0121 GMT - ASX's elevated expense profile looks set to keep weighing on the stock despite the Australian market operator's consistent underlying results, Morgans analyst Steven Sassine warns. He tells clients in a note that June was a good month for cash-markets activity on the Australian exchange, including a 35% on-year increase in total capital raised and 11 new listings. Average daily futures contract volumes for the 12 months through June were also up 19% on the prior fiscal year, he adds. However, risks around the company's ongoing technology overhaul prevents Sassine, and others, from becoming more positive. Morgans raises its target price 0.3% to A$72.20 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$71.12. ([email protected])

0116 GMT - Origin Energy investors already appear to be pricing in much of the value from the rumored IPO of Octopus Energy's Kraken platform, Macquarie analysts say. Media reports that Kraken will be valued at about 10 billion pounds appear about right to Macquarie analysts, who raise their longer-term Ebitda assumption for the business, which is co-owned by Origin through its stake in Octopus. However, the speed with which Kraken's valuation has been incorporated into Origin's share price limits further upside despite the Australian company's strong performance in domestic energy markets. Macquarie lifts its target price by 8% to A$10.94 and stays neutral on the stock, which is up 0.6% at A$11.505. ([email protected])

0039 GMT - Xero's U.S. growth prospects appear intact to its bulls at Morgan Stanley despite a major rival's push into enterprise-resource planning. MS analysts don't see any risk from Intuit's targeting of the midmarket segment, with Australia-listed Xero expected to remain squarely focused on small and medium-sized businesses. In fact, their analysis has increased their confidence in Xero's U.S. growth potential. They tell clients in a note that Xero has only a 6% share of what they say is still an immature accounting software market for its target cohort. MS has an overweight recommendation and A$235.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$177.14. ([email protected])

0032 GMT - Challenger could rubber stamp a share buyback at its result in August next year, says Macquarie. It assumes Challenger will move to repurchase shares worth up to A$750 million from 1H of FY 2027. That drives a 33% increase in its price target to A$9.30/share. Macquarie cites changes being readied by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. It expects APRA to implement new capital standards for life insurers from July 2026. Macquarie estimates Challenger's excess capital could increase by A$150 million-A$250 million with a change to Prescribed Capital Amount methodology. It could rise by another A$550 million if half of Challenger's alternative assets shift into fixed income, or closer to A$1.1 billion if they all move, Macquarie says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0018 GMT - Tourism Holdings' latest trading update confirms to Wilsons analyst Ben Wilson that global RV sales have yet to improve. He points out in a note that in the U.S. at least, lower vehicle sales are the biggest reason why Tourism Holdings' earnings are weaker. U.S. rentals have also been hit by reduced inbound tourism, he adds. The key positive that Wilson takes from the update is the improved rental outlook in Australia and New Zealand from overseas tourists, improved domestic demand and an expanded fleet size. Wilsons trims its target price on the company's Australia-listed stock 2.8% to A$2.12 and maintains a marketweight rating. Shares are flat at A$1.96. ([email protected])

1927 ET - Morgans is reluctant to turn more bullish on Australian real-estate investment trusts despite a discount between share prices and net tangible assets across the sector. The investment bank notes that industrial-focused reits, other than Goodman, are trading at a discount of some 19%. It's an even bigger discount for office landlords at 24%. "However, the limited scope for short-term net property income growth leaves us largely on hold," Morgans says. Stock calls include hold recommendations on Dexus Convenience REIT, Centuria Industrial REIT, Centuria Office REIT and Garda Property. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

1921 ET - Summerset's unexpectedly strong 2Q sales help to cement UBS's bullish view of the retirement-village operator. Summerset sold occupation rights to 222 new homes in 2Q, up 42% on year. This points to 1H sales of 354 new homes, well above UBS's forecast of 295. UBS lifts its price target for Summerset by 1.6% to NZ$15.75/share. "Our price target for Summerset implies a price-to-net tangible assets multiple of 1.3x, which is the highest in the sector," analyst Bianca Murphy says. "However, as the fastest developer, we believe this is justified as, historically, developments have been a key driver of P/NTA premiums." ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

1909 ET - Boss Energy loses a bull in Ord Minnett, which thinks any chance of a short squeeze sending its share price as high as A$6.00 has passed. Short positions in Boss are unwinding in an orderly fashion, analyst Matthew Hope says. Shorts have declined from a peak of 26% of shares to about 14% now. Ord Minnett cuts its price target by 32% to A$4.10/share. In doing so, the bank removes both a A$1.50/share premium for a possible short squeeze, and A$0.40/share due to a higher AUD/USD than forecast in March. It downgrades Boss to hold from buy. Boss ended Tuesday at A$3.96. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

1855 ET - Australian stock futures are pointing to a small opening slip for the S&P/ASX 200 amid continued worries about the Trump administration's latest tariff threats. ASX futures are down by 0.1% ahead of Wednesday's session, suggesting that the benchmark index will follow the soft lead provided by U.S. equities. The DJIA lost 0.4% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was barely moved. The ASX 200 finished Tuesday flat after recovering ground lost following the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise decision to hold interest rates. Economists had expected a cut. The ASX 200 has moved less than 0.2% in either direction for four straight days. ([email protected])

1023 GMT - The APAC banking sector outlook seems mixed given U.S. tariff measures, says Fitch Ratings. Effects could be greatest in Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan. Fitch has lowered Vietnam's banking system sector outlook to neutral from improving, and the other three to deteriorating from neutral. Loan growth, asset quality and profitability are likely to weaken given the markets' higher export sales to the U.S., says Jonathan Cornish, head of APAC bank ratings. Higher tariffs--or even uncertainty--will likely weigh on China and Hong Kong too, he adds. Both outlooks were already deteriorating due to economic headwinds, soft credit demand and exposure to troubled sectors. On the brighter side, Fitch sees credit growth upticks in India and Indonesia, and thinks Australia's and Singapore's banking systems will likely be resilient. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires