Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 13 Jun 2025 15:01:21
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Added 6 months ago

0404 GMT - The cost implications of ASX's five-year strategy are gradually becoming clearer to its bears at UBS. The Australian market operator is two years into the strategy and its cost outlook is continuing to creep higher, UBS analysts tell clients in a note. They say that the company's critical technology transformation appears to be on track, but see depreciation and amortization costs rapidly rising as ASX progresses its multi-year capital expenditure catch-up. The prospects of offsetting this through revenue gains are unclear, they add. UBS trims its target price by 0.6% to A$69.10 and keeps a sell rating on the stock. Shares are up 1.0% at A$72.69. ([email protected])

0236 GMT - Perseus Mining's five-year plan is a mixed bag for investors, with production 9% higher than consensus, while costs and capex are also above market expectations, Macquarie analysts say. Its average all-in sustaining cost estimate for the period is 7% above the Visible Alpha consensus, while expected growth capex is 40% higher, say the analysts. Still, the higher forecast output prompts Macquarie to raise its target on Perseus by roughly 5% to A$4.00/share. The bank reiterates its outperform call. "Life extensions to Edikan and Sissingué are key to the stronger production, but attention now turns to the timeliness of Nyanzaga's development," the analysts say. Perseus is up 1.6% at A$3.82/share, as gold stocks rally following Israel's attack on Iran. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0154 GMT - Australian banks still have some temporary tailwinds that could delay cuts to their dividends, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They believe that ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac will all have to cut payouts at some point due to weaker organic capital generation, a weak earnings outlook and a potential increase to regulatory capital buffers. However, the analysts say that Commonwealth might be able to postpone the pain for investors by divesting its stake in payments platform Klarna. They add that ANZ also has stakes in Asian banks, while regulators should soon ease Westpac's additional capital requirement. ([email protected])

0141 GMT - Superloop's bull at Citi looks past the end of the Australian internet-access provider's current year and sees accelerating momentum in both its consumer and wholesale operations. Analyst William Park cites factors including the ramp-up of Superloop's contract to provide branded access to power retailer Origin Energy. He tells clients in a note that feedback from Origin points to continuing momentum in customer additions. Park also thinks that competitive pricing for higher-speed tiers could underpin market-share gains as consumers progressively migrate to such plans. Park raises his Ebitda forecasts by 1% for FY 2026 and by 5% for FY 2027. Citi raises its target price 26% to A$3.35 and keeps a buy rating. Shares are down 0.7% at A$2.85. ([email protected])

0130 GMT - Accent Group keeps its bull at Bell Potter despite the footwear retailer's weaker-than-expected trading update. Analyst Chami Ratnapala lowers her net profit forecasts for the next three fiscal years by between 17% and 20% on what she says was an 18% gap between Accent's FY25 EBIT guidance and the average analyst forecast. However, she continues to see Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts supporting a demand recovery toward the end of this calendar year. She also reminds clients in a note that Accent's partnership with U.K.-based Frasers Group will expose the Australian company to leading brands including Nike. Bell Potter cuts its target price 19% to A$2.10 but retains a buy rating. Shares are down 21% at A$1.42. ([email protected])

0129 GMT - Stocks of ASX-listed gold miners surge after Israel carried out a strike on Iran. Shares in Northern Star are up by roughly 5.1%. Newmont shares are 5.7% higher. Both are trading around a seven-week high. Spot gold is 1.1% higher, around US$3,424/troy ounce, as the strike fuels demand for bullion as a haven. The strike is also driving Australian energy stocks higher, while the ASX/S&P 200 is down 0.2% overall. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0103 GMT - Endeavour Group could beat consensus retail revenue estimates if Australians start spending more on liquor as interest rates fall, Bell Potter analyst Baxter Kirk reckons. Kirk initiates coverage of the liquor retailer and hospitality group with a hold rating. The potential upside from rate cuts is offset by likely margin pressure through fiscal 2026 from lower prices at Coles-owned rival Liquorland. He tells clients in a note that the stock's discount to Coles is warranted given these margin pressures, and other factors including management change and potential changes to gaming regulation. Bell Potter places a A$4.50 target price on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$4.125. ([email protected])

0059 GMT - The steep fall in Monash IVF's share price following another incident at one of its laboratories has raised the chances of it becoming a takeover target, reckons Ord Minnett. Monash IVF's share price fell by around 1/4 after it disclosed a new incident at its Clayton laboratory in southeastern Australia. That extended a stock decline that happened after an earlier incident in Brisbane. Monash IVF's CEO has since resigned. Analyst Tom Godfrey says these developments have heightened risks including weaker new patient volumes, potential doctor losses and increased regulation. "With Monash IVF now trading at 6.7x adjusted Ebitda (versus competitors at >12x) we see increased risk of Private equity/strategic interest," Ord Minnett says. Monash IVF is up 1.5% at A$0.67. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0058 GMT - Shares of Australia's large oil and natural-gas producers are at multi-month highs after Israel carried out a strike on Iran and declared a state of emergency ahead of potential retaliation. Woodside Energy is up 5.0% and Santos advances 4.8%, reflecting a jump in crude-oil prices. That puts both stocks on track to close at their highest level since February/March. Front-month WTI crude oil futures were recently up 5.3% at $71.64/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures were 4.9% higher at $72.76/bbl. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index is down 0.2% as investors rotate out of equities into less risky assets.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0054 GMT - Challenging economic conditions and a lack of near-term earnings visibility draw a new bear to luxury goods retailer Cettire. Bell Potter analyst Chami Ratnapala cuts her recommendation on the Australia-based retailer to sell from hold, flagging its declining sales and weakened cash position. She calls clients' attention to softer demand in the U.S., which accounts for about 50% of Cettire's business, amid the imposition of tariffs. She writes in a note that Cettire's focus on returning to profitability and repairing its balance sheet will constrain its ability to capture market share. Bell Potter lowers its target price 41% to A$0.28. Shares are down 19% at A$0.26. ([email protected])

