Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 27 May 2025 14:48:48
Jimmy
Added 8 months ago

0338 GMT - WiseTech Global's US$2.1 billion acquisition of U.S.-listed e2open could be up to 10% accretive to the logistics-software provider's fiscal 2027 EPS, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They assume US$60 million of cost synergies, compared with WiseTech's guidance of at least US$50 million, but don't incorporate any revenue synergies into their forecasts. The GS analysts accept WiseTech's contention that combined earnings margins will eventually rebound back above 50%, and see debt leverage of 1.9 times Ebitda by the end of fiscal 2027. GS cuts its target price 2% to A$126.00 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 2.3% at A$107.16. ([email protected])

0130 GMT - WiseTech Global's new US$3 billion debt facility leaves the logistics-software provider with capacity for bolt-on acquisitions should the opportunity arise, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They tell clients in a note that WiseTech should have US$700 million in additional liquidity following its acquisition of e2open. The US$2.1 billion acquisition of e2open increases the analysts' conviction that Australia's WiseTech can achieve their medium- to long-term forecasts. MS keeps an overweight rating and A$140.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.6% at A$106.44. ([email protected])

0106 GMT - ALS's decision to raise as much as A$390 million of equity was a surprise to Jefferies. Proceeds from the raising, which is led by a A$350 million underwritten share placement, will largely be used to fund an expansion of its laboratory network. Analyst John Campbell notes that ALS expects the raising will boost its EPS by a mid-single-digit percent. But this forecast is based on expected run-rate earnings from lab developments in Lima, Sydney, Bangkok, and Prague. Those aren't expected to conclude until FY 2027-FY 2030, Jefferies says. "Though we note with the minerals cycle only just starting to turn up, with volumes up 2.4% in FY 2025, we see fair rationale in increasing capacity to meet this expected growth in demand," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0058 GMT - Monash IVF keeps its bull at Wilsons despite its guidance downgrade. Analyst Shane Storey thinks that the downgrade, which left the company's FY25 underlying profit guidance 9% below the average analyst forecast, is primarily due to softer cycle volumes across the industry. He points out in a note to clients that Monash still managed to maintain market share in the March quarter, which gives him some comfort on its prospects. He is conservative in his forecasts for cycle growth but still thinks that there is considerable upside to the stock at current levels. Wilsons cuts its target price 11% to A$1.25 and stays overweight on the stock, which is down 0.6% at A$0.775. ([email protected])

0041 GMT - Problems at Origin Energy's U.K. venture are unlikely to last long, Macquarie analysts say in a note to clients. They say that Origin's downgraded earnings expectations for its stake in Octopus Energy stem from lower power demand and lower-than-normal wind generation in March and April. They think that the drop in wind generation probably means that Octopus had to cover a power shortfall by buying spot gas generation. These weather-related impacts will pass, the Macquarie analysts add. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and A$10.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.6% at A$10.45. ([email protected])

0019 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Jefferies is confident that the logistics-software provider can successfully integrate its largest-ever acquisition while still focusing on other operations. Analyst Roger Samuel points out that e2open, which WiseTech is buying for US$2.1 billion, has itself made 13 acquisitions. This means that its employees have experience of integration processes, Samuel writes in a note. WiseTech's product development and acquisition teams are decoupled from each other, Samuel adds, allowing both to stay strictly focused on immediate projects. Jefferies has a buy rating and A$115.50 target price on the stock, which is up 2.7% at A$107.59. ([email protected])

2338 GMT - Eagers Automotive's new distribution agreement with China's BYD largely maintains the status quo in the near term, reckons Jefferies. Eagers has agreed to a term sheet that would extend its retail partnership with BYD for five years, with an option of another five years after that. Analyst John Campbell notes the new deal doesn't preclude more third-party distribution of BYD in Australia. Still, Jefferies thinks this won't amount to much in the near term. "As a significantly growing brand in Australia with the weight of BYD investment in the brand, it is understandable that other auto dealers would seek the opportunity to distribute this leading Chinese brand," says Jefferies, which has an underperform call on Eagers. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2320 GMT - Bell Potter thinks investors should go shopping for shares of mall owner Region. Analyst Connor Eldridge starts Region at buy with a A$2.65/share price target, viewing neighborhood malls as a relative self haven at a time of volatile equity markets. Region appears poised for strong rental growth in the near term, with average specialty gross rent significantly below average, Bell Potter says. It also points out that Region has the lowest tenant occupancy cost ratio among Australian reits, and tenant sales that have risen at an annual compound rate of 5% since 2018. "This healthy headroom, combined with proactive asset management (strategic acquisitions/divestments and tenant curation), positions Region to push rents higher," Bell Potter says. Region ended Monday at A$2.38. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2313 GMT - Origin Energy's improved guidance for its Energy Markets business reinforces Citi's conviction that the company can benefit from increased market volatility without necessarily relying on high-cost electricity generation. Origin now expects Energy Markets Ebitda of A$1.3 billion-A$1.4 billion in FY 2025. That represents an 8% rise at the midpoint compared to prior guidance of A$1.1 billion-A$1.4 billion. Analyst Tom Wallington says the upgrade reflects a stronger operational performance. That includes improved reliability at the Eraring power plant and favorable wholesale portfolio positioning which has seen strong electricity volumes, lower pool price purchases, and reduced green certificate costs. Citi retains a buy call on Origin. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2307 GMT - Profit headwinds facing Origin Energy's part-owned Octopus Energy business in the U.K. are likely contained to FY 2025, reckons Barrenjoey. Origin said it now expects its share of Octopus's annual underlying Ebitda to be between zero and a loss of A$100 million. Previously, Origin had forecast a positive contribution of up to A$100 million. Origin blamed the lowered guidance on unseasonably warm weather across March and April in the U.K., as well as impacts tied to the government's price guarantee subsidy from 2022. "We assume Octopus impacts are one-off in FY 2025," analyst Dale Koenders says. Barrenjoey, which retains a neutral call on Origin, forecasts a A$70 million profit contribution from Octopus in FY 2026. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0510 GMT - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's bear at Macquarie doesn't see anything in the lender's 3Q update to prompt a stock rerating. An analyst note from the investment bank says that the update is in line with expectations and nothing more. There are positives, including from benign credit quality and proactive deposit pricing, with the latter reducing and delaying margin headwinds from falling interest rates. However, increased stability in performance doesn't constitute a positive stock catalyst, the note adds. Macquarie lifts its target price by 2.5% to A$10.25 and keeps an underperform rating on the stock, which is down 0.2% at A$11.835. ([email protected])

0456 GMT - Australian department-store operator Myer appears to be putting the pieces in place for a return to growth and margin expansion starting in its next fiscal year, Morgan Stanley analysts reckon. They write in a note to clients that Myer is getting everything lined up now and can start growing in FY 2026. While its recently acquired apparel business has yet to turn around and margins remain under pressure, the MS analysts think that headwinds have stabilized compared with Myer's first half, which ended Jan. 25. They add that they see potential upside to EPS expectations from initiatives including debt refinancing, and from interest-rate cuts. MS has an overweight recommendation and A$1.05 target price on the stock, which is down 5.45% at A$0.7375. ([email protected])

0452 GMT - WiseTech's increased debt leverage is likely to be the market's only concern about the Australian logistics-software provider's acquisition of e2open, E&P analyst Paul Mason says. He points out in a note to clients that leverage will climb to 3.5 times fiscal 2025 Ebitda as a result of the US$2.1 billion acquisition. However, Mason says that this was well flagged by WiseTech, adding that the company expects the level to fall to 2 times Ebitda over three years. E&P has a positive rating and a A$139.00 target price on the stock, which is up 5.7% A$105.76. ([email protected])

0450 GMT - Citi analyst Thomas Strong picks Westpac over NAB in the investor debate between which is the better pick among Australian banks. Strong has a sell rating on both but tells clients in a note that Westpac has a greater long-term opportunity to improve return-on-equity through its simplification efforts. He warns that execution risk is high, and thinks Westpac faces stronger near-term margin headwinds. That said, he reckons that NAB has slightly worse asset quality and says that the positive share-price reaction to its most recent result only reversed its prior underperformance. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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