Putting this up as the first part of what will likely be the posting of analysis bit by bit over time. Also good to have feedback on key metrics on the case there is someone here who knows how to refine these costs, in particular mining a narrow reef system.

My approach to justifying a starter position in EMC is to understand the downside risk rather than the upside. With gold prices where they are (A$4600/oz), it is quite trendy to do small scale production/tolling to generate cashflows to fund ongoing exploration and EMC is the latest in this growing segment of gold junior on the ASX.

EMC has two potential production pathways at Revere and Mt Dimer both of which can be generating revenue and cashflows this CY. The later has firmer metrics and peer comps to conduct a financial analysis whereas as at Revere, its is less clear and mostly on the mining cost side, hence why I have used a short cut method that applies what should be a low end for margin (based on peers). What the analysis shows, is that the current EV of EMC is backed mostly backed by the potential cashflows it can generate this CY. I note investors won't see this cash back as it'll be put into exploration at Revere which has a large reef system to test (this is the upside kicker if the reef system has some scale substance to it).

So essentially, the setup is that current mcap has clear support from the potential to generate cold hard cash over CY25 which can be used to maintain ongoing exploration that could delineate a significant resource. The risk to the downside protection is delays in executing and there are several, of which some (like DEMIRS approval for Mt Dimer) are out of EMC's control. This risk is hedged a little given the raise in late 2024.

The metrics below are based on comp and info disclosed plus some of my own prop analysis and a chat with the co to clarify what I could. I note neither project has had scoping or feas numbers released to there is risk to my estimates in case there is a cost, material to be moved etc... that has been unaccounted for.