0019 GMT - CAR Group's recent relative underperformance help supports the vehicle advertiser as Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed's top pick of Australian internet stocks. Ahmed observes that CAR has underperformed both jobs marketplace Seek and property advertiser REA over the past 12 months amid slowing U.S. growth and broader economic concerns. However, he reminds clients in a note that CAR's U.S. exposure includes boat advertising. The market is underestimating the growth potential here, he adds. Seek is No. 2 pick and News Corp-controlled REA is No. 3. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. ([email protected])

0003 GMT - Proposed regulatory changes to Australian longevity products' capital settings look unequivocally positive for investment manager Challenger, according to Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway. He tells clients in a note that proposals by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority could improve Challenger's capital position reasonably materially and reduce volatility in its statutory profit. He adds a note of caution, warning that the precise impact is still unclear and that no changes will be made until at lease 2026. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$7.55 target price on the stock, which is at A$7.97 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2349 GMT - Life360's twin advertising products show the app developer using its user-location data to provides a unique platform for targeting consumers, Jefferies analysts write in a note. They see this targeting as the key differentiator to Life360's ad offering. The analysts observe that Life360's Place Ads product will target ads at families based on their behavior and household context. Its Uplift product will link media exposure to physical store visits, they add. They think that the announcement of the products indicates that Life360's ad development is on track. Jefferies has a buy rating and A$32.06 target price on the stock, which is at A$32.33 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2311 GMT - Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway is skeptical about ASX's chances of hitting its medium-term margin target. He points out that the Australian market operator remains exposed to regulatory risk and costs. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission have both expressed deep concerns over ASX's operational risk management. Pittaway writes in a note that material revenue growth from new initiatives remains elusive. ASX aims to expand its Ebitda margin over the next two to four years. This would require either that new revenue growth of market activity to be stronger than Pittaway is forecasting. ASX lifts its target price 0.6%, to A$71.60, and stays neutral on the stock. Shares are at A$71.96 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2237 GMT - Jefferies starts Origin Energy at "buy," citing a positive medium-term outlook for its Energy Markets business and a rosy future for its Octopus Energy venture. Analyst Amit Kanwatia expects elevated wholesale electricity prices to support Energy Markets profit. Origin is also getting a better deal on coal costs in FY 2026. Jefferies thinks Origin's minority owned Octopus venture is under-appreciated. It expects Octopus to be profitable from FY 2026. Still, Jefferies notes global macroeconomic uncertainty has pushed oil prices lower, posing a headwind for earnings from Origin's Australia-Pacific LNG gas-export business. Jefferies has a A$12.05/share price target on Origin, which ended Thursday at A$10.78. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2228 GMT - Perseus Mining looks well placed for capital management even as it grows gold output over the next five years, reckons Canaccord Genuity. Development capex over FY 2026-FY 2030 is likely to total US$878 million. That compares to Perseus's US$1.2 billion of liquidity at the end of March. Analyst Reg Spencer estimates Perseus will generate some US$1.1 billion of operating cash flow over FY 2026 and FY 2027, given gold prices are at elevated levels. "In our view, this leaves Perseus in a strong position to still consider additional capital management initiatives," Canaccord says. It has a "buy" call and A$5.25/share price target on the stock. Perseus ended Thursday at A$3.76. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0650 GMT - Cochlear's bulls at Jefferies think the stock looks cheap given the market-share gains likely to follow the launch of its new hearing-implant system. They look past the short-term hit of downgraded profit expectations for the current fiscal year to highlight the potential benefits of the new system. They tell clients in a note that they had only expected two new products, so a system containing three is a positive. They say Cochlear's medium-term outlook is now stronger than previously assumed, with the new system's tech capability likely to resonate with surgeons. Jefferies lifts its target price 1.0% to A$3.11 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which closed 0.7% higher at A$272.31. ([email protected])

0504 GMT - Qantas Airways' lowered capacity guidance could put pressure on the Australian carrier's annual earnings, Macquarie analysts warn. They reckon that the cut, coupled with the airline's unchanged expectations regarding revenue per available seat kilometer, implies a A$200 million reduction in revenue for the second half of the current fiscal year. There is some mitigation for earnings from lower fuel costs, they add in a note to clients. Macquarie raises its target price by 4.7% to A$10.10 and stays neutral on the stock, citing caution toward its international operations from competition. Shares are up 2.6% at A$10.775. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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