Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 01 May 2025 15:00:28
Jimmy
Added 9 months ago

0326 GMT - ASX's earnings-per-share growth will be constrained through fiscal 2029 by the Australian market operator's high cost growth, according to its bears at UBS. The investment bank's analysts see annual EPS growing at about 3% as ASX increases resourcing for its new clearance and settlement software. The costly project has been repeatedly delayed over recent years, and the analysts warn of ongoing execution and regulatory risks. They keep a sell rating and A$62.50 target price on the stock, which is up 0.7% at A$71.25. ([email protected])

0137 GMT - Coles remains the preferred Australian supermarket pick of Citi analyst Adrian Lemme, who sees potential for it to beat market expectations for fiscal 2026. Lemme writes in a note that Coles' new distribution and fulfillment centers could deliver benefits, including by drawing new customers in areas where Coles is relatively poorly represented by store numbers. He also takes encouragement from Coles' strategy of simplifying its multiple liquor-store brands, which he thinks should help improve brand awareness and value perception among consumers. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$21.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.6% at A$21.34. ([email protected])

0119 GMT - WiseTech's bull at Citi sees limited risk to the logistics-software provider from freight forwarders' recent results. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that updates from DSV, DHL and Kuehne & Nagel point to stable industry volumes in the March quarter, with some pull forward benefits from U.S. tariffs, especially for electronics goods. With lower China-U.S. volumes in April offset by increased volumes in other channels,Ahmed sees no material tariff impact on Wisetech's fiscal 2026 performance. There is some revenue risk in fiscal 2026 from a global slowdown, but lower costs could help offset this, he adds. Citi has a buy rating and A$115.00 target price on the stock, which is up 5.0% at A$92.98. ([email protected])

0100 GMT - Northern Star Resources' slow ramp up of operations in Kalgoorlie persuades Bell Potter to downgrade the stock to hold from buy. Analyst Bradley Watson trims a forecast for group FY 2026 production by 10% to 1.8 million oz of gold, with output lifting to 2.0 million oz in FY 2027. Bell Potter also expects cost inflation across all three of Northern Star's mining hubs, increasing all-in sustaining costs by 14% to A$2,040/oz in FY 2025. Bell Potter says its target price of A$20.85/share, down some 5.9% on before, reflects a long-term gold price forecast of A$3,800/oz. "Our recommendation would revert to buy applying a long-term gold price of A$4,300/oz," the bank says, noting the spot price is currently A$5,160/oz. Northern Star trades at A$19.11. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0057 GMT - Woolworths' bull at Macquarie thinks that the Australian supermarket operator's domestic food division performed pretty well in 3Q considering the costs of trying to recover lost market share. An analyst note from the investment bank points out that 3.0% on year growth in Australian food sales was higher than the average analyst forecast of 1.9%, signaling some recovery from the pre-Christmas hit of strikes at some of its distribution centers. Less positive are the widening losses at Woolworths' budget department stores, where Macquarie calls out management commentary on challenging clothing sales and a reliance on clearance items. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$30.80 target price on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$31.71. ([email protected])

0046 GMT - Now is not the time to be bullish about Coronado Global Resources given the risks to its balance sheet during a period of weak coal markets, decides Bell Potter. Analyst James Williamson downgrades Coronado to a speculative hold, from buy, even though the stock is trading at a deep discount to his discounted cash flow valuation of A$0.44/share. Coronado has unveiled measures to reduce cash burn and strengthen liquidity to weather weaker coal prices. It's also seeking to refinance its US$150 million asset-based debt facility. "In refinancing negotiations, Coronado may point to the roll-off of legacy contracts (Stanwell arrangements) from early 2027, freeing 1 million tons/year for export sales and reducing royalties," Bell Potter says. Its price target falls 54% to A$0.23/share. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0020 GMT - The delay between Endeavour Group's announcement of its new CEO and her starting work could create a period of strategic uncertainty, Citi analyst Sam Teeger warns. The drinks and hospitality group appointed Jayne Hrdlicka this week, but she doesn't assume the role until 2026. Teeger tells clients in a note that Endeavour is likely to continue trading at undemanding multiples until investors become more confident in its ability to manage medium-term margins. There is also uncertainty over rents and gaming regulation, he adds. Citi has a neutral rating and A$4.50 target price on the stock, which is up 2.5% at A$4.09. ([email protected])

2355 GMT - Collins Foods' bull at Citi reiterates its buy rating on optimism over the Australian fast-food franchiser's prospects in Germany and its constructive domestic outlook. Analyst Sam Teeger tells clients in a note that expanding in Germany appears to offer a lower-risk pathway to accelerating growth compared with the option of entering a completely new market. On top of this, he points out that additional interest-rate cuts--the likelihood of which was supported by this week's March-quarter CPI data--should be positive for the consumer outlook in Australia. Citi raises its target price by 2.3% to A$9.60. Shares are at A$8.24 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2342 GMT - Appen's bulls at Barrenjoey keep faith with the data-annotation provider despite a recent deceleration in revenue growth. Analysts Josh Kannourakis and Taylor Guyot tell clients in a note that their conviction remains high despite the sales slowdown in February and March, contending that the company remains well-positioned to win large-language model-related contracts. The balance sheet is also strong enough to weather the lumpy revenues, they add. Momentum in China looks good and the base business is now stable, they say. Barrenjoey cuts its target price by 23% to A$2.70 but stays overweight on the stock, which is at A$0.80 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2336 GMT - Macquarie questions whether the market has got it right when selling off Champion Iron stock relative to other iron ore producers in the wake of U.S. steel tariffs. Champion Iron's Australia-listed shares are down roughly 1/4 in value since mid-February. "However, Champion Iron sells concentrate to non-U.S. customers and iron ore is largely a China clearing market," Macquarie says. Also, a large portion of Champion Iron's costs are "oil driven", being freight, it says. "Champion Iron should be a beneficiary of the declining oil price," says Macquarie, which retains an outperform call on Champion Iron. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2307 GMT - Barrenjoey was puzzled by Mirvac's decision to keep its earnings guidance unchanged, given efforts to reduce balance-sheet risks in 3Q. Mirvac said yesterday that it sold a residential land parcel to Serenitas. Analyst Ben Brayshaw estimates the deal will generate A$10 million-A$15 million of Ebit, which is equivalent to 0.3 Australian cents/share of operating profit. "This raises the question as to why Mirvac did not upgrade its guidance for FY 2025 Operating EPS of 12.0-12.3 Australian cents," Barrenjoey says. It retains a neutral call on Mirvac. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2301 GMT -- Regis Resources's share price rally has Barrenjoey pondering the possibility that it could pursue M&A. Regis's stock is up around 80% so far this year, giving it significant firepower should it pursue scrip-based deals. "We have been concerned that Regis's short-life business and need to grow through inorganic growth was a key issue, and part of the basis of our underweight rating," analyst Daniel Morgan says. "If Regis can finance inorganic growth through its fully valued scrip, then meaningful value might be created with limited dilution." Regis ended Wednesday at A$4.51. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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