Forum Topics For the macro watchers: US midterms
Clio
Added 9 months ago

Not sure how widely known this point is, but I just got off a Zoom call with 5 US friends (all in different states), and they confirmed that the “campaigns” for the US midterm elections due in November 2026 will start in September 2025. Yes, 2025.

Apparently, when everyone gets back after summer to normal working life, the prospective candidates in each and every House of Reps seat have to release and publicize their policies - in September - so that they can then fundraise like mad in the lead-up to the seat-by-seat primaries, which are held in Jan, Feb, and March 2026. Having worked with US-based businesses for decades, I know that their “holidays” start at Thanksgiving at the end of November and no one pays much attention to anything until early January. So the September start date for fundraising makes a lot of sense.

I had assumed that policies would be declared at the time of the primaries in early 2026, but no. Even sitting Republicans will need to tell their voters in their electorates what their approach to the pertinent issues will be in order to raise funds for the primary contests.

This might explain the headlong rush by Trump et al to enact his plans. They actually have a very short period in which to show that their policies will work and deliver the results as promised. (No comment on how likely that is).

This also suggests that come September, we might see more politically-inspired fireworks and unpredictable upheavals as prospective Republican candidates find themselves having to convince their local party faithful that “all is well and going along swimmingly” or....

That should be INTERESTING. Also, I wouldn’t mind betting that the Chinese are well aware of Trump’s time crunch. So why would they be tripping over their feet to make any sort of tariff deal?

Yet more interesting times ahead.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 9 months ago

@Clio all interesting stuff, but i would be careful about tying yourself up in knots about these issues. it would be an interesting exercise for you to forecast events and the probability of them occurring, in your opinion, and also the expected market reaction and see how close you get in a year or so's time. if you are like me you won't be within a bull's roar, but it is a learning experience. i just buy strong companies when on sale (both subjective assessments of course) with full realisation that things could turn custard without much notice.

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Clio
Added 9 months ago

@Solvetheriddle - I make no predictions nor draw conclusions from any of this stuff. At least not in terms of the stock market. My observations are more in the vein of "break out the popcorn" and watch from afar to see what actually happens.

That said, I do think it's instructive to see how much or little change in markets occurs when challenged by different significant unusual/unexpected impacts. Seeing how stocks weather the shocks gives some "feel" for the resilience of markets as a whole and even of individual companies.

Also, of course, overreactions to macro events often create the best bargain hunting conditions, so I like to keep wide awake to any possibility of a sudden dip. At least that's my approach to most things "macro” and that’s why I’m watching events over there with more than usual interest.


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