0424 GMT - Catapult Group International's bulls at UBS see the sports-tech provider's recent share-price gains as evidence that the market increasingly accepts the size of its growth opportunity. Reiterating a buy rating on the stock, they tell clients in a note that the continued delivery of strong incremental margins is key to their confidence. They think that Catapult can grow cash Ebitda from US$15 million in its last full fiscal year, to US$41 million in fiscal 2028. UBS raises its target price 23% to A$7.00 on earnings upgrades and higher mark-to-market of Rule-of-40 peer multiples. The stock is up 2.2% at A$5.95. ([email protected])

0410 GMT - Australia's major banks can support margins through retail deposit re-pricing, as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to cut interest rates, Morgan Stanley analysts say. With further cuts to Australia's cash rate expected over the remainder of 2025, they reckon the country's four largest lenders will be able to mitigate pressure through pricing. They tell clients in a note that every 0.25% cut in the cash rate reduces the quartet's margins by an average of between 1 bp and 1.5 bps. They think that Commonwealth Bank stands to benefit the most, and ANZ the least. ([email protected])

0352 GMT - Amplitude Energy's effort to lock in a customer for more natural gas from its Sole field in southeastern Australia could be a bullish signal, suggests Canaccord Genuity. Amplitude has indicated it wants to contract an additional 20 petajoules of gas from Sole on a firm basis for later in the decade, analyst James Bullen says. "Given Amplitude has historically sought to contract 70% of its 2P reserves, we think this could suggest a 29 petajoules or +16% upgrade at Sole," Canaccord says. "But perhaps we are stretching the trend line." 2P refers to proven and probable reserves of natural gas. Canaccord rates Amplitude as a buy. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0110 GMT - Computershare's bears at UBS see weaker corporate-trust issuance as a potential headwind into its new fiscal year. The investment bank's analysts remind clients in a note that corporate trust is a key driver of the share-registry provider's margin-income balances. Uncertainty here prompts their lower yield outlook for the next two fiscal years. They see margin income as a headwind that will constrain group EPS growth to 1% in fiscal 2026. UBS raises its target price 3.4% to A$40.00 but keeps a sell rating on the stock, which is up 1.0% at A$40.55. ([email protected])

0053 GMT - Northern Star Resources' reset of its FY 2026 expectations has Barrenjoey pondering whether its growth strategy is broken. Analyst Daniel Morgan doesn't think so. But he thinks confidence in Northern Star's ability to execute on its strategy has been damaged. "Still, the Superpit mill expansion is just over a year away from providing a step change in production and free cashflow," Barrenjoey says. Northern Star's Pogo mine is performing well operationally and the company recently acquired Hemi, one of the industry's best undeveloped gold projects, the bank says. Northern Star is trading at a 15% discount to Barrenjoey's estimate of its net present value. "We don't think this valuation gap will close until the market sees evidence of better operational execution," Barrenjoey says.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0048 GMT - UBS warms to Domino's Pizza Enterprises following the share-price selloff that followed news that CEO Mark van Dyck will step down. "We think the risk/reward is now attractive," says analyst Shaun Cousins, when upgrading Domino's to buy, from neutral. To be sure, UBS notes Domino's faces challenges improving franchisees' Ebitda. It thinks consensus expectations for EPS in FY 2026 and FY 2027 are too high. But its buy call reflects Domino's push to realize more cost savings, a solid balance sheet and recent confirmation of its FY 2025 underlying profit. Domino's has roughly halved in value since the stock's February high. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0032 GMT - A US$10 billion demerger of Octopus Energy's Kraken platform could add A$2/share to Australia's Origin Energy, Morgan Stanley analyst Rob Koh reckons. He refers clients to a U.K. newspaper report suggesting that Octopus is looking to demerge Kraken into a standalone entity. Origin owns 23% of Octopus, a stake that Koh values at A$3.4 billion, or A$1.96 per Origin share. He tells clients in a note that a Kraken demerger at a US$10 billion valuation would add another A$2.00/share to this base case. MS has an underweight recommendation and A$9.46 target price on Origin shares, which are down 0.7% at A$11.47. ([email protected])

