Forum Topics Cash is King
pdevries
Added 8 months ago

Hi,

Does anyone use a strategy of keeping cash and using options? I know in volatile times they are more expensive, but it locks in a low price and allows you to buy in cash if it is to go lower?


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actionman
Added 8 months ago

In light of the current market volatility and ongoing discussions around timing the market, I thought this would be a good time to share my approach to cash. My strategy is simple: I focus on minimising risk and managing my emotions, rather than chasing maximum returns.

I generally use dollar cost averaging between my portfolio and cash. I don’t actively try to time the market, but in rare instances—such as during market panics with low liquidity when sellers struggle to find buyers—I step in as a buyer of last resort. In these scenarios, I may temporarily reduce my cash position. While this might appear to be market timing, I see it more as portfolio rebalancing in response to a liquidity event, driven by circumstances rather than valuations. This allows me to take a position in small-cap stocks or expand existing ones, often avoiding premiums and even securing discounts.

This approach is less about science and more about psychology. Instead of joining the panic, I shift into buy mode and focus on well-researched businesses.

How do I determine when the market is panicking? There’s no definitive answer, but I lean on the "taxi driver" or "shoe shine boy" analogy—when people who don’t normally discuss markets suddenly can’t stop talking about them. I also look for major record-breaking events, such as the largest X-day drop in Y years. If the drop sets an all-time record (e.g., NDQ’s highest one-day drop ever), I classify it as a market panic. Following extended months of market sell-offs, my cash position often naturally increases as a percentage of my portfolio, making it easier to rebalance during a subsequent panic.

Can I end up buying too early? Absolutely. But I’m not trying to pick the bottom. During the GFC, I rebalanced multiple times and never quite nailed the bottom—but that’s okay.

As a general rule, I maintain a cash position of around 5% for a few reasons:

  • To buy stocks from my watchlist during market panics.
  • To serve as an additional emergency fund.
  • To buffer cash flow for portfolio rebalancing.
  • To dampen the volatility of a portfolio heavily skewed toward small-cap stocks.

Conversly, when the market is rising I will occassionally take a profit to rebalance into cash. But the trigger for this is more relaxed but may revolve around annual rebalance, EOFY, RBA decison etc. I also take a similar approach to cash with gold ETFs to add diversification, particularly as a hedge against AUD fluctuations.

I’m curious—how do others manage their cash strategies?

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Solvetheriddle
Added 8 months ago

@actionman , my definition of market panic is extreme fear on the CNN index and even more so VIX above 32 (which is rare), both in play now.

in terms of cash, market timing is too hard. i usually run a few % cash, but this is not necessarily a target, its mainly shifting stock composition these days. i moved cash up to around 5% earlier this year and am now running it down for eg. I rarely take huge market views.


when i was younger and had an income, i used margin debt very effectively, usually around 30% max, but it gave me enormous flexibility to just buy when there were opportunities and pay down debt when there was not. i cant understand the millennial adverse reaction to the sensible use of debt, but to each their own.

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