0421 GMT - Oil fundamentals are unlikely to change significantly due to Middle East tensions, Morningstar's Allen Good says in a research note. The analyst points out that crude oil prices were up only about 1% in early trading Monday after the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. He notes the difficulty of predicting the path of oil prices in the near term and doesn't recommend buying or selling oil stocks based on speculation of the rapidly evolving conflict. Morningstar continues to highlight oil-leveraged equity names that are undervalued based on its long-term oil-price assumption of $60 a barrel. Front-month WTI crude oil futures fall 2.5% to $66.79/bbl; front-month Brent crude futures are 2.4% lower at $69.74/bbl. ([email protected])

0109 GMT - The auction for payments-terminal provider Smartpay is over, Bell Potter analyst Hayden Nicholson reckons. He doesn't see any chance of a rival bid now that the dual-listed company has entered a scheme for takeover by Shift4 Payments. Nicholson points out that Smartpay had plenty of opportunity to engage with potentially superior proposals following expiry of its exclusivity period, but no relevant news emerged. He tells clients in a note that the acquisition looks opportunistic on Shift4's part and undervalues Smartpay's quality. Bell Potter cuts its target price on Smartpay's Australia-listed shares by 13% to A$1.13, and lowers its recommendation to hold from buy. Shares are flat at A$1.03. ([email protected])

0106 GMT - Emerald Resources is expected to get its production and costs "back to normal levels" over the upcoming September and December quarters, Euroz Hartleys says in a note. The remark follows a production miss by the ASX-listed gold miner. While the latest quarterly result is disappointing, Euroz views it as an unusual event. The broker reiterates a buy rating and A$5.40 target on the stock. Emerald Resources is down 1.7% at A$4.53. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0100 GMT - Australian credit provider Resimac keeps its bull at Bell Potter despite the potential overhang of regulatory legal proceedings. Analyst Marcus Barnard acknowledges proceedings related to the lender's treatment of customers in hardship, but says that management is working to resolve the issue. He tells clients in a note that Resimac's new CEO is aiming to grow its mortgage and auto book, and that the former is continuing to perform well. Barnard reckons that Resimac can grow profitably thanks to a small but strong position in the mortgage market, and its developing position in novated leases. Bell Potter cuts its target price 9.1% to A$1.00 and maintains a buy rating. Shares are down 1.8% at A$0.82. ([email protected])

0049 GMT - Collins Foods' annual result is seen positively by RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner despite softer-than-expected top-line growth. While revenue fell 1.8% short of Toner's forecast, he tells clients in a note that the Australian fast-food franchiser's cost control helped Ebitda come in 4.8% ahead of his expectations. Underlying Ebitda margins beat company guidance, he adds. Looking ahead, new store openings are helping Australia track above Toner's FY 2026 forecast. RBC has a sector-perform rating and A$8.50 target price on the stock, which is up 16% at A$8.43. ([email protected])

0038 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' plan for a share buyback is viewed positively by RBC analyst Michel Toner, with a couple of caveats. The Australian vintner intends to announce an on-market buyback of up to 5% of its issued share capital. Toner says this is positive, provided it is supported by free cash-flow generation and the company can maintain leverage at its current level. He tells clients in a note that the performance of Treasury's so-called premium brands across the current fiscal half was a positive surprise to him. RBC has an outperform rating and A$10.80 target price on the stock, which is up 2.35% at A$8.26. ([email protected])

0027 GMT - Investors in Australian equities need to continue navigating heightened earnings risks, Macquarie says. The broader market carries an elevated valuation that has been supported by flows. Macquarie favors stocks that have upgraded 2026 EPS views and have more positive momentum. These include QBE Insurance, GPT, ResMed, and Metcash. Macquarie urges investors to limit exposure to stocks such as Reliance Worldwide and Orora that recently downgraded their outlook and have weaker momentum. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index is up 0.9% today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0024 GMT - Metcash loses a bull in Citi because it thinks consensus forecasts for the Hardware business in FY 2026 look too optimistic. Analyst Adrian Lemme notes that Australia's housing market recovery hasn't been as strong as it expected around six months ago. "Given the typical lag to housing starts of approximately three months, a more meaningful volume recovery for Metcash's businesses does not look likely until FY 2027," Citi says. It doubts that consensus hopes for a 13% growth in Hardware EBIT in FY 2026 will be achieved. Citi drops to neutral on Metcash, from buy. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0018 GMT - Hardware will be the key driver of Metcash's share price, reckons Macquarie. The early signs are positive. Macquarie notes that Hardware's Ebit margin improved by 40 bps in 2H. That has helped to offset subdued growth in like-for-like sales. Macquarie raises its forecasts for Hardware earnings as the business benefits from cost savings and Australia's housing market improves. Its price target rises 8% to A$4.00. Metcash is down 1.1% at A$3.76 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0012 GMT - Soft furnishings retailer Adairs's earnings have likely reached a floor, says Morgans. Adairs has signaled FY 2025 Ebit will be A$62 million-A$65 million. That's well below consensus forecasts even though sales are in line with expectations. The chief culprits for the profit miss were higher discounting and a weaker Australian dollar. Still, analyst Emily Porter sees an opportunity for investors as interest rates come down and sentiment among shoppers firms. "The stock has an undemanding valuation and a supportive dividend yield, which presents a compelling opportunity for exposure to a recovery in consumer spending," Morgans says. It upgrades Adairs to buy, from accumulate. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2253 GMT - Management of soft furnishings retailer Adairs may re-examine growth plans for the business after annual profits missed expectations, Ord Minnett says. Adairs signaled FY 2025 Ebit would be A$62 million-A$65 million. That was some 9% below a consensus forecast of A$69.9 million. Adairs said sales have been hurt by higher discounting and a weaker Australian dollar. Analyst James Casey cuts his price target on Adairs by 13%, to A$2.35/share, and maintains a "hold" call on the stock. Adairs ended Monday at A$2.05. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0656 GMT - The world is holding its breath to see how Iran will respond to U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities, but in markets there is a fascinating calm, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank. The country has said all options are on the table--including trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil and gas flows, the analyst says. But many remain optimistic that Iran will avoid a full-blown retaliation and regional chaos. It will likely want to prevent its own oil facilities from becoming targets and to avoid a widening conflict that could hurt China, its biggest oil customer, she says. Some are trading the idea that the threat of oil trade disruption won't materialize. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires