) and here is what he had to say when he recommended it -

• Poseidon Nickel (POS) – I have seen the life cycle of a Nickel project turning into a mine before (Sally Malay – it listed at 20c and went to 600c). If Peter Harold (a mate) can do it again at POS it will multi-bag again. It has the Nickel price behind it being driven by electric vehicle/electrification/battery demand. Because I know Peter, I know his history, have seen him execute the “project to production” job before (at Sally Malay/Panoramic Resources), and know he is a family man with experience, reputation, integrity, honest intention, and perpetual effort. I see the stock as ‘safer’ than any other investor might see it.

The share price was 7c at the time. Things started to go badly a year later...so what did he do...sell as suggested above? No, he recommended people buy more.

The sad end of this story is POS was delisted, basically worthless, in early 2025.

Now, we all know stock picking and forecasting is hard but if anyone thinks Marcus possesses super powers or above average insights, this horrible example, that no doubt some of his supporters would have followed him in to, should give you pause for thought!

Beware gurus, especially financial ones.

One of the biggest epiphany's I ever had was the realisation that no one has any real clue as to what's going on, or what's going to happen. Some people are closer to the truth than others, but our tiny ape minds cant ever fully grasp the insane complexity of the world. The more hubris and confident someone is, the more sceptical i am.

The only rational standpoint is one of humility and to continually try and destroy your own beliefs. Strong opinions, loosely held.

(Of course, I have plenty of strong opinions, and am never afraid to share them -- passionately -- but I'd like to think I'd drop them in a heartbeat if ever there was good cause to do so. That being said, i'm 90% sure i'm lying to myself in saying that!! haha)

Great thread, and I especially love these two latest posts by @Strawman and @Karmast (especially the way you always offer evidence and examples!!).

I reflect on my own journey in stock picking.

In late 2016, I transitioned from investing in broad-based ETFs (like $VGS, $IVV, $NDQ) where, to be honest, for 20 years I'd earned a nice market return. This was the only way for me to invest, as before then I had a very demanding full time career, and could not pay attention to individual stocks.

In these early days, even knowing the research on how returns via fund managers on average under-perform, I'll admit to often being easily impressed by recommendations, and investing with relatively little personal research.

But over time, as I increasingly followed my own research, made as many mistakes on my own "discoveries" as by following recommendations, I increasingly got to observe a few things:

• There is a "survivor bias" in investors and funds that claim to out-perform over 5, 7 and 10 years etc. (I don't care about shorter time horizonz)
• Many, if not most, cherry pick to market their wins, while staying silent on their losses
• Some are blatantly full of BS, "I bought AAA when it was $X and I'm out now at 3x$X" or, when BBB has fallen 50%, "we got out a month ago" (I think, for example, that some of the "talking heads" on things like Ausbiz forget that you can go back over historical recordings and see what they said, 1 or 2 years ago ....oooops)

And, importantly, I have gone from completely ignoring technical analysts and momentum investors, to at least considering technicals and momentum in timing or phasing my investment decisions, some times. However, my timeframe is such that technical investing remains largely irrelevant.

Some of the best marketers and loudest talking heads say things that sound impressive, but in reality I've concluded that they have no clue ... or not much more of a clue than me.

It also worth remember that some of the giants are very fallible. I remember that after decrying what a bad investment airlines were for decades, Warren Buffet eventually bought a bunch and then lost of ton of money doing so. And again, after for many years saying he didn't understand and wouldn't invest in tech, it turns out that his holdings in $APPL have been THE major contributor to $BRK's total returns over the last 5 years. Without that, BRK would have very ordinary returns over recent years.

So, nine years into my stock-picking journey, I tend to ignore some of the grand claims (e.g. like the one stock portfolio idea) or "rotate from X into Y for reason Z".

But I do listen a lot to what others say and to what other write. They provide ideas, stimulus, challenge to my own thought process. They help me answer the questions I make before every investment: "What is my counterparty to this trade seeing that I'm not? What time horizon is at play here? What am I missing?"

The more experience I get, the more I learn to be humble, curious, and cautious. By all means, I'll have a point of view and a conviction, but I'll accept I might be wrong and I'll analyse the consequences of what that might entail.

But I've long moved passed believing that someone has the secret sauce, the magic formula or the big idea. And the more a "talking head" makes a claim like that, the more I switch off.

Well said @mikebrisy

I've always found it strange that most of the AusBiz guests don't publish any audited results on their websites. Feels like something you'd crow about if you had a good track record... ;)

I have a theory that might one day become Mikebrisy's Law:

[Portfolio Return of Ausbiz Talking Head] is inversely proportional to a function of [Volume of Word Salad and Use of Terms including {rotation, thematic, cycle, going forward}]

But. as you say, they don't publish their returns, so we'll never know, so at best it will remain The Mikebrisy Hypothesis.

Sometimes I feel the only relevant question when talking to a financial guru doling out advice is...."so what's your money in ?".

Alternatively, if they ask you what your money is in....I simply reply "you first".

Strong agree @topowl -- money talks, and you know what walks!

Also, love that law @mikebrisy. And i'm definitely going with Law over hypothesis!

Reminds me of Cunningham’s Law: 'The best way to get the right answer on the internet is not to ask a question, but to post the wrong answer". Which in this context might be rephrased as "the best approach with the advice from pundits is to do the opposite of what they say!"

I'm being a little unfair, there are some awesome investors on Ausbiz (they just happen to be the minority)

Great contributions @mikebrisy and @Strawman and @topowl

We all need to remember incentives here, as Charlie regularly reminded us. What's the incentive of a fund manager? To get more funds under management. What's the incentive of a market commenting newsletter service? To get more paying subscribers.

So what behaviour should we expect? Attention grabbing efforts to convert more investors into those outcomes.

Doesn't mean they are all shysters or definitely have no skill...but the best test is long term performance to determine the probabilities of it being skill rather than luck. For me, that means if I can't outperform the market on average, after 10+ years, I will pack up my stock pickers tent and head off to the Index ETF campsite. And I'll do that knowing I gave it my best shot but I didn't seem to have any real edge.

Marcus Padley has changed his mind today!

I also topped up on the dip in IVV yesterday at around 54. Not sure if that was a good idea but it is up today (23 Apr). So far so good ...

Great now i can sleep soundly again......

The only problem with following folks who change their mind this often is they can do it again before you are fully bedding in their last tip/call. Can't see how that will work sustainably for moi personally.

The Mikebrisy Hyothesis cannot be invalidated :D

One point mentioned at a lecture course is that we should try to embrace volatility not run away.

The moves in ORG to below 9.00 and back to 10 and IVV SP500 ETF down 6% this week when I bought/added seem more emotional driven than fundamental. Although I am aware prices could go lower but I think there's already enough news priced in

Walking the dog in the park while markets experience such volatility sometimes isn't the smart thing to do.

Markets throwing a tantrum isn’t exactly breaking news. ORG bouncing around and IVV down 6% feels like classic emotion > logic stuff. Fundamentals haven’t changed much, but the mood sure has.

Thing is, this kind of volatility is where the opportunities usually hide. If you're confident most of the bad news is already baked in, then yeah—walking the dog while the market melts down might be the most rational move you can make.

Panic sells, patience buys.