0426 GMT - Suncorp's bulls at Morgan Stanley reckon that the Australian insurer is excessively discounted compared to rival IAG. They think that Suncorp's capital structure and lack of aggregate reinsurance against volatility are holding back the stock. Addressing the latter could drive share-price appreciation despite about A$100 million in incremental costs, the MS analysts write in a note. They add that it could also unlock A$1.4 billion in capital equity through a quota share. MS lifts its target price by 10% to A$25.00 and makes Suncorp its top pick of Australian insurers. Shares are up 2.8% at A$21.765. ([email protected])

0418 GMT - Shifting trends including in what Australians perceive as value prompt Morgan Stanley analysts to downgrade Domino's Pizza Enterprises to equal-weight from overweight. They tell clients in a note that the rise of third-party aggregators is helping newer, more agile fast-food providers compete with legacy brands such as Domino's. They see consumers' preference for digital interaction, as well as healthy options and convenience, representing a challenge for operators traditionally focused on price and portion size. MS lowers its growth expectations for Domino's Pizza Enterprises, cutting the target price 36% to A$24.00. Shares are down 3.2% at A$20.62. ([email protected])

0402 GMT - The Lottery Corp's bulls at UBS reckon that analysts elsewhere could be underestimating its ability to deliver earnings growth over the next few years. The investment bank's analysts write in a note to clients that the Australian lottery operator's digital strategy is core to their thesis, helping drive revenue growth and margin expansion. Digital is likely to be among marketing priorities also including efforts to capture incidental physical purchases, they add. UBS lifts its target price by 6.9% to A$6.20 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 1.8% at A$5.19. ([email protected])

0341 GMT - Life360 has the flexibility to manage potential dilution from its convertible note offering, MS analysts say. They tell clients that the tracking-app provider's raise strengthens its balance sheet through to fiscal 2030 at a very attractive rate. The trade-off is potential dilution if the dual-listed company's U.S. stock passes US$122.22 a share. They think that the structure of the notes and the strength of performance that would be required for the stock to trade at such levels provide Life360 with options to manage the scenario. MS has an overweight recommendation and A$32.00 target price on Life360's Australia-listed shares, which are down 1.7% at A$32.675. ([email protected])

0337 GMT - Schedule changes at Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine are likely to have a small negative impact on the asset's valuation, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. The planned Panel 1 underground development has been affected by a pause on development work in the Entree joint venture area. Under the new schedule, Panel 2 South will need to start and ramp up much sooner than previously indicated, says Peker. But Panel 2 is lower in gold grade, and also has marginally lower copper and silver grades, he says. The change could make it harder for Rio Tinto to reach nameplate capacity by 2028, says Peker. It could also increase geotechnical risk, as sequencing was set for Panel 2 South to start in 2029-2030 after Panel 2 North was established, he says. Rio Tinto is down 0.6% in Sydney at A$108.94. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0131 GMT - Coronado Global Resources likely has sufficient liquidity to navigate soft coal markets. That's Ord Minnett's view after Coronado secured up to US$150 million of additional liquidity from Stanwell. The agreement with Stanwell includes a US$75 million prepayment and defers rebate payments accrued over April-December. Ord Minnett estimates the deferred payments are worth US$52 million. Coronado has agreed to supply up to 800,000 tons of thermal coal annually over five years, starting 2027. The Stanwell agreement comes soon after Coronado refinanced its asset-backed lending facility. Coronado also had a US$160 million cash balance in May. "This implies the business now has a total liquidity position of US$380 million and a lower cost profile for the balance of the 2025," says Ord Minnett. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0020 GMT - Monash IVF's share price slumps 22% after an incident involving the transfer of an embryo at its Clayton laboratory in southeastern Australia. Monash IVF says a patient's own embryo was transferred to that patient by mistake. It was contrary to a treatment plan that designated the transfer of an embryo of the patient's partner. Ord Minnett says Monash IVF's turnaround just got harder as a result. It expects an extra layer of costs will be incurred in FY 2026. The update clearly presents "downside risk to FY 2026-FY 2027 consensus forecasts," says analyst Tom Godfrey. Still, it sees deep value in Monash IVF longer term. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2348 GMT - Commonwealth Bank's A$300 billion market capitalization is due to a lack of better investment options elsewhere, rather than anything the Australian lender is offering, Citi analyst Thomas Strong suggests. He writes in a note to clients that Commonwealth's superior execution and profitability relative to local peers are insufficient to explain its elevated valuation. Strong thinks that investors have simply followed earnings momentum amid a broader herding into banks from other sectors. Passive money has driven a structural squeeze. He therefore expects the catalyst for this period of share-price outperformance to be growing investor conviction in ideas elsewhere. ([email protected])

2333 GMT - Citi analyst Sam Teeger remains cautious on Domino's Pizza Enterprises despite positive commentary from management on its performance in Germany. Teeger spotted a LinkedIn post by the CEO of the Australian fast-food franchiser's Germany operations, which stated that the business had just enjoyed its best ever sales week. He tells clients in a note that this is incrementally positive, but points out that Germany is a relatively small part of the ASX-listed company's business. Its larger Japan operation may still be underperforming, he adds. Citi has a neutral rating and A$23.82 target price on the stock, which is at A$21.30 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2307 GMT -- NextDC's latest contracted utilization numbers point to what its bull at E&P says is a fantastic domestic retail win-rate for the Australian data-center operator. Analyst Paul Mason tells clients in a note that the details around 6MW in space contracted between May 6 and May 31 are unclear, but is still positive on the implications. He says that he has heard that Google could be the client behind NextDC's contract win in Kuala Lumpur, but acknowledges reasons to think it could be Amazon. E&P has a positive recommendation and A$28.14 target price on the stock, which is at A$13.18 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2306 GMT - Develop Global's rapid commissioning of its Woodlawn base-metals mine prompts Bell Potter to raise its price target by 25%, to A$5.00/share. Develop Global has shipped its first parcels of lead and zinc. It is also achieving better copper concentrate grades than expected. Bell Potter says plant commissioning and the rise in output from the underground mine at Woodlawn are ahead of its expectations. "We have brought forward nameplate concentrate production rates one quarter to the September 2025 quarter," analyst Joseph House says. Its forecast for Develop Global's EPS in FY 2026 rises by 17%. Develop Global was last at A$4.23. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2258 GMT - QBE Insurance counts Jefferies among its bulls as its exposure to U.S. property catastrophe claims ebbs. In recent years, QBE has sold businesses where it lacked scale or was overly exposed to these property claims. "We note the FY 2024 results included $220 million of losses related to non-core lines that are expected to improve by circa $120 million in FY 2025," analyst Simon Fitzgerald says. Also, QBE had $187 million in restructuring charges that aren't expected to repeat. Jefferies rates QBE a "buy," and thinks capital returns could soon be back on the agenda. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2250 GMT - Jefferies raises its price target for Suncorp by 4.8%, to A$22.00, ahead of its annual reinsurance renewal. Analyst Simon Fitzgerald notes Suncorp typically announces the outcome of discussions with reinsurers in early July. This could give the stock a boost, he says. Jefferies thinks Suncorp is likely to record a better-than-budget perils experience for 2H of FY 2025. "We expect capital to be a focus with comments at the 1H result that an on-market buyback was being considered," Jefferies adds. It retains a "hold" call on Suncorp, which was last at A$21.17. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires