Forum Topics PNC PNC Business Model/Strategy

Pinned straw:

Added 2 years ago

A wee update for Pioneer Credit.

Joe Terribile, ended his two year tenure (18 months as CIO) at the end of June. Needless to say, it's not that he was doing a terrible job (sorry), it's just that their new CIO, Ian Brunette is of fairer follicle and less apt to perform screen corrections with Tipp-Ex. On a serious note however, Ian comes with a track record of leading transformational change. He's worked with Tronox, HBF and Bankwest. He will bring some great experience to Pioneer Credit as they commence transformation to their new CRM software (C&R Software's Debt Manager Pro). This new CRM is a big bet for them and if well implemented, should enhance operational efficiency and allow for better process synergies across regions.

At the same time, Keith Johns (CEO), who was given 300,000 Indeterminate Rights in 2019 was able to vest 25% of them on the 1st of July 2023..These rights were given at a time where the company was brought to its knees for reasons I've covered in another post. A time that resulted in the high premium they pay for their debt today.

The management's proclivity to pay themselves well, in the face of appalling performance for shareholders, whilst touting the merits of their incentive structure in public fora is disappointing. I am however encouraged by their new appointment and feel that if they are able to deliver on their promises once they close the books on 2023, then there will be greater merit to Keith's narrative during the Strawman presentation.

I previously provided an assessment on their value and this CIO update provides further hope of more green shoots. I'm still looking to see an NPAT number of over $2.6m to justify 0.32. The real proof will include a measure of their ability to secure the same or greater levels of PDP growth in 2024 whilst reducing operating costs. Bring on the Annual Report.

PortfolioPlus
Added 7 months ago

PNC is in a tawdry industry.

Sure, the Banks will sell the ledgers to PNC because there isn't much competition left - but very probably on the basis that they (PNC) won't go after the poor blighters who have defaulted on their debts like a junk yard dog. But debt collection isn’t for the feint hearted and softly, softly equals less collections.

This, at a time when households are struggling to put bangers and mash on the table. Call me a cynic, but humans are only as honest & responsible as they can afford to be.

Then we have the complex accounting treatment of recognizing revenue streams & PDL valuations etc. Buffett was right, when he said, “there seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.”

This stuff is way beyond my circle of competence, which I will admit is getting smaller & smaller – plus – PNC might/may (and have had in the past) a capable management team which over rewards the top table.

I will admit I did well with the PNC Bonds I bought, they paid an extraordinary return; frankly I was happy to redeem them with no loss of capital. But to hold the shares, no thanks.

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RogueTrader
Added 7 months ago

An interesting in-depth analysis of Pioneer Credit (PNC)

"The point here is that we don’t need to get this down to a precise science when we have a downside conservative liquidation value of between $200-330M (depending on how punitive your assumptions are); one that is absolutely lightyears away from the ~$60M market cap ascribed to Pioneer’s equity by the market today. At today’s levels, this serves a monumental margin of safety for investors."

"Trading at a 3x FY26 P/E multiple and 0.3x conservative liquidation value, the business is materially undervalued on both a relative and absolute basis. "

https://www.tenvacapital.com/p/diamond-in-the-rough

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Strawman
Added 7 months ago

That's interesting @RogueTrader -- we've actually spoken to the CEO twice before (see here) but I haven't kept track of things, Past stumbles and an ongoing legal stocuhe with PwC arent what you like to see, but then again, you dont get a great bargain without some wrinkles


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mushroompanda
Added 7 months ago

@RogueTrader the mental gymnastics on the liquidation value of the PDP book is incredible. There’s double and triple counting as well as the incorrect assumption that predicted collections = asset value.

The PDP on the books is $330m. Bro is assuming it can be liquidated for $620m. I’ve never seen PDPs transact at a premium to book values - I’ve only seen substantial discounts - in the years I’ve followed CCP, CLH, etc.

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Strawman
Added 7 months ago

It pays to double check assumptions! I know you've really dug into these types of businesses previously @mushroompanda, so appreciate the clarification. Nice work

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UlladullaDave
Added 7 months ago

Agree, I don't think he understands how amortised cost works. An analog to ERC = BV, would be that he is arguing that a bond should be recognised as an asset that is the sum of the coupon payments plus the repayment of the principal.


It's quite hard to follow his line of thought because he makes some fundamental errors. For instance he thinks that interest income morphs into an amortisation charge.

Amortized cost accounting means that as long as our ‘interest income charged to amortized cost + the cost of PDPs throughout the period’ is greater than ‘cash collections received + any impairments of our PDPs’ then we have a growing carrying value period-on-period from which interest income at amortized cost is calculated and is subsequently growing from, creating optics of tremendous operating leverage and growth in the bottom line.

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Wini
Added 7 months ago

Not to mention they just took an impairment @mushroompanda so the Board/auditors don't see the PDP's worth more than book value!

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RogueTrader
Added 6 months ago

Another fundie having a crack at analyzing Pioneer Credit (PNC) is TAMIM:

"In the underfollowed world of ASX small caps, it’s rare to find a stock that combines deeply discounted valuation, tangible earnings visibility, and the potential for outsized upside. Pioneer Credit (ASX: PNC) is one such opportunity. Operating in the personal debt recovery space, this niche player is quietly rebuilding momentum, buoyed by strong sector tailwinds and a disciplined operational reset."

https://tamim.com.au/stock-insight/pioneer-credit-asx-pnc-investment-2025/

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