Your timing was almost bang on with mine @Nic123

All I'll say is, I feel your pain!

I've not heard of that property cycle, but with Aussie houses compounding at double the rate of inflation for ~30 years it doesnt seem to apply here! :)

One thing I've learnt is that anyone can rationalise anything after they've done it...

Looking backwards through the rear vision mirror is easy enough and any economist can get the output they're after when looking in enough places and manipulating the data!

The key thing with property is to look at the right decision for you at the time you're making the decision. I'm sure that in 2010-12 your decision to move out of property and invest in shares was a well considered and reasoned decision and that's all you can do!!!

Looking forwards, I look at supply (building and development growth) and demand (access to capital, borrowing power, employment data, population).

At the end of the day, everyone wants to be in Australia - why wouldn't you at a time like this!!!

Another thing to consider when looking at the statistics which is often overlooked is the what the stats actually measure.

One really interesting example is Hamilton Hill in WA. Around 10 years ago there was some rezoning which allowed significantly higher density where many were turning 1 block into 2, often 3 or 4.

What the stats measured is the median price of the full block selling, at say $500,000.

The next transaction for the same property was $400,000. However, that was after the property had the back yard subdivided off and retained by the owner. The market saw it as a $100,000 loss or down 20%, but in reality there was a 20% uplift because they were able to turn the $500,000 asset into something worth $700,000 by creating more value in 2 properties! The stats look at the market and think, "Market has tanked. What used to be $500,000 is now $400,000 - wow Perth must be struggling."

This has continued for years. The make up of property always has an impact on the statistics and none of the big data aggregators like REA look at this most important statistic.

I could rattle off a dozen examples of different suburbs which have this 'problem' and I wonder how that would fit into the property cycle...