Okay, these are my rough thoughts about the future of FDV. All speculation, no skill!
FDV is pretty much a SPAC. It's been buying up potential companies with the prospect of growth, amalgamation into groups and then sale. 360 LATAM has been pitched as a NASDAQ float at some point in the future and Zameen, of which they own 30%, has been talked about being floated or sold as well.
Firstly, Zameen. It was started by the Khan family and was going gangbusters until Pakistan's economy hit the skids. Things appear to have stabilised here, but we'll see. Now the Khan family have other interests, namely what was the Emerging Markets Property Group (EMPG), now based in Dubai. This group bought Bayut and Dubizzle and has now rebranded under the Dubizzle name. The Dubizzle Group is a collection of property, motor and classified companies similar to FDV and focussed on the greater MENA region. They have bought a few companies this year, namely Hatla2ee, an Egyptian car trader site in Feb and Property Monitor in May. This gives them a strong focus in the MENA region and is fattening them up for their float. Apparently Emirates NBD, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Morgan Stanley have been working with them for a year or so and the latest talk is of a float later this year targeting $500M to $1B.
If Zameen is in the float, then that is the catalyst for a rerate of FDV as they sell into the float.
If the float of Dubizzle group is a success, then they will be a cashed up group looking for acquisitions. Which is where MENA comes in and maybe Pakwheels. Dubizzle have the second or third place in these MENA markets where FDV has 1st through Avito and Tayara. Ripe for a takeover by a cashed up behemoth wanting to dominate the region.
Next is 360 LATAM. The aim is to list this on the NASDAQ and no doubt the structural review will have this as a focus. They were targeting $100M revenue, first USD then AUD, but revenue has stalled a bit. There was a problem with IRIS 1.0 and lead leakage, but apparently IRIS 2.0 has fixed that, so hopefully revenue will start to pick up again.. I think there's a good business here and the listing could work in the right environment, but the group needs to return to the growth it was previously experiencing. Nothing will happen here this year or maybe next, but watch this space.
And finally FDV Asia. These are more nascent businesses where the founder is still involved with approximately 50% ownership. There's work to be done, but if Patrick Grove and Catch Group want to wind up FDV after the above comes true then an approach to someone like the Digital Classified Group might create an exit.
The privatisation of Property Guru at $1.1B in 2024 and the recent equity raises by Dubizzle shows there's money looking for a home in these markets. FDV has a stable of quality assets which have just passed into profitability and are set to take off in the right climate. If you annualise the revenue across the group stated in the FY25 Q1 trading update, then FDV is currently trading on a touch over 1x revenue. And todays bounce to recover most of yesterdays fall makes me think there's a few others out there that can see a path to the future as well.