Forum Topics URW URW Selling Out and Lessons learnt

Pinned straw:

Last edited 5 months ago

URW is delisting from the ASX. Currently a CDI rather than ordinary share where 20 CDIs represent one stapled share on the Euronext exchange. I'll be selling because of the complexity to move but I was nearing the point of the thesis having played out anyway. I believe there is another 25% or so of value to go but this will take time to be realised. Happy with my total return of 12.6% CAGR for a reasonably stable asset.

Overall, I learnt the follow from holding URW:

  • Management having an "owner operator" mentality is a must. During COVID the previous management wanted to listen to the investment banks and issue equity at depressed prices. The old owners came back into the picture said this was the wrong approach and were able to ensure the capital raising was voted down at the EGM. Next month the company issues two tranches of bonds, one for 6 years 5 months @ 0.625% and another for 11 years @ 1.375%, the amount.... 1 billion Euros each and oversubscribed by 3 times! So much for a liquidity crisis!! The right capital structure can make a stark difference to your returns as a shareholder. The issuing of equity would have doubled the shares on issue from memory and ensured that my returns would have been even at best. I was very lucky the old owners came back and won the fight with management!
  • The importance of cash flow, liquidity and a strong balance sheet. This relates to the above comment. At the time it was clear the company had the required liquidity and cash flow to get through a couple years, enough to wait for the reopening. Having the liquidity on the balance sheet saved URW from requiring a highly dilutive capital raising at its darkest hour.
  • Always hold the highest quality assets. The reason URW recovered in my opinion is because their shopping centres were generally (more so in Europe than US) the highest quality large shopping centres around and were more than just your local shops but an attraction as well.
  • Back up the truck if there is a good deal on offer. Market can be wrong.
  • If someone tells you something is "dead" they are normally generalising too much, especially in the short term. Yes, behaviour will change over time but there are normally important nuances to understand, that is where the potential gains come from. When I bought URW, shopping centres were "dead" and were going to be ghost towns as we were all locked up and ordering online. This is view lacked nuances such as:
  • The human interaction and experience of going to a large shopping centre is vastly different experience to purchasing an item online. Some people go to the shops to meet with friends and shop together or even just to be in the free air conditioning!
  • The physical need for items today or the ability to "touch and feel" items which you can't do online.
  • It is not cheap to advertise online because other companies are competing with you to get the eyeballs (Google tax!), it is hard to get your brand name out there in that environment. A physical presence at a shopping centre is like a giant advertisement to get your brand name out there. I would guess consumers are more connected to brands they can psychically interact with compared to online brands.
Saasquatch
Added 5 months ago

This reminds me of a similar ideology during covid when solar and renewables really made their biggest demonetization of fossil fuels companies and the narrative that confused the ideas of what some jurisdictions globally wanted to happen with a move to renewables, over the tangible tested and true natural reflections of the world if that was to happen. See any fossil fuel share price during this period of fear and then see Spain, circa April 2025 blackouts.


Things are never as bad as they seem and rarely as good as they appear.

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Dominator
Added 5 months ago

I was very tempted to make a trade on coal under that same proviso, but I like to stay away from resources because I will admit I have no idea about the sector. However, it did feel clear can't just flick a switch, things take time.

"Things are never as bad as they seem and rarely as good as they appear." - Another related statement I like from a Value After Hours Podcast (potentially Dan Rasmussen from Verdad but might be wrong on the guest) is that share prices are 20x more volatile than the fundamentals of a business. Narrative/story drives the share price not fundamentals (at least over the short term). URW, renewables slump and AI are all good examples.

When writing my original post, I thought about the number of current examples for which AI is going to "kill an industry" or "that business is dead". I assume sweeping statements like that are almost always wrong. If AI is going to kill a business, why are you assuming they won't innovate to use AI? The use of AI may make the existing services significantly cheaper to provide, which in turn increases the demand for a product and creates greater profitability and/or value for the customer. On the flip side, using AI shouldn't be a must do for every business, there could be cases where the cost of implementing AI adds no tangible benefit or extra profitability to a business (at least at this stage where everyone is trying to figure out how to actually use the technology to their advantage).

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