Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 03 Jun 2025 14:49:50
Jimmy
Added 8 months ago

0148 GMT - The removal of a complex cross-holding is seen by Macquarie analysts as a key positive in the proposed merger between Brickworks and Washington H. Soul Pattinson. They write in a note that the combination will simplify a structure under which Brickworks owns 26% of Soul Patts, and the investment manager owns 43% of the building-products manufacturer. The analysts stay neutral on Brickworks, observing that much of its post-announcement rise was fueled by a jump in Soul Patts' shares, which are trading at a 40% premium to the underlying value of the company's net assets. Macquarie lifts its Brickworks target price 24% to A$32.20. The stock is down 2.1% at A$34.37. ([email protected])

0128 GMT - IDP Education's student-placement guidance falls well short of E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski's expectations. He tells clients that the Australian company's update highlights the significant challenges faced in the June half from global policy changes, with the decline in its placement volumes accelerating from six months earlier. The midpoint of IDP's earnings guidance range is about 28% lower than consensus expectations prior to the update, he adds. E&P has a last-published positive recommendation and A$17.80 target price on the stock. Shares are down 45% at A$4.12. ([email protected])

0054 GMT - Jarden is upbeat about Australian retail in the aftermath of last month's federal election. It identifies several tailwinds for consumers that will likely drive more discretionary spending. They include the ongoing increase in household deposits and strong home prices outside of Victoria state. Stronger activity in the housing market is a positive for stocks such as Temple & Webster and Beacon Lighting, analyst Ben Gilbert says. "We remain positive on the retail sector and expect spending to re-accelerate into June and FY 2026 with Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail some of the best positioned to benefit," Jarden says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0036 GMT - Citi is confident that demand for high-quality industrial property and warehouses in Australia will continue to grow. It points out that vacancy rates for industrial property are below 5%, which is among the lowest worldwide. Analyst Howard Penny identifies several tailwinds for the sector. They include the growth in global trade, expanding populations consuming more, the development of supply chains and an increased need for cold storage. Citi thinks demand growth will outpace new supply of industrial property through 2030. It has buy calls on industrial property owners including Goodman, GPT and Stockland. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0022 GMT - All eyes are likely to be on Perenti's free cash flow in 2H now that it has renewed several large contracts, says Citi. Perenti yesterday unveiled a A$1.1 billion contract with Endeavour Mining for its underground mine in Burkina Faso. That adds to other deals, including a A$1.02 billion mining contract with AngloGold Ashanti and a A$500 million contract for Gold Fields. Citi analyst William Park thinks Perenti will deliver A$166 million of free cash for the year. The bank highlights that contracts for the Cowal, Dalgaranga, Ernest Henry and Geita mines are also up for renewal in the near term. Citi raises its price target by 19% to A$1.90/share. Perenti is up 0.9% at A$164.5 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2349 GMT - Life360's intention to raise at least US$250 million through the offer of convertible notes could be viewed as a precursor to forthcoming M&A activity, RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen says. Chen points out in a note to clients that the location-app developer doesn't appear to need cash to fund ongoing operations, with US$169 million in cash and cash equivalents at March 31. It is also guiding for 2025 Ebitda of US$65 million-US$75 million, he adds. Life360 says it will use the funds for general corporate purposes, which could include acquisitions or strategic investments. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and A$30.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$33.14 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2340 GMT - Rio Tinto loses a bull in Jefferies as headwinds mount, including a coming CEO changeover, rising tariffs on U.S. aluminum imports and expectations of softer iron-ore prices ahead, analysts at the U.S. bank say. They also raise concerns about how much it will cost the company to develop its new lithium business. "We do not believe that Rio is 'broken,'" the analysts say. "We just consider the risk/reward tradeoff to be more balanced following recent developments." Jefferies downgrades the stock to hold from buy. It cuts its target on the miner's Australian shares by 22% to A$115 and on its London-listed stock by 19% to 4,600p. The analysts say they prefer Glencore, Anglo and Vale over Rio and BHP. Rio Tinto ended Monday in Sydney at A$110.75. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2335 GMT - Brickworks loses its bull at Ord Minnett on the share-price surge that followed news that the Australian building-product maker will merge with investment manager Washington H. Soul Pattinson. Analyst James Casey lowers his recommendation to hold from accumulate, telling clients in a note that the proposed merger realizes value for Brickworks shareholders. Looking further ahead, he sees the move as offering shareholders exposure to a larger, well-capitalized, more diversified company. Ord Minnett raises its target price by 16% to A$34.90. Shares are at A$35.10 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2302 GMT - Mineral Resources' Onslow iron-ore project can start contributing to earnings in FY 2026. That was Jefferies's takeaway from a visit to the operation in Western Australia. MinRes has experienced early setbacks to production at Onslow, including from the availability of trucks. Still, analyst Mitch Ryan points out that Onslow's performance has improved materially over the past three weeks. Annualized production is tracking at 22 million tons of iron ore. That is still well short of 35 million tons/year targeted for the end of June. Jefferies expects risks to reaching the operation's target capacity will decrease. Jefferies sees MinRes's effort to upgrade the haul road at Onslow is due to be completed in 1H of 2026. Jefferies has a "buy" call on MinRes. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2217 GMT - Perenti's A$1.1 billion contract with Endeavour Mining for its underground mine in Burkina Faso cheers Euroz Hartleys. That's because it comes hot on the heels of a A$1.02 billion mining contract with AngloGold Ashanti, and a A$500 million contract for Gold Fields. Analyst Gavin Allen says the wins were well telegraphed. Still, they lengthen Perenti's orderbook and show the company can deliver on what it promised. They also bolster investors' confidence in Perenti's ability to achieve guidance. "Perenti is in our view one of a handful of companies in our coverage universe that can trade up into results simply by hitting numbers," Euroz Hartleys says. It retains a buy call on Perenti's stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0553 GMT - Lower interest rates look set to weigh on Australian banks' margins despite lenders' capacity to cut the rates they offer savers, Macquarie analysts say. They tell clients in a note that Westpac experienced little pushback when it slashed a savings rate by 120 basis points in April. This suggests to the Macquarie analysts that lenders could have the capacity to cut their bonus saver base rates by more than the Reserve Bank cuts the country's cash rate. Even so, they say lower rates still represent a drag for margins. Term-deposit spreads have been unstable and are generally tracking marginally worse for banks, they add. ([email protected])

0546 GMT - Wilsons analysts' enthusiasm for Select Harvests' ongoing business improvement initiatives is countered by the prospect of higher water costs and moderating momentum in spot almond prices. They tell clients in a note that the almond farmer's first-half EBIT was well ahead of their expectations, although this is largely attributable to accounting standards. They see water costs rising and worry a little over the moderating momentum in spot nut prices over recent weeks, prompting them to slightly trim their EPS forecasts. They raise their target price by 2% to A$4.83 after rolling forward their valuation, and keep a market-weight rating on the stock, which is down 3% at A$4.52. ([email protected])

0517 GMT - Australian bank stocks could continue to underperform relative to global peers amid easing regulation elsewhere, Citi analyst Thomas Strong warns. He points to potential easing of U.S. supplementary leverage requirements and mooted changes in France as examples of possible regulatory relaxation that does not seem to be a theme in Australia. However, Strong writes in a note that he does see opportunities for reform, particularly on Australian banks' high capital levels. ([email protected])

0500 GMT - Judo Capital's investor day is likely to focus on the Australian business lender's strategy rather than its near-term earnings outlook, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They don't expect any elaboration on Judo's existing outlook for 50% pre-tax profit growth in fiscal 2026, but would like to ask how competitive dynamics are affecting its ability to attract and retain bankers. The MS analysts write in a note that they expect commentary on competition, technology and scale, risk appetite, and capital. MS has an overweight rating and A$2.10 target price on the stock, which is down 2.3% at A$1.3925. ([email protected])

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