0030 GMT - The remaining three weeks of KMD Brands' fiscal year are particularly important, Forsyth Barr says, as May-July is the most significant trading period for its Kathmandu brand. Kathmandu's sales have been volatile, although a 13% rise through the first 17 days of June was its strongest performance for some time. Analyst Paul Laxton Koraua highlights several key data points. Discounting through 4Q to date has been higher and across a wider range than normal. Cooler weather in New Zealand and Australia has supported June sales. "Google Trends is supportive of a pickup in customer interest in June but website visits suggest some market share losses over recent months," Forsyth Barr says. It thinks operational challenges and balance-sheet concerns cap near-term upside for the stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0018 GMT - Tailwinds from rising defense spending help secure a new bull for additive-manufacturing specialist Titomic. Bell Potter analyst Stuart Howe initiates coverage of the Australia-listed stock with a buy rating, telling clients in a note that the company's management has deep defense-sector experience and has pivoted toward the U.S. He adds that Titomic's cold-spray technology is applicable to aerospace, natural resources and defense markets. The latter looks ripe to Howe, with the U.S. and NATO both increasing expenditure. Bell Potter puts a A$0.50 target price on the stock, which is up 1.8% at A$0.285. ([email protected])

2345 GMT - Breville's initial launch into China appears to focus on only a small part of the opportunity available to the small-appliance maker, Citi analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the Australian company's launch via online retail platforms is positive, but appears to be confined to coffee appliances. This category accounts for just 2% of China's small kitchen-appliance sales by volume, they observe. Citi has a last-published neutral rating and A$38.20 target price on the stock, which is at A$29.88 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

1919 ET - AML3D's bull at Bell Potter reckons that risks around the Australian 3D printer's long-term outlook are lessening with the firming of the U.S. Navy's collaboration plan. Analyst Daniel Laing tells clients in a note that the Navy's letter of intent looks strategically significant. His forecasts already factor in a material step-up in U.S. industrial sales, but he is nonetheless positive on the Navy's acknowledgement that AML3D's tech is pivotal to its additive-manufacturing needs. Bell Potter raises its target price 17% to A$0.35 and keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are at A$0.25 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2255 GMT - Northern Star Resources's reset of its FY 2026 expectations should allow investors to move forward, Jefferies says. The company now expects to produce 1.70 million-1.85 million oz of gold in the current year, down from prior guidance of 2.0 million oz. It forecast all-in sustaining costs of A$2,300-A$2,700/oz, which is materially above consensus expectations. "That said, the spend delivers production growth at lower cost and drives the company down the cost curve," analyst Mitch Ryan says. "We do see some risk on the as-yet-unquantified Hemi development spend and ongoing sustaining capital requirements across the portfolio." Still, it considers the reset to be a "key cleansing step" for investors. Jefferies cuts its price target by 9.1% to A$20.00/share. Northern Star ended Monday at A$16.80. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2247 GMT - Origin Energy's minority owned Octopus business in the U.K. could be worth 13 billion British pounds, says Jefferies. That would equate to A$3.59/share of value for Origin's 22.7% stake. It is well above the last equity valuation of Octopus more than a year ago of GBP7 billion, or A$1.80/share for Origin. Analyst Amit Kanwatia thinks investors recognize the potential upside in Octopus's customer service platform Kraken. Still, he says the optimal strategy to unlock this value for Origin shareholders is unclear. "A premature selldown appears to be less favored, whereas a separate listing may have scope to be a more viable option," Jefferies says. Origin ended Monday at A$11.55. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

1248 GMT - HSBC's retail unit in Australia could be a potential disposal target, UBS says in a research note after a local press report that the bank could soon announce the sale of the unit and keep its more internationally-connected corporate and commercial segment. This would be in line with the strategy of the new CEO, whose focus is on retail and commercial banking in the U.K. and in Hong Kong, analysts say. In terms of potential buyers, regional Australian banks and other foreign players are likely candidates, they say. Interest from Dutch lender ING would make sense given its retail-focused strategy in that market. ING has also recently reduced the pace of its buybacks, which could indicate a higher probability of M&A, they say. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires