0456 GMT - Australian department-store operator Myer appears to be putting the pieces in place for a return to growth and margin expansion starting in its next fiscal year, Morgan Stanley analysts reckon. They write in a note to clients that Myer is getting everything lined up now and can start growing in FY 2026. While its recently acquired apparel business has yet to turn around and margins remain under pressure, the MS analysts think that headwinds have stabilized compared with Myer's first half, which ended Jan. 25. They add that they see potential upside to EPS expectations from initiatives including debt refinancing, and from interest-rate cuts. MS has an overweight recommendation and A$1.05 target price on the stock, which is down 5.45% at A$0.7375. ([email protected])

0452 GMT - WiseTech's increased debt leverage is likely to be the market's only concern about the Australian logistics-software provider's acquisition of e2open, E&P analyst Paul Mason says. He points out in a note to clients that leverage will climb to 3.5 times fiscal 2025 Ebitda as a result of the US$2.1 billion acquisition. However, Mason says that this was well flagged by WiseTech, adding that the company expects the level to fall to 2 times Ebitda over three years. E&P has a positive rating and a A$139.00 target price on the stock, which is up 5.7% A$105.76. ([email protected])

0450 GMT - Citi analyst Thomas Strong picks Westpac over NAB in the investor debate between which is the better pick among Australian banks. Strong has a sell rating on both but tells clients in a note that Westpac has a greater long-term opportunity to improve return-on-equity through its simplification efforts. He warns that execution risk is high, and thinks Westpac faces stronger near-term margin headwinds. That said, he reckons that NAB has slightly worse asset quality and says that the positive share-price reaction to its most recent result only reversed its prior underperformance. ([email protected])

0347 GMT - AGL Energy's bull at Macquarie thinks the chances of the Australian power supplier generating a positive earnings surprise are receding. A note from an analyst at the investment bank points out that the weather heading into the Australian winter has been mild so far, while power pricing volatility is shrinking. Macquarie's base case is for flat earnings in fiscal 2026. That's still sufficient for the stock to keep its outperform rating, with the analyst note citing a favorable macro outlook from battery adoption and government policy. Macquarie trims its target price by 6.7% to A$11.47. Shares are up 1.0% at A$10.34. ([email protected])

0257 GMT - Rio Tinto says it wants to raise production capacity at the Amrun bauxite operation in Australia to replace output from two other mines that are closing. But Panmure Liberum analysts Duncan Hay and Tom Price wonder if there is more to it. "Rio's bauxite expansions in Queensland may just be replacement of fading mines," they say. "But don't rule out a move to capitalize on a Guinea-related shortfall in global supply." Bauxite prices have been climbing as Guinea cancels mining licenses, putting a cloud over future supplies from one of the world's top sources of the aluminum-rich ore. It is possible that "Rio has been engaged by China-based bauxite buyers, offering long-term offtake deals, part of a plan to mitigate rising risk of Guinea supply," the analysts say. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0235 GMT - Vault Minerals can comfortably fund a second-stage expansion at its King of the Hills plant--a "relatively low-risk, brownfield expansion of what is effectively a new project," say Moelis Australia analysts. In a note, the analysts say the potential for increased throughput was flagged in February. The material increase in ore reserves at the site reflects Vault's higher gold-price assumptions, essentially attributing value to lower-grade material previously viewed as unprofitable, they say. A medium-term production outlook, meanwhile, provides greater clarity to the market, say the analysts. Vault's balance sheet remains sufficiently strong to expect "some sort of capital management program as soon as mid-year CY25," they add. Moelis has a buy rating and A$0.70 target on Vault, which is up 2.8% at A$0.4625. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0140 GMT - How long will it take, and how much will it cost, for the growing Genesis Minerals to take shape, Moelis Australia analysts wonder. Genesis remains firmly in an investment phase, reducing free cash flow, they say. "Peers enjoy the benefits of high gold prices today," although do have less certainty around the medium- to long-term future, they add. Genesis's A$250 million deal to buy the Laverton gold project from Focus Minerals comes at an attractive price with granted mining leases, say the analysts. Still, the cash payment is "more than just small change" and "does somewhat contradict the impression we had (anecdotally) that the company already had everything it needed to meet its current growth outlook." Moelis has a hold rating and A$4.15 target on Genesis, which is up 1.3% at A$4.395. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0113 GMT - Rio Tinto has recently committed more than US$11 billion to building its new lithium business, including the latest joint venture with Chile's Empresa Nacional de Minería, or ENAMI, says Barrenjoey analyst Glyn Lawcock. The Australian investment bank expects the miner could spend more than US$5 billion more to fully develop its pipeline of lithium projects, Lawcock says in a note. Rio Tinto says it will provide roughly US$425 million in cash as well as its direct lithium extraction technology and other non-cash contributions to take the project with ENAMI to a final investment decision. Barrenjoey has an overweight rating and A$126.00 target on Rio Tinto. Shares are down 1.0% at A$115.82. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0015 GMT - President Trump's signing of four nuclear-focused executive orders marks the most aggressive U.S. intervention in the nuclear energy industry in decades, says Jefferies. The policies mandate regulatory reform at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, fast-track advanced reactor development, and support the entire front end of the nuclear fuel cycle, analyst Daniel Roden says. Jefferies says the executive orders could lead to some 35 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity by 2035, with other assets upgraded and kept in service longer. "This translates to an estimated uplift in U3O8 demand of 10-15 million lbs/year by 2035 from 40 million lbs/year, with initial core loads alone requiring 12-15 million lbs in early 2030s," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2310 GMT - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's 3Q update reassures Morgan Stanley, given its 1H result in February had been disappointing. While the lender's quarterly revenue missed MS's forecast due to a decline in non-interest income, this was offset by better expenses. Reflecting on Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's 1H result, analyst Richard E. Wiles said it had raised renewed concerns about management's ability to handle the volume/margin trade-off and contain near-term cost growth. "With this in mind, the flat 3Q margin and lower costs are reassuring," MS says. It retains an equal-weight call on Bendigo and Adelaide Bank. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2259 GMT - Morgan Stanley says consensus forecasts appear to be underestimating a meaningful earnings recovery by EVT's cinema business. The bank's forecasts for EVT's cinema Ebitda are 3% above market hopes in FY 2025 and 20% higher in FY 2026. "We forecast positive growth in cinema earnings from both greater admissions and spend per head, as Box Office supply improves in 2025/2026," analyst Angela Sutcliffe says. MS also expects EVT's hotels business to keep outperforming the market, growing earnings by a mid-single-digit percent over the next three years. EVT's shares are up 33% to A$15.12 so far this year. Still, "we continue to see an attractive risk-reward with cinema earnings set to recover over FY 2025-2027 and approaching catalysts to narrow the discount to sum-of-the-parts," MS says, raising its price target on EVT by 27% to A$19.00/share. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2246 GMT - Barrenjoey thinks the market is wrong to assume that Ramsay Health Care's business in France will experience another drop in earnings in the three months through June. Analyst Saul Hadassin notes his FY 2025 revenue forecast for Ramsay Santé is 3% above consensus expectations, while his Ebit estimate is some 23% higher. That reflects a sequential improvement in Ramsay Santé's earnings in the June quarter versus the prior three months, which is driven by the company receiving a full quarter of CICE relief and some seasonal benefits. "Our analysis suggests that consensus is factoring in a sequential decline in earnings in the June quarter, which in our view appears unlikely," Barrenjoey says. It retains a neutral call on Ramsay Health Care. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2215 GMT - The Australia Pacific LNG project's price review outcome for a long-term LNG supply contract with China's Sinopec is slightly worse than Origin Energy's investors likely expected, says Barrenjoey. Still, it was well flagged by Origin--which owns a 27.5% stake in APLNG--and is largely immaterial, analyst Dale Koenders says. Origin says the review resulted in a reduction in the JCC-linked contract slope, effective from Jan. 1, 2025. Origin expects its share of APLNG underlying Ebitda for 2H of FY 2025 to be some A$55 million lower. As a result, Barrenjoey cuts its FY 2025 earnings forecast by 2%. It retains a neutral call on Origin, viewing the stock as "a relatively safe place to hide throughout recent market turbulence." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires