2356 GMT - A period of sustained share buybacks by Australia's major banks looks to be ending, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. They tell clients in a note that they no longer forecast any new buybacks once large lenders complete the A$2.6 billion of previously announced buybacks that are still outstanding. Supporting this view, they say that the recently announced tier-one capital ratios fell short of their forecasts by an average 25 basis points. They also expect the country's prudential regulator to raise tier-one capital requirements, which would likely lead to ANZ, Commonwealth, NAB and Westpac adopting new, higher target ranges. ([email protected])

2345 GMT - Wesfarmers's Bunnings business may not necessarily be able to replicate its earlier successes with pet goods and cleaning supplies when it starts selling auto accessories, Citi analyst Sam Teeger says. He tells clients in a note that an initial look at the hardware retailer's auto range showed some important brands are missing, and a number of price tags higher than those offered by incumbents Bapcor and Super Retail Group. Teeger also wonders how Bunnings's presentation strategy will evolve as the products are rolled out nationally. Right now, he doesn't think the category will justify wide-scale promotion at the front of Bunnings's stores. ([email protected])

2245 GMT -- Steadfast's bull at Goldman Sachs sees the Australian insurance broker's investor day as an attempt to ease any shareholders' concerns around succession planning. Analyst Julian Braganza tells clients in a note that the company showcased the strength of its management bench in response to the departure due to personal priorities of Chief Operating Officer Nigel Fitzgerald. Braganza says that Fitzgerald would probably have been the next CEO had he stayed. He adds that Steadfast's broking leader, Tim Mathieson, previously grew Australian insurer QIB both organically and through acquisitions. GS has a buy rating and A$6.50 target price on the stock, which is at A$5.77 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2244 GMT - Ramelius Resources isn't likely to restart Spartan Resources's Dalgaranga processing plant should its A$2.4 billion cash-and-stock takeover offer for the Australian gold explorer complete, reckons Macquarie. Instead, the bank assumes Ramelius pursues a larger upgrade of its Mt Magnet mill. Macquarie highlights that Ramelius previously planned to expand the Mt Magnet mill's annual processing capacity to as much as 3.0 million tons of gold-bearing ore for A$95 million. Now, Macquarie thinks its processing capacity could lift to 4.2 million tons/year at a cost of some A$220 million. Macquarie upgrades Ramelius to "outperform," from "neutral." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2227 GMT - Helia's organic capital generation does not look sustainable to Goldman Sachs analyst John Li. He tells clients in a note that, while the Australian mortgage insurer's loss of a key contract with Commonwealth Bank is a net positive for capital generation, it's notable that the company's organic capital generation has been supported by outperformance on incurred claims. This is not likely to continue, in his view. He also warns that the loss of the Commonwealth contract suggests that growth in new business remains challenging. Goldman cuts its target price 26% to A$3.70 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock. Shares are at A$3.66 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2223 GMT - Outdoor clothing retailer KMD Brands' shares in New Zealand fall 2.7% after a trading update that highlighted ongoing pressure on its gross profit margin. RBC Capital Markets said consensus expectations were for margins to expand by some 64 basis points in 2H. Still, analyst Wei Weng-Chen suggested that was a rare negative in an otherwise positive report. "KMD's 1H results were generally ahead of guidance and therefore consensus," RBC says. Sales growth was positive compared to KMD's prior 5-month update showing a decline. 1H Ebitda of NZ$3.9 million was above the top end of KMD's guidance range of NZ$1 million-NZ$3 million, while net debt was also better than forecast, RBC says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2201 GMT - A recent visit to Wesfarmers-owned Bunnings left Citi analyst Sam Teeger feeling a little more concerned about the competition facing auto-accessory retailer Bapcor. Teeger tells clients in a note that a new auto range flagged by Australia's largest chain of hardware stores raises the risk of competition for Bapcor's specialist Autobarn outlets. Teeger places a 30-day downside catalyst watch on Bapcor shares ahead of this week's investor day at Bunnings. He cuts his target price on the stock by 3.7% to A$5.43, also pointing to peer and market valuation multiples. Citi stays neutral on the stock, which is at A$4.96 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2142 GMT - Ampol was lucky that tropical cyclone Alfred made landfall in eastern Australia during the fuel refiner and marketer's lowest period of profit margins, Jefferies says. Ampol put its Lytton refinery in Queensland state into safe recirculation mode ahead of the storm's arrival earlier this month. This action cost Ampol around 10 days of production while the storm damaged the floating roof of a crude-oil tank. Analyst Michael Simotas estimates the Lytton Refiner Margin would have been around US$7.50/bbl at the time. This implies around A$10 million in forgone Ebit from some 1 million barrels of lost production, allowing for approximately US$1.00/bbl variable cost mostly comprising lower energy usage, Jefferies says. It retains a buy call on Ampol's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0418 GMT - Gold Fields and Gold Road, who jointly own the Gruyere gold mine, each appear to be pitching to their respective shareholders that they should own and run that operation alone, Barrenjoey analysts say in a note. "It is incumbent on both to outline the value of these competing proposals to respective shareholders," they say. The analysts reckon Gold Road stands to benefit "from both teams articulating the potential value of the underground, which has not previously been priced in by the market." They say Gruyere is an underperforming operation that should be producing 350,000 ounces a year, but hasn't because of a string of issues at the mine and mill. It produced 287,000 ounces in 2024. Barrenjoey has an underweight rating and A$2.25 target on Gold Road. The miner is up 15% at A$2.825. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires