0340 GMT - The selloff in Fortescue is overdone, according to UBS, which upgrades the miner's stock to neutral from sell. Analyst Lachlan Shaw says investors are too downbeat on the iron-ore price outlook, and that the steel ingredient should hold relatively steady around US$90-US$100 a metric ton for the next five years. The UBS analyst also says concerns about low-grade ore are too high, but raises UBS's estimated discount on Fortescue's ore slightly to 16% from 15% to acknowledge the possibility of reduction in China's steel production. UBS pares its target on Fortescue to A$16.70 a share, from A$17.30 before, following a 35% drop in the stock over the past year. Shares are pricing in roughly US$88 a ton iron ore indefinitely versus a spot price around US$102 a ton, Shaw says. Fortescue is up 0.3% at A$16.26. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0242 GMT - Xero's bull at Citi thinks that the provider of cloud-accounting software probably needs to boost marketing spend in the U.S. in order to step up its subscriber growth there. Analyst Siraj Ahmed says that while improved product-market fit should help reduce churn rates that are the highest across its business, the market is underestimating how much the Australia-listed company needs to reinvest to drive higher growth rates in the world's largest economy. He says that some will question the return-on-investment as well as the timing of any additional expenditure, but sees higher marketing costs as necessary. Citi has a buy rating and A$198.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.4% at A$158.93. ([email protected])
0224 GMT - Medical-imaging tech-provider Pro Medicus needs to improve the visibility of its business pipeline or demonstrate an ability to speed up market-share gains in order to turn Macquarie analysts more positive on the stock. The analysts moderate their market-share assumption to 10% in fiscal 2027, from 11% previously. They say to clients in a note that they have largely factored in the announcement of further contract wins and renewals. Pro Medicus has yet to demonstrate material uptake of opportunities in adjacent specialities, such as cardiology, they say, adding that they see the stock as fairly valued following a recent de-rate. Macquarie trims its target price by 0.4% to A$257.40, maintaining a neutral rating. Shares are down 7.6% at A$210.405. ([email protected])
0002 GMT - KMD Brands' improving trade conditions through its second fiscal quarter aren't enough to turn Canaccord Genuity analyst Allan Franklin more positive on the stock. He keeps a hold rating on the dual-listed apparel retailer's Australian shares, telling clients in a note that he is waiting on a stronger operating performance and a more certain earnings outlook before becoming more positive. Franklin points out that, while the improved trading conditions helped KMD beat its 1H Ebitda guidance and cut debt, the company still reported a net loss and negative Ebit. Top-line momentum, impacted by factors including North American wholesale conditions, is the biggest catalyst for sentiment, he adds. Canaccord cuts its target price 21% to A$0.33. Shares are flat at A$0.31. ([email protected])
2301 GMT - Paladin Energy says it is unlikely to be buying uranium on the spot market after heavy rain disrupted operations at its flagship mine in Namibia, but Ord Minnett thinks it's possible. Paladin says its contracts have protection mechanisms in place, meaning it can avoid buying U3O8 on the spot market to honor supply deals. "However, we suggest Paladin might reconsider this stance," analyst Matthewâ?<â?<â?<â?< Hope>
2255 GMT - Accent Group's bull at Citi thinks it is increasingly likely that the footwear and fashion retailer is tasked with running Sports Direct in Australia. Analyst Sam Teeger tells clients in a note that Accent has confirmed that it is in active discussions with Sports Direct owner Frasers Group for a long-term strategic agreement. Teeger cautions that any agreement remains subject to the companies settling on commercial terms, but nonetheless sees the move as a likely near-term catalyst for the Australian retailer. Frasers has a 15% stake in Accent, he reminds investors. Citi has a "buy" rating and A$2.57 target price on the stock, which is at A$1.795 ahead of the open. ([email protected])
2335 GMT - Sonic Healthcare lacks national scale in the U.S. despite investing A$2.3 billion in M&A there, and Barrenjoey says the path to growing its footprint is unclear. So, Barrenjoey explores a possible sale of the U.S. business and concludes it would be highly attractive to Sonic's bigger rivals. Assuming a sales price of 11-14x FY 2026 Ebitda, with proceeds used on a share buyback, Sonic's proforma EPS could change by -1% to +6% that year, Barrenjoey says. Sonic's return on invested capital could improve to 6.8%, from 6.5%. "While not necessarily financially compelling, the broader benefits of such a transaction include a decrease in maintenance capex into the U.S. region, and the ability to deploy future capital into higher returning regions such as Germany (via bolt-ons)," analyst Saul Hadassin says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2327 GMT - Tuas's bull at Citi admits to confusion over the share-price drop that followed the telecommunications provider's first-half result. Analyst Siraj Ahmed can think of three potential reasons for the 7.5% fall, but none of them strike him as sufficient. He suggests: a potential sell-down of the Australia-listed stock from a major shareholder, slower 2Q subscriber growth, or deteriorating average-revenue-per-user in mobile. He is unconcerned, telling clients in a note that Tuas's market-share growth trajectory in both mobile and broadband is intact. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$7.10 target price on the stock, which is at A$5.80 ahead of the open. ([email protected])
2225 GMT - Smart Parking's fundamentals remain intact in the view of its bull at Shaw & Partners despite a recent fall in its share price. Analyst Larry Gandler tells clients in a note that this month's 21% drop in the value of its Australia-listed shares can be attributed to the capital raise that is funding the acquisition of U.S. peer Peak Parking. He reckons that the decline presents potential investors with a good-value entry point, adding that he sees 30% compound annual Ebitda growth through fiscal 2029. Shaw & Partners maintains a "buy" rating and A$1.25 target price on the stock, which is at A$0.70 ahead of the open. ([email protected])
2221 GMT - Paladin Energy's latest update about its rain-hit Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia spooks Jefferies, which had already expected the company to miss annual output guidance. Paladin withdrew that guidance on Wednesday, citing disruption to mining and difficulties associated with processing saturated stockpiled ore. "The issues surrounding the extent of impacts to both the stockpiles and open pit mining appear more aggressive than our prior expectations," Jefferies analyst Daniel Roden says. Jefferies cuts forecasts for FY 2025 and FY 2026 production to reflect a more aggressive impact to the rampup of Langer Heinrich, and downgrades Paladin's stock to hold from buy. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0604 GMT - REA's bull at Citi looks beyond the near-term impact of CoStar's interest in its largest rival to reiterate his buy call on the Australian real-estate advertiser. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that News Corp-controlled REA's strong product execution should deliver double-digit revenue growth in its core residential advertising business across FY 2026. He also thinks that REA's moves to leverage data and personalize listings for buyers should also drive higher-value inquiries to agents, underpinning medium-term yield growth. Citi lifts its target price 20% to A$275.00. Shares closed up by 1.2% at A$235.51. News Corp. owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. ([email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires