437 GMT - The world is at risk of a global conflict if the Israel-Iran war escalates, says veteran independent economist Clifford Bennett. Suppose the U.S. becomes directly involved in offensive action. Then Pakistan, Turkey, Russia--and possibly China--could become involved on the other side, says Bennett, who has decades of experience commenting on global markets. Russia has signed a defense alliance with Iran, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear it will respect, he adds. "There will be cataclysmic impacts across markets as this war escalates, if it does indeed escalate." ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0217 GMT - Apple's focus on privacy and the lack of any obvious push to expand its devices' location-tracking capabilities help keep UBS analysts bullish on Life360. They lower the discount they place on the tracking-app developer relative to its peers after seeing no evidence at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference of an aggressive push into its devices' Find My service. Any move to expand or monetize location data could undermine the appeal of Life360's apps. The UBS analysts tell clients in a note that Life360's new advertising products should resonate with retailers and restaurants. They maintain a buy rating and lift their target price on Life360's U.S. stock by 25% to US$71.00. Shares closed at US$62.73. Life360's Australia-listed stock is up 0.85% at A$31.85. ([email protected])
0215 GMT - Andembry, a new treatment for hereditary angioedema from Australia-based CSL, will offer a 20% margin uplift compared with CSL's existing treatment for the condition, say Jefferies analysts David Stanton and Vanessa Thomson. Although Andembry will likely cannibalize sales of the existing treatment, Haegarda, the Jefferies analysts still expect an earnings uplift of US$49 million in FY 2026 from the new product. Andembry was just approved by U.S. health authorities, building on other recent approvals of the treatment in Australia, Europe, Japan and elsewhere. The Jefferies analysts keep a bullish call on CSL, saying the company "looks like it could continue to deliver mid-teen EPS growth." ([email protected])
0157 GMT - ASX's bears at UBS see intensifying regulatory scrutiny of the Australian market operator as a sign that authorities could be looking for quicker change to company governance. UBS analysts tell clients in a note that ASIC's new inquiry into ASX's governance, capability and risk management raises the potential for higher-than-expected costs in fiscal 2026. They suggest that the regulator might want ASX to make a more rapid or sizeable step-change than is currently planned. UBS keeps a sell rating and A$69.10 target price on the stock. Shares are up 0.3% at A$68.10. ([email protected])
0150 GMT - Amazon's A$20 billion Australian infrastructure investment could be good for industrial property owner Goodman and other data-center operators, Citi analyst Howard Penny says. Amazon Web Services is expanding its Sydney and Melbourne data centers over the next five years. Penny writes in a note that this commitment by a global hyperscaler to grow data-center demand across Australia is a boost for the whole sector. Citi has a buy rating on Goodman and a A$40.00 target price. Shares are up 0.8% at A$34.43. ([email protected])
0135 GMT - Morningstar analysts Angus Hewitt and Leo Wang say Virgin Australia's IPO price of A$2.90/share is too expensive. To justify that price, Virgin needs to increase market share at the expense of Qantas without lowering prices. Or the industry as a whole needs to maintain elevated load factors and pricing over the next decade, which Hewitt and Wang say is unlikely. Although Australian airlines are doing well currently, the analysts expect there to be more competition in the medium term. "We think conditions are cyclically, rather than structurally, favorable," they say. They argue that a price of A$2.60/share would be more reasonable, though they give a hat tip to main owner Bain Capital for selling at an opportune time. ([email protected])
0059 GMT - Santos's swift embrace of a third takeover offer from a consortium led by XRG surprises Morgans. Santos has allowed the consortium to scrutinize its books to determine whether it will make a cash offer of A$8.89/share, equivalent to US$5.76, binding. Santos's early endorsement, before confirmatory due diligence has even begun, is highly unusual in LNG M&A, says analyst Adrian Prendergast. That's because most boards delay a recommendation to try and extract a bigger premium and invite competing bids. "This either signals the board sees little scope for a higher valuation on closer inspection of its assets or it is prioritizing speed and certainty over price," Morgans says. Santos is down 0.1% at A$7.71. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
2307 GMT -- Approval from Australia's foreign-investment watchdog is a key hurdle in the way of a takeover of Santos. The energy producer has allowed a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. unit XRG to scrutinize its books to determine whether it will make a cash offer of A$8.89/share, equivalent to $5.76, binding. Santos closed at A$7.72/share on Monday. Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says the big gap to XRG's offer price suggests market skepticism that the deal would be approved by the regulator and government. Still, Citi says there is "a viable path." That includes XRG committing to develop more domestic natural gas. Citi points to the commitments made by Brookfield and EIG when bidding for Origin Energy in past years. ([email protected])
2242 GMT -- Australia's residential property market is improving and the timing suits Stockland better than Mirvac, says Morgan Stanley. Both companies should benefit from lower interest rates stimulating demand for homes. Stockland is heavily weighted to Masterplanned Communities, or MPC. Demand for MPC is traditionally more elastic to the residential price cycle, MS says. That means Stockland "should have earlier leverage to sales lift, and therefore revenue, versus Mirvac," analyst Lauren A. Berry says. MS estimates Mirvac may only have some 500 MPC contracts on hand. That means FY 2026 consensus for 1,800 MPC settlements looks a tad bullish, MS says. "On the other hand, we expect Stockland to comfortably achieve our 7,500 lot settlements forecast in FY 2026." ([email protected])
2232 GMT - A rival bid for Australian energy company Santos looks unlikely, according to Jarden. Santos has allowed a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. unit XRG to scrutinize its books to determine whether it will make a cash offer of A$8.89/share, equivalent to US$5.76, binding. Jarden notes that Santos has been openly exploring options since 2023. "Yet only Woodside Energy has showed interest before walking away," analyst Nik Burns says. Jarden lifts its price target on Santos by 24% to A$8.34/share. Santos ended Monday at A$7.72. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires