Forum Topics Set - Forget - Go Fishing
BigStrawbs70
Added 10 months ago

One of my earlier posts upon originally joining the platform was about a chat I had at a BBQ - let’s face it, that’s where all the world’s problems and solutions are discussed.

The short and simplistic version of the story was about investing approaches, and which one enables folks to focus on the world’s primary issue…. fishing. With Soul Pats posting its 25th year of increasing dividends - not to mention its ability to consistently beat the ASX - I thought it was a topic worth revisiting.

Soul Pats, Uncle Warren (Berkshire), and the NASDAQ make up (rounded) 45% of my total holdings in my SMSF, with Bitcoin making up 50% and various small caps 5% - the latter I use to scratch the itch that is direct investing as and when time permits. The other passive approach would be to replace Soul Pats and Berkshire with the ASX200/300 and S&P500 ETFs, but that, to date anyhow, would be underperforming. Of course, this approach doesn’t give me the multi-bag performance I see others achieving via direct investing but, that takes time and effort which I, personally, think is better spent on my boat.

So…. if you were to humour me that Bitcoin will at least match the market in the foreseeable future, what do you see wrong with this ‘set and forget’ approach? What would you do differently for a ‘set, forget, and go fishing’ strategy to your investing?

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lowway
Added 10 months ago

It's literally whatever floats your boat @BigStrawbs70 .

I don't have a problem with your strategy and would be out of line suggesting my stock picking with a more tailored sway towards franked divs for my SMSF, will outperform your strategy. I probably just enjoy the stock picking too much to give it away right now, that's all!!

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Lewis
Added 10 months ago

Hi @BigStrawbs70, to each their own, but If I was "setting and forgetting" I'd be in ETF's only, especially with super. For me super is a backstop, something I know will be there for me if everything else goes wrong. My best guess is that Berkshire, Souls and the NASDAQ outperform the Aussie market by a little bit over the next ten years or so ( I own all three), but there a no guarantees and as you say not by huge amounts. So it's really a massive bet on bitcoin, that'll make or break that strategy by itself most likely I reckon. The rest are likely to be around market averages or there about. Is the concentration risk worth it for a little outperformance (for me yes, but I plan on keeping a close eye on things). If I didn't want to keep an eye on it, I'd be in ETF's, then if Soul's gets wiped out by a meteor, or Berkshire falls into corruption and disarray in a post Buffet era, I'm ok.

The regret minimisation framework is a good one. In X years time, what will you least regret? Average market returns (missing out on outperformance), or taking on some concentration risk and it not paying off. It all depends on how much you have in super, what you're retirement plans are, how old you are and how much you have outside of super. So, I'm thinking about it from my point of view, which may be a million miles away from where you're at.

We'll all know what we should have done in ten years time, good luck


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Solvetheriddle
Added 10 months ago

@BigStrawbs70 , I don't know what to say. 50% BTC will drive the result. I don't know what BTC is worth, but somewhere between $2m and zero is my best bet (and it is not a normal distribution of returns with an expected value in the middle, lol). Index ETFs are probably cleaner for the rest, but no big shakes. Plenty here have large core holding and a small hobby punting fund, fair enough.

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Strawman
Added 10 months ago

I reckon "set & forget" is underrated, @BigStrawbs70 -- at least if you don't take it too literally.

There's real value in dialing back trading activity. It takes time for any investment thesis to play out, and there are always a few twists and turns along the way. If you jump at every shadow (or ignore every red flag) you’ll probably end up worse off. The sweet spot is staying indifferent to noise and volatility, while still tuned in to anything that genuinely undermines the long-term thesis.

Maybe "Prep & Peep" is a better aphorism? Do your homework upfront before taking a big position, then stay alert to material news. Day-to-day price moves and market chatter can be ignored -- but not developments that materially impact a business’s cash generation capacity and prospects.

Easier said than done, of course!

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