0441 GMT - Macquarie analysts stay bullish on lottery ticket retailer Jumbo Interactive, despite lower industry sales volumes, pointing to the stock's elevated discount. They reckon shares in Jumbo are trading at a 45% price-to-earnings discount relative to the industrial sector of Australia's broad ASX 300 index, marking its widest discount since 2017, they write in a note. The analysts think that market-share losses related to product mix will reverse over time as jackpot trends normalize. They say that should be a catalyst for the stock to re-rate. Macquarie cuts its target price by 6.1% to A$13.90 but keeps an outperform rating on the stock. Shares are up 1.15% at A$9.70. ([email protected])

0434 GMT - Lottery Corp's bulls at Macquarie aren't fully convinced that the Australian lottery operator's reduced leverage will herald capital management. A note from the investment bank's analysts point out that the Australian lottery operator has no excess dividend-imputation capacity to pay out more than 100% of earnings. That said, they acknowledge Lottery Corp's balance-sheet optionality, with leverage heading below the company's target range in fiscal 2026. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating and a A$5.40 target price on the stock, which is up 1.0% at A$5.28. ([email protected])

0155 GMT - While Rio Tinto expects first output at Simandou this year, UBS reckons exports from the giant iron-ore project will be modest through 2026. Satellite images show good progress on infrastructure development, UBS says in a note. However, there is significant work that needs to be completed at the mine sites, especially Blocks 3 and 4, it says. The bank expects the project to be impacted by rainfall over the next six months, after particularly heavy rains during May-to-October wet season last year. UBS also highlights political uncertainty. The military junta that took power in Guinea in 2021 is planning a constitutional referendum and return to civilian rule. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0125 GMT - Citi expects lithium prices will continue to drift lower until there are more material supply cuts from producers. The bank downgrades its lithium-price forecasts for the next three years by 15%-20%. That is the biggest revision made by Citi as the bank revisits its commodity price projections. Citi downgrades its spodumene forecast for the next three months to $600/metric ton from $700/ton previously. "We see prolonged lower-for-longer prices as needed to rebalance the market," the bank says. As a result, it downgrades Australian producers IGO and Pilbara Minerals to neutral from buy, and Liontown Resources to sell from neutral. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0109 GMT - Seek's bull at Macquarie thinks that Australian job-ad data backs up their continued positive view of the employment classifieds provider. The annual rate of decline in industry ad volumes was flat in May compared with April but has been broadly trending lower for more than a year. A Macquarie analyst note contends that the narrowing declines support an expectation that annual volumes will grow in fiscal 2026, driven by interest-rate cuts and a tight labor market. New product developments also look supportive for yield, they add. The investment bank has an outperform rating and A$26.75 target price on the stock, which is down 0.3% at A$23.69. ([email protected])

0046 GMT - Debt costs are unlikely to remain a headwind for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, says UBS. That's different from how it looked at the time of the Australian mall owner's 1H result in February. Then, its hedging would have rolled off from 85% in FY 2025 to 33% and 23% in FY 2026 and FY 2027, respectively. This would have resulted in a big increase in its debt costs. "However, this has since been addressed with HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's hedging now sitting at 50%+ from FY 2026-28," UBS says. It now estimates HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's debt costs at 4.9% in FY 2026/2027 compared with a prior forecast of 5.3%. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0041 GMT - Can Centuria Capital deliver significant growth in assets under management without raising more equity? UBS thinks it's unlikely. Still, the bank notes the environment for raising equity is improving. Centuria Capital has managed to grow pockets of assets under management, such as in agriculture, shopping centers and private credit. But the pace of growth has slowed relative to history. "As asset values stabilise and interest rates reduce over time, Centuria Capital should be in a better position to raise equity for new funds," UBS says. The bank expects progress to be modest, but it should reflect an improvement after recent challenging years. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0035 GMT - UBS is confident that Vicinity Centres's earnings can withstand consumer headwinds and lost income from development. It thinks the Australian mall owner's funds from operations will rise to 15.6 Australian cents/security in FY 2027, from 14.6 cents in FY 2024. Still, UBS downgrades Vicinity to sell from neutral. Its revised view reflects a stretched valuation and elevated expectations on development completions. "Although operating metrics for discretionary mall owners remain strong and fundamentals are robust, we are likely at the peak," UBS says. Vicinity is down 0.6% at A$2.505 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0031 GMT - Regulatory risk involved in the XRG-led consortium's bid for Santos is not only elevated but difficult to isolate or mitigate, says Morgans. The consortium is scrutinizing Santos's books to determine whether it will make a cash offer of A$8.89/share, equivalent to US$5.76, binding. Analyst Adrian Prendergast points out that Santos owns and operates assets designated as "critical infrastructure" by law, placing it squarely in the national security category. "This classification makes the transaction far more sensitive," especially given XRG's parent--Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.--is owned by a foreign government, Morgans says. Even a restructure or asset split is unlikely to resolve this issue, citing Santos's equity in the GLNG gas-export project, Morgans says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0032 GMT - Step One's bulls at Bell Potter see improving consumer conditions in Australia and the U.K. supporting their positive thesis on the ASX-listed underwear maker. Analysts Leo Armati and Chami Ratnapala make no changes to their forecasts, but call investors' attention to the macro backdrop. They point out in a note to clients that central banks in both countries have twice cut interest rates this calendar year. They add that recent Australian consumer clothing spending was up 3% on year, while U.K. retail sales have grown for 10 straight months. They anticipate 10% sales growth in fiscal 2026 and improved leverage the following year. Bell Potter keeps a buy rating and A$1.30 target price on the stock, which is up 5.4% at A$0.68. ([email protected])

2342 GMT - Lendlease has made good early progress in selling non-core assets, but UBS thinks momentum will slow from here. UBS assumes Lendlease makes a relatively fast exit around book value for its Australian retirement-living business and the TRX retail development in Malaysia. Those deals could together raise A$1.15 billion. However, selling the China retirement-living business appears more challenging, UBS says. It lifts Lendlease to neutral, from sell, as Thursday's closing share price of A$5.54 suggests risks and rewards are more balanced. UBS also thinks Lendlease's delivery of its strategy has been slightly better than expected so far. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 20, 2025 00:50 ET (04:50 GMT)