0437 GMT - Telstra's earnings multiple would look low compared with peers, if the Australian telecom provider monetized the recurring payments it receives from the government-owned National Broadband Network, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They point out in a note to clients that Telstra receives about A$1 billion in cash every year from the NBN. If the company chose to monetize these receipts in their entirety, they reckon that the rest of Telstra would be valued at just five times fiscal 2026 Ebitda. This is well below peers, they add. MS has an overweight rating and A$5.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.4% at A$4.73. ([email protected])

0428 GMT - Telstra will have the firepower to raise its dividend annually and buy back between A$7 billion and A$8 billion of shares through fiscal 2030, according to its bulls at Goldman Sachs. GS analysts tell clients in a note that Australia's largest telecom provider should have financial capacity of more than A$20 billion, which it can deploy toward a combination of buybacks, special dividends and an annual dividend increase of A$0.01 a share. Further asset sales could supplement this capacity, they add. GS keeps a buy rating and a target price of A$4.90 on the stock, which is down 0.5% at A$4.725. ([email protected])

0417 GMT - REA Group's bull at Goldman Sachs sees potential for the regulatory probe of the real-estate advertiser to weigh on its share price. Analyst Kane Hannan tells clients in a note that there is potential overhang for the stock from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's investigation, as well as from CoStar's imminent takeover of smaller rival Domain. Hannan doesn't comment on what the investigation's outcome might be, but observes that advertising commitments to News Corp-controlled REA are voluntary. It doesn't offer direct incentives to agents, he adds. GS has a buy rating and A$269.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.6% at A$246.02. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. ([email protected])

0145 GMT - Telstra's strategy day supports Jarden analysts' view that the stock's recent outperformance relative to the broader Australian market is justified. Analysts Liam Robertson and Tom Beadle tell clients in a note that the telecom provider's enhanced capital-management framework removes near-term constraints on dividends. They reckon that Telstra's expanded debt leverage also enables up to A$4.1 billion in share buybacks through FY 2030, on top of the A$750 million already announced. Shares are trading in-line with their valuation but they stay overweight, citing potential asset sales not factored into their base case. Jarden lifts its target price 2.2% to A$4.70. Shares are flat at A$4.75. ([email protected])

0137 GMT - Telstra still looks overvalued to Morgans analyst Nick Harris despite the strong possibility of further share buybacks. Harris acknowledges that capital management looks likely due to the Australian telecom provider's expectations of surplus capital, but he points out in a note that the stock's price-to-earnings is meaningfully above its long-term average. He doesn't like the risk-reward, despite growing confidence that management is focused on through-the-cycle earnings growth. Morgans lifts its target price 16% to A$4.00 and maintains a reduce recommendation on the stock. Shares are flat at A$4.75. ([email protected])

0112 GMT - Telstra's rising cash earnings yield give its bull at Jefferies increased confidence that its dividend will grow. Analyst Roger Samuel tells clients in a note that, with top-line growth looking achievable, Telstra is positioned to grow operating leverage and achieve cost efficiencies through increased AI deployment. He highlights the Australian telco provider's observation that it expects staff numbers to fall between now and 2030. Samuel thinks that free cash-flow yield can grow from 6.2% in fiscal 2026 to 7.2% in fiscal 2030, supporting his expectation of rising dividend yields. Jefferies lifts its target price 13% to A$5.30 and keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are down 0.3% at A$4.735. ([email protected])

0103 GMT - Appliance maker Breville's lofty valuation leaves it little room for error amid a volatile trade climate, says Morgans. Breville makes around 90% of its products by value in China and sells some 45% of its products into the U.S. That means it's significantly exposed to U.S.-China trade tensions, even if they have cooled recently with the U.S. reducing its tariff on Chinese-made products to 30%. "We have lowered our outer-year EPS forecasts in FY 2026-2027 by 9%," says analyst Jared Gelsomino. Breville's shares are down around 10% over the past two weeks. Still, Morgans says "increasing competitive threats and ongoing elevated macroeconomic volatility (tariffs/cost of living)" warrant a hold call on the stock. Breville is up 0.5% at A$29.33 today. ([email protected])

0050 GMT - Telstra gets a new bull at Macquarie in anticipation of the telecom provider's cost cuts and potential capital management. Analysts at the investment bank raise their recommendation on the stock to outperform from neutral, telling clients in a note that Telstra has multiple cost levers to pull on. The Australian company has identified A$4.5 billion in potential operating and capital cost reductions, which the Macquarie analysts see improving operating leverage. An improving EPS profile and strong cash generation also provides scope for higher dividends and buybacks, they add. Macquarie lifts its target price 34% to A$5.28. Shares are down 0.6% at A$4.72. ([email protected])

0044 GMT - Telstra gets downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS following the stock's recent outperformance relative to Australia's benchmark index. The investment bank's analysts point out that shares in Australia's largest telecom provider have outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 by 15% over the past six months, and are close to be what they consider to be fair value. They tell clients in a note that they are positive on Telstra's mobile and infrastructure businesses, but are cautious on its prospects in enterprise and government due to structural challenges from budget cuts and increasing competition. UBS raises its target price 2.2% to A$4.60. Shares are down 0.5% at A$4.725. ([email protected])

2357 GMT - Economic and trade uncertainty may have scotched hopes of an earnings upgrade from industrial property owner Goodman, but Citi sees a silver lining. Goodman keeps guidance for FY 2025 operating EPS growth of 9% unchanged. That's short of consensus expectations of around 10%, albeit with some weeks left in the fiscal year. CEO Greg Goodman says customer demand across the company's industrial portfolio is being influenced by trade uncertainty and its impact on global growth. Citi analyst Howard Penny notes that customers pausing on decisions has resulted in developers slowing activity. For Goodman that's allowing it to take advantage of lower competition on key sites, Citi says. It retains a buy call on Goodman. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2349 GMT - There's a good reason why Origin Energy might keep discounting its broadband internet offering as part of its arrangement with Superloop in FY 2026, suggests Wilsons. Origin gets A$5 million of Superloop shares for every 50,000 broadband customers signing up. Analyst Ross Barrows says Origin has a sign-up offer of A$15/month off for six months, along with 25,000 rewards points. "So, given the benefit Origin receives in both Superloop shares and from the addition of new subscribers, we believe they are incentivised to continue to offer discounts to maintain strong subscriber growth over the medium term," Wilsons says. This would benefit both companies and could see Superloop beat forecasts, it adds. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2345 GMT - NextDC's bull at Citi isn't overly concerned by commentary from another local data-center operator that customers are delaying new contracts. Analyst Siraj Ahmed tells clients in a note that infrastructure investor Infratil's view is consistent with his existing outlook, which incorporates Microsoft's pause on new contracts. This isn't news, he insists. Any potential concerns are further eased by industry feedback that Amazon Web Services is looking for what Ahmed calls meaningful capacity in Melbourne. Citi has a buy rating and A$18.70 target price on the stock, which is at A$12.98 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2337 GMT - ALS is acting prudently by raising as much as A$390 million of equity, given the investment needed to expand its laboratory network, says Bell Potter. ALS's net leverage increased to 2.3X at the end of March, from 2.0X a year earlier. That put it at the upper end of the company's 1.7-2.3X target range. However, pro-forma net leverage will be 1.7X. Analyst Joseph House says that ALS plans to immediately pay down its variable debt using some proceeds from the equity raising. That move would negate some of the impact on EPS from the equity raising, says Bell Potter, which rates ALS a buy. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2325 GMT -- Australian travel booker Web Travel's annual result looks strong to its bull at Wilsons, especially given the 4Q deterioration in the economic backdrop. Analyst Ben Wilson tells clients in a note that revenue margins were stronger than he had anticipated, and is pleased to see further evidence that they are stabilizing. Normalized Ebitda was also 1.8% higher than Wilson had forecast. Looking ahead, he says that the trading update for the start of fiscal 2026 is much stronger than he had expected, and sees potential for upgraded market forecasts. Wilsons has a last-published overweight rating and A$5.77 target price on the stock, which is at A$4.68 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

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2305 GMT -- Citi thinks a positive trading update could come from costume jewelry retailer Lovisa, including news of an acceleration in rolling out new stores. Consensus forecasts have Lovisa operating a network of 1,001 stores by the end of FY 2025. However, that looks conservative and a bigger network "is likely to be received positively by the market," says analyst Sam Teeger, even if there are questions about the quality of some new stores. Citi says any trading update from Lovisa could feature strong like-for-like sales, potentially driven by discounting. It notes that Lovisa typically discloses gross margins at its annual result in August. Lovisa may also discuss the longer-term potential of the new Jewells format in any update. Citi has a sell call on Lovisa. ([email protected])

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