Apologies for the lack of posts but it's taken me until late today to break out of our local hospital....
0502 GMT - Citi sees good value in both Hub24 and Netwealth following the selloff in shares of both Australian wealth platforms. Analyst Siraj Ahmed acknowledges that his decision to raise the recommendation on both companies to buy from neutral could be a little early given the potential for further market weakness and downgrades in funds under administration. However, he sees fees generated by clients' higher cash balances softening the revenue impact of any softness. He tells clients in a note that he expects structural growth to continue. Citi cuts its target price on Netwealth by 14% to A$26.50 and Hub24 by 16% to A$71.50. Netwealth is down 1.4% at A$22.80; Hub24 falls 3.6% to A$57.11. ([email protected])
0453 GMT - Technology One's lack of U.S. exposure and high-quality customer base makes the enterprise-software provider Wilsons' preferred Australian tech pick amid tariff-generated uncertainty. The broker's analysts marginally rate the stock ahead of Xero, preferring Technology One's sticky government and education clients over the cloud-accounting provider's top-level recurring revenues. They tell clients in a note that they naturally lean toward larger-cap tech companies given greater liquidity in their stock, lower likelihood of drawing on equity markets for growth capital, and better operational flexibility. Data-center operator NextDC is their No. 3 Australian tech pick. ([email protected])
0345 GMT - Miner Sandfire Resources gains a bull in Goldman Sachs, which reckons the stock is undervalued and will benefit from medium- and long-term copper tailwinds. Sandfire--down roughly 9% this year--has strong free cash flow and is forecast to be net cash by end of FY 2026 on GS's estimates. The bank says it is positive on copper, despite the likelihood of more volatility in the short term. GS upgrades Sandfire to buy from neutral while trimming its target on the stock to A$10.20 from A$10.40. Sandfire is down 3.9% at A$8.43 as Australian mining stocks tumble on tariff concerns. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0319 GMT - Shares of BHP have outperformed those in Anglo American so far this year, leading Jefferies analysts to wonder: Could a takeover be back on the table in 2025? BHP unsuccessfully tried to buy its rival a year ago, but the rationale for a deal--its relentless pursuit of copper--still stands, the analysts say. They reckon Anglo is "arguably on the cusp of becoming a more compelling target," given a significant part of its own restructuring should soon be done. "An argument against a move on Anglo could be risk of near-term earnings dilution, but BHP may be willing to do a deal that is perceived to be dilutive in the short term to become a bigger copper miner and better company for the long term," the analysts say. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0200 GMT - Australian miners are deep in the red on President Trump's soon-to-be-enacted 104% tariff on imports from China, the dominant buyer in global commodity markets. BHP and Rio Tinto, the world's two biggest miners by market value, are down 3.0% and 4.2%, respectively. Investors fear the escalating trade war between the world's largest economies will weigh on commodity demand. Australia's metals and mining index is 3.1% lower. Lithium miners face a double whammy after President Trump signed executive orders aimed at revamping the U.S. coal industry and increasing the use of the fuel to generate electricity. Part of the reason some investors are bullish on lithium--a key battery ingredient--is the expectation of massive growth in energy storage for renewable-power generation. Producer Pilbara Minerals is down 6.0%. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0132 GMT - A sharp pullback in shares of Australian wealth platforms gives investors a material opportunity to gain entry to two of the country's highest-quality financial tech providers, Wilsons analyst Cameron Halkett reckons. He raises his recommendation on both Netwealth and Hub24 to overweight from market-weight, alerting clients to what he calls a significant de-rate in their shares. Both are now trading at the bottom end of their historical averages despite what Halkett sees as a confluence of short- and long-term tailwinds. Cash management fees should mean that both companies benefit from any material increase in pooled cash from cautious investors. Wilsons cuts its target price on Netwealth by 23% to A$25.12, and on Hub24 by 21% to A$65.06. Netwealth is down 1.6% at A$22.76 and Hub24 is 3.6% lower at A$57.13. ([email protected])
0105 GMT - Guzman Y Gomez's bulls at Wilsons aren't too worried by the Australian fast-food operator's surprise closure of two local outlets in the March quarter. Analysts James Ferrier and Declan Carroll see the 3Q update as a slight positive, pointing out that the three new stores opened across the period was in line with their expectations. They add in a note that the slight slowdown in same-store sales growth across the quarter was expected due to an improvement through the prior corresponding period. Wilsons lifts its target price 1% to A$42.88 and keeps an overweight rating on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$31.25. ([email protected])
0053 GMT - Australian fast-food operator Guzman Y Gomez probably needs to work more on raising U.S. brand awareness to deliver on its regional ambitions, UBS analysts say. They think that the U.S. operation won't break even until fiscal 2029 and warn that the path looks bumpy, pointing out in a note that U.S. 3Q same-store sales growth was down on the prior quarter. The U.S. operation accounts for about 1% of UBS's sum-of-the-parts valuation of the business, but the analysts acknowledge that investor interest is high given the size of the opportunity. UBS cuts its target price 12.5% to A$35.00 and stays neutral on the stock, which is down 0.8% at A$30.86. ([email protected])
2348 GMT - The growing likelihood that federal governments in Canada and Australia will win reelection is positive for student-placement provider IDP Education, according to its bulls at Macquarie. The investment bank's analysts say that incumbent victories would represent the best outcome for IDP. Opposition parties in both countries are proposing more restrictive immigration policies, the analysts observe in a note. They add that IDP is trading at its lowest 12-month-forward price-to-earnings since listing in 2015. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating and A$16.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$8.88 ahead of the open. ([email protected])
2336 GMT - Ansell loses its bull at Macquarie despite the protective-glove manufacturer's confidence that it can offset the impact of U.S. tariffs through price rises. Telling clients that they prefer to be safe than sorry, Macquarie analysts lower their recommendation to neutral from outperform on skepticism that Ansell can fully offset the impact in this way. They think that higher prices could offset 75% of the tariff hit, warning in a note that macroeconomic headwinds for Ansell's industrial customers may be a bigger problem for earnings. Macquarie cuts its target price 23% to A$31.05. Shares are at A$29.39 ahead of the open. ([email protected])
2248 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is shaping up for a sharp opening drop amid escalating tariff worries, putting it on track to give back most of the gains from its strongest day since 2022. ASX futures are down by 1.9% ahead of Wednesday's session after U.S. equities fell deeper into the red amid the Trump administration's announcement of even stiffer tariffs on China. The DJIA lost 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.15%. All three had been sharply higher until optimism on potential tariff exemptions faded. The ASX 200 bounced back 2.3% on Tuesday, rebounding from Monday's 4.2% tumble, its worst day since 2020. ([email protected])
0700 GMT - President Trump's global trade war might be bad news for many companies, but Macquarie analysts wonder if it is just the boost beleaguered Australian lithium miners need. Escalating trade tensions could prompt China to stimulate electric-vehicle consumption, supporting demand for battery ingredient lithium, analysts at the Australian bank say in a client note. That would be good news for ASX-listed lithium companies, which have recorded significant declines in market value since the start of the year. Piedmont Lithium and Pilbara Minerals, both down 37% year to date, Tuesday rose by 8.2% and 5.4%, respectively. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0625 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 2.3% higher at 7510.0, rebounding from its worst day since March 2020 with its best performance since November 2022. The benchmark index opened higher on Tuesday and gained through much of the session. All 11 sectors finished higher, led by technology. WiseTech and Xero added 5.0% and 4.25%, respectively, as the index's second-smallest sector built on the Nasdaq Composite's week-opening outperformance. Banks ANZ, NAB, Westpac and Commonwealth put on between 0.9% and 2.8% as the heavyweight financials added 2.0%. Iron-ore giants BHP and Rio Tinto advanced 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively, while gold and lithium miners rose by even more. The ASX 200 remains in correction territory. ([email protected])
0622 GMT - The sharp escalation in global trade tensions and extreme trade policy uncertainty has triggered a broad risk asset selloff, says BlackRock in a note to clients. It is less clear if uncertainty will cloud the outlook for a little or a lot longer, so the fund manager has moved to reduce its tactical horizon to three months. That means giving more weight to the view that risk assets could face more near-term pressure, it says. BlackRock says it will reduce its equity exposure for now and allocate more to short-term U.S. Treasurys that could benefit as investors seek refuge from volatility. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires